Try the model
LOU

Louisville 21 at Florida State 41

FSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:42 · Joshua Appleby punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:09: Dalvin Cook 54 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:08: James Quick 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +14.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:05: Kermit Whitfield 70 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:50: Dalvin Cook 14 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:47: James Quick 39 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +8.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:14LOU 4th & 10 at FSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42LOU 4th & 3 at FSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:06FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:12FSU 4th & 10 at LOU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:52LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 48, up 1
    Close callPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:01FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 40, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:23LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 43, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:48FSU 4th & 6 at LOU 39, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:20LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:09FSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:08LOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:05FSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:50FSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:44FSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:47LOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:12FSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:4226% → 27%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-5
74.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+14
74.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 14 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
73.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
50
+9
73.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
73.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
73.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-7
73.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
73.5%
Joshua Appleby punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5574% → 73%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
73.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-5
73.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
73.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ja'Vonn HarrisonSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
73.1%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
73.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2227% → 27%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
72.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
72.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
72.6%
Joshua Appleby punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:1673% → 73%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
72.8%
Everett Golson run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
72.8%
Cook, Dalvin rush for 4 yards to the FLORIDAST26, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside 5 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
72.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
72.8%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+12
72.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
72.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 21 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
73.1%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 42 Everett Golson fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Everett GolsonSimilar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+16
72.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 16 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
72.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
73.0%
Roberto Aguayo 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:3227% → 32%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
73.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
72.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 1 yd to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
72.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+48
72.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 48 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
68.0%
James Quick 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:4869% → 70%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
69.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
70.1%
Everett Golson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-12
69.0%
Everett Golson sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 26
OWN 29
+29
67.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 14 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Harvey-Clemons) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
70.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
70.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 4 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
70.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+12
70.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 12 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
70.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
69.9%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
69.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
69.6%
Roberto Aguayo 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:3832% → 32%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
68.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
68.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+9
68.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
67.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Nile Lawrence-Stample for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
67.7%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-1
68.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
68.1%
Joshua Appleby punt for 36 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:4070% → 65%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
70.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
68.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 15
OWN 47
-5
68.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+3
68.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+5
66.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Hearns) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 12
50
-10
66.7%
Everett Golson sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 22
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0336% → 37%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
64.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+20
64.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 20 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
62.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+6
62.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
63.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:4664% → 65%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
64.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
64.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
64.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+26
63.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 26 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
67.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
66.5%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+7
64.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
64.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 31 yds, downed at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:5038% → 42%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
61.9%
L.J. Scott run for 17 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
60.7%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+25
60.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 25 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
57.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:3763% → 78%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
63.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 8 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
63.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
63.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 21 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
78.1%
Dalvin Cook 54 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5226% → 45%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
74.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
72.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+23
71.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 23 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
69.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
54.6%
James Quick 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4961% → 76%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
61.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
75.5%
Kermit Whitfield 70 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:4326% → 29%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
73.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
74.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+10
75.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
73.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+16
75.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
72.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
71.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-10
71.0%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Derwin James for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 36 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Derwin James, recovered by FlaSt Josh Sweat , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:4079% → 91%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
79.4%
Kermit Whitfield run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+23
79.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Keith Brown) to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST down. Keith Brown ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
91.0%
Dalvin Cook 14 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
87.1%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Javien Elliott return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 5:3690% → 99%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+8
90.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+32
91.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Devonte Fields) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
91.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
92.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-5
91.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Travis Rudolph) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+13
93.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 13 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
93.5%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
93.7%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+11
93.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
94.5%
Golson, Everett rush for 4 yards to the LOUISVILLE6, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+7
94.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 7 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
94.7%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Travis Rudolph 13 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 1:332% → 10%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 7 yds to the Lvile 24 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamari Staples) to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
98.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+1
98.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 14
OWN 13
-5
98.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+38
98.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 38 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
98.6%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Staples, Jamari, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Pugh, Jacob) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
89.8%
James Quick 39 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2995% → 100%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Freddie StevensonSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ja'Vonn Harrison) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
94.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
95.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-3
95.8%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
96.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.2%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
96.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 15 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
96.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-5
96.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Derrick Kelly) to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
96.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+36
96.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 36 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Ryan Izzo 2 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
99.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Alec Eberle) to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+3
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 5 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 29 yds, downed at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+13
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 13 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:09
Dalvin Cook 54 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
+15.1
TD · Q3 9:08
James Quick 19 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (John Wallace Kick)
-14.4
TD · Q3 8:05
Kermit Whitfield 70 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick)
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com