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WAKE

Wake Forest 14 at North Carolina 50

UNC
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:28 · TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+30.5Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Blowout margin+15.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 57 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +4.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:06: Marquise Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:18: Elijah Hood run for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Mangili pass to Brandon Fritts for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +4.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:18: John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:25: T.J. Logan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +4.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 10:08WAKE 4th & 2 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:30WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:42UNC 4th & 1 at WAKE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:19WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 32, down 15
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:41UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 30, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11WAKE 4th & 29 at WAKE 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:17UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:08WAKE 4th & 3 at UNC 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 31, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 26, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:11WAKE 4th & 7 at midfield, down 36
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:13UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 29, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:07WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:06UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:18UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:18WAKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:25UNC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:04UNC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:34UNC Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:11UNC Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
86.3%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+13
86.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 13 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
86.3%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
86.3%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Brad Watson return for 12 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3714% → 15%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.9%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+11
85.9%
Tyler Bell run for 11 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.9%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
85.9%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
85.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
85.9%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
85.9%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
85.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
84.7%
Mike Weaver 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
84.9%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:3116% → 18%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
84.3%
Tyler Bell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+21
84.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 21 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
84.3%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.3%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.1%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
82.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
81.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
82.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 45 yds, downed at the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
81.0%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Tyler Bell run for no gain to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+19
81.2%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 19 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
80.6%
Tyler Bell run for no gain to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-14
80.6%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Chuck Wade for 2 yards to the WF45 (Des Lawrence), PENALTY WF pass interference (Cortez Lewis) 14 yards to the WF29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+1
81.1%
Kendall Hinton run for 1 yd to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+11
81.3%
Kendall Hinton run for 11 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
81.2%
Alexander Kinal punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5278% → 82%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.7%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
77.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 14 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
82.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 57 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 9 yds Tyler Bell fumbled, forced by Shakeel Rashad, recovered by NCaro Jeff SchoettmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:3683% → 85%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
82.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
82.2%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+12
81.8%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
85.2%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.0%
John Wolford run for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
84.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete, broken up by Brian WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
84.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 35 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:2184% → 89%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
84.3%
Elijah Hood run for 29 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
89.0%
Elijah Hood run for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Mangili pass to Brandon Fritts for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0012% → 17%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
87.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
87.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 26 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
86.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
86.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
86.8%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
86.6%
John Wolford run for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+8
86.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
86.4%
Isaiah Robinson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:4785% → 90%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.5%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
84.5%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
84.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
84.6%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+61
85.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 61 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
89.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 7 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+2
88.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 2 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
90.3%
Elijah Hood run for 13 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-9
90.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by Josh Banks for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
89.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
89.4%
Hunter Lent punt for 56 yds, downed at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:5610% → 12%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
89.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 6 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+15
89.7%
John Wolford run for 15 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
89.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 32 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
87.6%
Mike Weaver 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 13 yds · 3:4410% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
89.8%
Tyler Bell run for 5 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
89.8%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+12
89.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 12 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
89.3%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
89.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 4 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
89.0%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
88.9%
John Wolford sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+7
90.2%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-21
89.5%
John Wolford sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 21 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 29
OWN 28
-5
90.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Teddy Matthews) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 34
OWN 23
+5
90.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Mack Hollins) to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 29
OWN 28
+48
90.7%
Alexander Kinal punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the UNC 29 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Ryan Switzer) to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
92.0%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+2
92.1%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
92.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-5
92.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (John Ferranto) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-11
91.7%
Marquise Williams sacked by Marquel Lee for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 20
OWN 24
0
91.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 49 yds, downed at the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:359% → 8%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.2%
Tyler Bell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
91.0%
Tyler Bell run for 9 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
90.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete, PENALTY NC personal foul (Jeff Schoettmer) 14 yards to the NC46, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
90.3%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+12
90.3%
Kendall Hinton run for 12 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
89.6%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
89.3%
Kendall Hinton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
92.1%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
91.9%
Kendall Hinton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3795% → 99%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
95.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
95.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+13
95.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
95.7%
Marquise Williams run for 33 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
95.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Caleb Peterson) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
95.7%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 4 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
98.6%
Kendall Hinton run for 4 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
98.5%
Kendall Hinton run for 4 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Alexander Kinal punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2999% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
99.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 33 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.9%
Mack Hollins 42 Yd pass from Marquise Williams (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-14
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tyler Bell for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to K.J. BrentSimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete, broken up by Brad WatsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 12 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Kendall Hinton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Isaiah Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
50
0
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to K.J. Brent, broken up by Malik SimmonsSimilar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 7
50
0
99.9%
Alexander Kinal punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+9
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 9 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-4
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+18
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 18 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 12 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 16 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 2 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 5 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for 1 yd to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for no gain to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+2
100.0%
Dezmond Wortham run for 2 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:25
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 11:18
Elijah Hood run for 36 yds for a TD, (Joey Mangili pass to Brandon Fritts for Two-Point Conversion)
+4.7
TD · Q2 14:52
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 57 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com