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BC

Boston College 14 at Louisville 17

LOU
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:23 · Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds LOUISVILLE Penalty, kick catching interference (Keith Kelsey) to the Lvile 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior+18.7Home team on offense+2.9Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:55: Jeff Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +16.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:42: Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19 — BC win probability +7.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:08: Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the BC 41 — LOU win probability +8.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18: Troy Flutie pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 5 yds to the Lvile 48 — BC win probability +11.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17: Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42 — LOU win probability +10.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10BC made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 17 at BC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25LOU 4th & 17 at BC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27BC 4th & 15 at BC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:27BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 25 at BC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:08BC 4th & 9 at BC 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:23LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:51BC 4th & 16 at BC 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:37LOU 4th & 25 at LOU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:51LOU 4th & 1 at BC 17, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%−1.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:10BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:53BC 4th & 19 at BC 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:21LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:53BC 4th & 12 at BC 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:55LOU 4th & 25 at LOU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:25BC 4th & 11 at LOU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:11BC 4th & 2 at BC 38, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:33BC 4th & 18 at BC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:15LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:36BC 4th & 10 at BC 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:18BC 4th & 12 at BC 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:27LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:55BC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
76.0%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
76.0%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
76.0%
Jeff Smith pass complete to David Dudeck for 8 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
76.0%
Alston,S rush right for 16 yards to the BC47 (Reve, J.), PENALTY BC holding (Addazio,L) 10 yards to the BC21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 21
0
76.0%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+7
76.0%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Thadd Smith for 7 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-4
76.0%
Jeff Smith sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
75.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 10 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
75.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-14
75.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Steven Daniels for a loss of 14 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 24
OWN 40
+10
75.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 14
50
+18
75.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 18 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
75.6%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-6
75.6%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
75.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
75.1%
Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
74.3%
Jeff Smith sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
74.4%
Alex Howell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the BC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:3375% → 77%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+29
74.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 29 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
74.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
74.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
74.0%
L.J. Scott run for 6 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
74.4%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the BC 3Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
74.4%
L.J. Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 4Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.9%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
75.7%
Thadd Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
75.7%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
76.0%
Alex Howell punt for 40 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1376% → 76%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+53
76.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 53 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
77.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-5
76.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Kenny Thomas) to the BC 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
76.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
-5
76.5%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Mehdi Abdesmad and Matt Milano for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 25
OPP 40
0
75.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
76.0%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Thadd Smith for 28 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
75.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
75.2%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the BC 43Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
75.6%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+3
76.3%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 46 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Trumaine Washington) to the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
75.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-6
76.0%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Truman Gutapfel for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 13
OWN 5
-2
75.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (James Hearns) to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 15
OWN 3
+14
75.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+24
75.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 39 yds LOUISVILLE Penalty, kick catching interference (Keith Kelsey) to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9FUMBLE TD
1 play · -13 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+46
79.6%
Jeff Smith sacked by Trumaine Washington for a loss of 13 yards Jeff Smith fumbled, recovered by Lvile Sheldon Rankins , return for 0 yards , return for 46 yds, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
80.9%
Sherman Alston run for 3 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-1
80.9%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 21Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-8
81.2%
Jeff Smith sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+2
81.4%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT TD
7 plays · -1 yds · 3:0283% → 76%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
82.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 6
50
+2
82.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
82.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
82.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-1
82.7%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-17
82.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Gabriel McClary for a loss of 17 yards to the LOUISVILLE 45 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 25
OWN 45
+12
76.0%
Joshua Appleby punt blocked by blocked by Elijah Robinson return for 12 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4677% → 80%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
77.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 49 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
79.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
79.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
78.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+34
79.7%
John Wallace 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:4121% → 19%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 20Similar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
79.5%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
79.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 21Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
79.7%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Elijah Robinson for 5 yds Elijah Robinson fumbled, forced by Jermaine Reve,Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
80.0%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Elijah Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 25Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
80.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to L.J. Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+17
79.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
80.8%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Justin Simmons return for no gain to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
79.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
81.0%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+18
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 18 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
81.2%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Steven Daniels for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
80.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
79.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 20 yds, downed at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
79.9%
Jeff Smith sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 17
OWN 42
-2
81.3%
Jeff Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 19
OWN 40
0
81.8%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 19
OWN 40
+1
82.5%
Alex Howell punt for 54 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
81.9%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
81.8%
L.J. Scott run for no gain to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+10
81.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
82.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 20 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
83.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-10
82.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Connor Strachan for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 22
OWN 26
+12
81.2%
L.J. Scott run for 12 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
81.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 38 yds , Sherman Alston returns for no gain to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
82.9%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+18
83.2%
Myles Willis run for 18 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
81.8%
Jeff Smith sacked by Pio Vatuvei for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+3
83.1%
Jeff Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
83.2%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+2
83.9%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds , Cornelius Sturghill returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
84.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 23 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+34
85.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 6 Jeremy Smith fumbled, forced by Connor Wujciak, recovered by BC Harold Landry , return for 34 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3820% → 36%
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
80.0%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
64.0%
Jeff Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -15 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
69.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
69.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Geron Christian) to the Lvile 15Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
69.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
68.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 20
OWN 15
-5
67.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
67.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 29%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
65.6%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+1
67.5%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
68.5%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
70.7%
Alex Howell punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0070% → 67%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
70.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
68.7%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
67.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
70.0%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 8 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
67.0%
Thadd Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 39Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
67.3%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 38Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
71.0%
Alex Howell punt for 49 yds, downed at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:0073% → 78%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+39
72.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 39 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
76.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
77.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
77.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 12 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.7%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Isaac Yiadom return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:0930% → 28%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
70.1%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+36
70.7%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Myles Willis for 36 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
65.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 15
50
+2
69.1%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 2 yds Thadd Smith fumbled, forced by Jermaine Reve, recovered by BCSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 18
OWN 47
0
70.8%
Troy Flutie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
72.5%
Alex Howell punt for 39 yds, downed at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:2975% → 77%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
75.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+13
74.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 13 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
76.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
76.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
76.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+12
76.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 12 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
78.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+6
76.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
77.2%
Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 21%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
76.3%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Thadd Smith, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
76.5%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Myles WillisSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
77.9%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Marcus Outlow, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
78.8%
Alex Howell punt for 30 yds, downed at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the BC 41Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
87.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 47 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, forced by Harold Landry, recovered by BC Connor StrachanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0025% → 19%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
75.4%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-7
73.6%
Troy Flutie sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 45 Troy Flutie fumbled, recovered by BC Troy Flutie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
79.5%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Elijah RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 12
OWN 45
-4
81.1%
Troy Flutie sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0192% → 91%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
92.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
92.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
91.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:55
Jeff Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
-16
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:18
Troy Flutie pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 5 yds to the Lvile 48
-11.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com