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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:33 · Justin Vogel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:18: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 34 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:53: Wayne Gallman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:08: Zac Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Cordrea Tankersley 36 Yd Interception Return (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:00MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.4%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q2 13:30MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.2%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q2 7:00MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q2 5:32CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 4, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%average punt
- Q2 4:47MIA 4th & 10 at CLEM 41, down 28Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.0%30% to convertField goal11.9%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call11.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:26MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 11:05CLEM 4th & 1 at MIA 27, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%71% to convertField goal96.0%−0.162% to makePunt95.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:46CLEM 4th & 12 at MIA 13, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.7%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%85% to makePunt96.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:14MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 42, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 5:37CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 38, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q3 2:26MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 27, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 0:18CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 46, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 14:12MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 18, down 45Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:11MIA 4th & 6 at CLEM 36, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%40% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.142% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:20MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 27, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:41CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 45, up 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 2:33MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:18CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:53CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.1%97% to makeGo for two60.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:08CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.6%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:59CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.3%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:48CLEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:50CLEM Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD9 plays · 82 yds · 2:2263% → 64%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+14
37.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 14 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+9
37.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 9 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
36.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 34 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2INT11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3237% → 37%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
36.8%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Scott Pagano) to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+21
37.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 21 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-3
37.6%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 24Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+5
37.0%
Kaaya, Brad pass right deep out incomplete to Coley, Stacy thrown to the CLEMSON0 (Green, T.J.), PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Robinson, Jabril) 5 yards to the CLEMSON19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+9
37.4%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Jadar Johnson return for 9 yds to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:0764% → 67%
MIADrive 4DOWNS8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3034% → 33%
CLEMDrive 5TD6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3769% → 76%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
31.5%
Ray-Ray McCloud run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jamal Carter) to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
30.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0025% → 23%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
25.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
24.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-8
23.8%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD13 plays · 85 yds · 4:1179% → 83%
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
20.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
20.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Courtel Jenkins) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
19.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
19.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
18.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 11 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
17.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+13
17.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 13 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3017% → 15%
Q2 7:50
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
15.7%
Vogel, Justin punt 51 yards to the CLEMSON23, Scott, Artavis return 36 yards to the MIAMIFL41, PENALTY CLEMSON illegal block off-setting, PENALTY MIAMIFL Face Mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0882% → 82%
Q2 5:32
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
18.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2816% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD18 plays · 84 yds · 3:5883% → 95%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
16.8%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Germone Hopper, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
14.7%
Watson, Deshaun pass left slant incomplete to McCloud, Ray-Ray thrown to the CLEMSON25 (Howard, Tracy), PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Howard, Tracy) 6 yards to the CLEMSON27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+17
12.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 17 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
5.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Courtel Jenkins) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 9 yds · 0:103% → 3%
MIADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:043% → 3%
Q3 13:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
2.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15FG13 plays · 45 yds · 4:2997% → 97%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
3.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
2.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
2.3%
Watson, Deshaun pass right sideline incomplete to Renfrow, Hunter thrown to the MIAMIFL15, PENALTY MIAMIFL face mask (Kamalu, Ufomba) 12 yards to the MIAMIFL11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-9
2.2%
C.J. Davidson run for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 21 C.J. Davidson fumbled, recovered by Clem C.J. DavidsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:162% → 1%
CLEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 1:2398% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
0.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 16
OWN 20
-5
0.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Richard Yeargin for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+12
0.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 12 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
0.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4299% → 99%
MIADrive 20FUMBLE4 plays · 9 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
0.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+1
0.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 1 yd to the Clem 40 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, forced by Jaquan Johnson, recovered by MiaFl Artie BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:540% → 0%
CLEMDrive 22TD4 plays · 69 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
0.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adrien Dunn for 4 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23INT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Herb Waters) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Rashawn Scott, broken up by Jefferie GibsonSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+33
0.2%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Van Smith return for 33 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24TD4 plays · 18 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 7:20
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+10
0.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 40 yds , Corn Elder returns for 10 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q4 2:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28END OF GAME4 plays · 19 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:08
Zac Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 0:42
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q1 6:53
Wayne Gallman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
-2.8