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UVA

Virginia 19 at Pittsburgh 26

PITT
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:20 · Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for no gain to the Pitt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior+25.5Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:50: Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +2.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:11: Chris Blewitt 33 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +2.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:25: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +7.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:02: Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +2.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:50: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye PAT BLOCKED) — UVA win probability +9.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:38PITT 4th & 5 at UVA 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 24, down 11
    Close callPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:11PITT 4th & 4 at UVA 15, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:18UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:23UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 36, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:51PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:02UVA 4th & 9 at PITT 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−6.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:50PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 25, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:44UVA 4th & 23 at UVA 15, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:35UVA 4th & 10 at PITT 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:56PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:25PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:50UVA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0478% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
78.3%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+28
78.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 28 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
78.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 37 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:1822% → 23%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
78.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+71
78.4%
Albert Reid run for 71 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
78.1%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
78.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
78.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 16Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
78.3%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
77.5%
Ian Frye 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
77.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 22 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
77.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
77.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
77.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
77.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds, downed at the Virg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
77.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+2
77.5%
Matt Johns run for 2 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+4
77.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
77.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for no gain to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:2177% → 80%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+48
77.3%
Chris James run for 48 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
77.7%
Tyler Boyd run for 7 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
79.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
78.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+7
78.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 7 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
78.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
79.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 47 yds, downed at the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:0580% → 83%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
79.5%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+18
79.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 18 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
80.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 26 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
80.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
80.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+4
79.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Chris James for 4 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
82.7%
Chris Blewitt 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:5318% → 17%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
82.0%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+34
82.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 34 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
82.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
82.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+7
82.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 17 , Tyler Boyd returns for 7 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:3284% → 79%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
84.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 3 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
84.0%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+6
83.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 6 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
84.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+15
78.9%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Mike Moore for a loss of 10 yards Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Virg Kwontie Moore , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
79.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-1
79.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+9
78.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
79.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+12
78.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 12 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
79.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for no gain to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 33 yds, downed at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
79.2%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-4
79.8%
Matt Johns sacked by Matt Galambos for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
80.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds, downed at the Pitt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
80.0%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
80.5%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
80.3%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the Pitt 36 Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Pitt Nathan Peterman , return for no gain to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
79.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:1621% → 20%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
79.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
79.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 2 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
79.9%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the Virg 23 Matt Johns fumbled, forced by Rori Blair, recovered by Virg Matt Johns for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
79.4%
Matt Johns sacked by Ejuan Price and Avonte Maddox for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+5
79.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+5
79.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
80.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 8 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
80.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Quin Blanding PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
78.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0022% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
78.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 11 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
77.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
76.0%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
75.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie HopkinsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+11
76.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 11 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
74.9%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+51
74.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Matt Galambos return for 51 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2482% → 89%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
81.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 12 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 7:2313% → 14%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.5%
Daniel Hamm run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
86.7%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
87.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 7 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
86.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 9 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
85.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.3%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
50
+10
85.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 10 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.9%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
88.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete, PENALTY UP offside defense (Tyrique Jarrett) 5 yards to the UP35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
87.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
88.0%
Matt Johns run for 6 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
87.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 18 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.2%
Taquan Mizzell pass incomplete to Evan Butts, broken up by Pat Amara Jr.Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
87.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Pitt 9Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
86.5%
Ian Frye 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FUMBLE
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0287% → 91%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
87.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.7%
Chris James run for 11 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
88.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
88.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
87.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
88.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
88.1%
Chris James run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+33
89.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 33 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
90.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Virg 1 Qadree Ollison fumbled, forced by Micah Kiser, recovered by Virg Quin BlandingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20SF
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5710% → 7%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
89.6%
Matt Johns run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
89.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe, broken up by Lafayette PittsSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-2
93.8%
Matt Johns sacked by Mike Caprara for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
+15
93.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · -10 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.7%
Chris James run for 6 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
95.8%
Chris James run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
95.8%
Chris James run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.0%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-8
96.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 49 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (Adam Bisnowaty) to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-15
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the Pitt 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Nathan PetermanSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 26
OWN 24
-5
95.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 31
OWN 19
-2
95.5%
Chris James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 33
OWN 17
0
95.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds, downed at the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:365% → 16%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
95.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
95.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
95.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 24 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
94.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+32
84.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
91.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
91.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+1
91.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Maurice Canady at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:0910% → 8%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-11
90.2%
Matt Johns sacked by Matt Galambos for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 17 VIRGINIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Matt Johns) to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 21
OWN 17
+8
91.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-12
91.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for loss of 12 yards to the VA13 (Lafayette Pitts), PENALTY VA illegal block (Jackson Matteo) 12 yards to the VA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 25
OWN 13
+2
91.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 23
OWN 15
+32
92.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 32 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
88.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
88.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
88.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
92.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:50
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 32 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye PAT BLOCKED)
-9.7
TD · Q3 11:25
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+7.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com