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VT

Virginia Tech 20 at Miami 30

MIA
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:47 · Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+18.0Garbage-time factor+11.9Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +5.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:58: Joey Slye 38 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +6.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:20: Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +26.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:44: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:49MIA 4th & 7 at VT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45VT 4th & 10 at MIA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:43MIA 4th & 6 at VT 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:44MIA 4th & 6 at VT 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:19VT 4th & 7 at VT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31MIA 4th & 4 at VT 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00VT 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−2.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58VT 4th & 14 at MIA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:26MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:00VT 4th & 4 at MIA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−7.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:28MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:58MIA 4th & 4 at VT 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−9.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:39VT 4th & 1 at VT 42, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:47MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:20MIA 4th & 1 at VT 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:03MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:04MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:20VT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:44MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:3867% → 67%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
66.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Nick Linder) to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+25
66.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 25 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
66.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
66.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
66.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+1
66.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 1 yd to the VTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:2433% → 34%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
66.6%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-13
66.5%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 8, Brenden Motley fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Mitch Davis at the VTech 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:4532% → 33%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
67.6%
Travon McMillian run for 22 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
67.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+35
67.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 35 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
67.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
67.2%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-2
67.5%
Brenden Motley sacked by Al-Quadin Muhammad for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
66.8%
Joey Slye 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:0267% → 70%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Luther Maddy) to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
67.0%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
67.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 22 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
67.6%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
67.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 8 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
67.6%
Walter Tucker run for 2 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
67.8%
Mark Walton run for 11 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
68.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 16 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
68.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 0
OPP 13
-15
68.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Christopher Herndon IV) 15 yards to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 28
0
67.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 28
+22
67.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 22 yds to the VTech 6Similar
Q1 3:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
69.6%
Michael Badgley 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2531% → 38%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.3%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
68.5%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
68.2%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
68.4%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
50
+14
68.1%
Brenden Motley run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
68.1%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
67.4%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
67.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 5 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
62.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 9 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:5165% → 66%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
65.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
64.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Facyson) to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
65.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+17
65.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 17 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
66.6%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-5
67.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Alex Gall) to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
65.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+5
65.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Woody Baron) to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+2
66.3%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
66.3%
Michael Badgley 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1834% → 33%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.1%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
65.9%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the VTech 38 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Ford) to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
67.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:1967% → 67%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
66.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 28 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
68.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
68.8%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 8
50
+11
67.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 11 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
68.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+3
68.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 3 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
67.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:0734% → 41%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+24
65.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 24 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
63.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
63.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
62.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
63.9%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
61.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 13 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.0%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
61.0%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-4
62.6%
Brenden Motley sacked by Jermaine Grace and Trent Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
59.5%
Joey Slye 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 0:4863% → 76%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
62.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Trevor Darling) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
62.3%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
62.5%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-11
61.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Standish Dobard) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+45
61.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 45 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
66.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+15
66.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Woody Baron) to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
66.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 14 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1327% → 31%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
73.1%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+10
73.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 10 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
73.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
72.2%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
72.0%
Travon McMillian run for 29 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
69.3%
Brenden Motley pass intercepted Artie Burns return for 4 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:2375% → 74%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
74.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 23 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
76.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
77.0%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
75.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
74.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:1026% → 28%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
74.0%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
73.6%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Kalvin Cline for 7 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-5
71.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Ryan Malleck) to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
73.7%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
72.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 6 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
72.7%
Brenden Motley run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.6%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
69.1%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Kalvin Cline for no gain to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-3
71.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+5
74.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
72.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5278% → 75%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
78.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Luther Maddy for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+6
77.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
76.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 12
OWN 27
-2
75.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17INT
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2526% → 23%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
74.2%
Brenden Motley sacked by Chad Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 19Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
75.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+3
76.6%
Brenden Motley pass intercepted Juwon Young return for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1281% → 84%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
81.3%
Mark Walton run for 11 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
81.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Facyson) to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
81.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Kc McDermott) to the VTech 7Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
82.5%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.7%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
83.6%
Brad Kaaya run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 4 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Brad KaayaSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
84.0%
Michael Badgley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 5:0117% → 16%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
82.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
84.7%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+7
85.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 7 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-16
84.6%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 16 yards to the VTech 8 Travon McMillian fumbled, forced by Courtel Jenkins, recovered by VTech Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 26
OWN 8
+10
85.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+15
85.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Roughing Passer (Anthony Moten) to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
83.3%
Sam Rogers run for 6 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
82.2%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
83.0%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
84.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 47 yds, downed at the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0386% → 87%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
86.2%
Brad Kaaya run for no gain to the MiaFl 11 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Brad KaayaSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
88.0%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
88.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
87.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:5514% → 41%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
86.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 22 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
85.5%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+33
58.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0172% → 95%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.5%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+27
72.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
50
+15
77.0%
Stacy Coley run for 15 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
78.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
80.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+23
81.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 23 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the VTech 2Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
94.8%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Artie Burns return for 7 yds to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:5096% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
96.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+1
96.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+5
96.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
96.6%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
-3
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:20
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 33 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-26.9
TD · Q4 2:44
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 0:04
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com