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MIA

Miami 24 at Florida State 29

FSU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:23 · Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense+4.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+1.1Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:05: Rashawn Scott 58 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +5.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:36: Joseph Yearby 1 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +14.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 11:58: Roberto Aguayo 25 Yd Field Goal — FSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:02: Stacy Coley 29 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +23.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:44: Dalvin Cook 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FSU win probability +30.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:45MIA 4th & 5 at FSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:55MIA 4th & 13 at FSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53FSU 4th & 5 at MIA 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:58FSU 4th & 1 at MIA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−1.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:23MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42FSU 4th & 13 at MIA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:59FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:33FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:22MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:58FSU 4th & 8 at MIA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−15.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:16MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45FSU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:53MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:30FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:42FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:05MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:36MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:02MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−1.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:44FSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0528% → 28%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
72.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
71.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kermit Whitfield at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 2:0572% → 73%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
71.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+7
71.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+7
71.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ermon Lane for 7 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
71.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+72
72.7%
Dalvin Cook 72 Yd Run (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2528% → 28%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
72.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+38
72.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 38 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
72.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+17
72.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 14 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Trey Marshall) to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
72.1%
Brad Kaaya run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 8 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Brad KaayaSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
72.3%
Brad Kaaya sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 6:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
71.7%
Michael Badgley 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5972% → 75%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
71.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 37 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
72.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+36
74.7%
Dalvin Cook 36 Yd pass from Everett Golson (Roberto Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:1126% → 25%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
73.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-5
74.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Trevor Darling) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 14
OWN 6
0
74.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
74.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:2075% → 78%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.1%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
50
+10
75.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 10 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
75.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 12 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
75.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+10
75.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 10 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
75.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+11
75.5%
Everett Golson run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
75.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
78.2%
Roberto Aguayo 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2523% → 28%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
77.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
77.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nile Lawrence-Stample) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
77.3%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
77.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
77.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
77.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 9 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
72.3%
Rashawn Scott 58 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4074% → 75%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
73.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
74.0%
Cook, Dalvin rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST27, PENALTY MIAMIFL offside (Crawford, Dallas) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+35
74.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 35 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
75.6%
Johnathan Vickers run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+12
75.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 12 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
75.9%
Johnathan Vickers run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
76.5%
Johnathan Vickers run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
76.1%
Johnathan Vickers run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
74.8%
Johnathan Vickers run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1126% → 24%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
74.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for no gain to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+3
74.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
75.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
75.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:2377% → 77%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
76.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 1
50
+17
76.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
76.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+21
76.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 21 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
77.1%
Freddie Stevenson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
76.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
76.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 8
OPP 9
-5
75.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
77.2%
Roberto Aguayo 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:5423% → 21%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
77.7%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-13 Yards) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+12
78.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 12 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Alex Gall) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
78.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
79.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:2079% → 80%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
79.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
79.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 9 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+49
80.4%
Roberto Aguayo 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5680% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
79.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
80.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
81.6%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-2
80.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 6:0920% → 37%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
79.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
79.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stacy Coley) to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
80.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Nile Lawrence-Stample) to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+20
79.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 20 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
79.4%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+8
80.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
79.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
79.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
78.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+10
79.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 10 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
78.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
78.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+13
79.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 13 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.4%
Joseph Yearby 1 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5970% → 68%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
69.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
67.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 55 yds , Corn Elder returns for no gain to the MiaFl 6 Corn Elder fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Corn ElderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0331% → 29%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
68.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 26 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
67.1%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-15
66.6%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Njoku, David, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Njoku, David) 15 yards to the MIAMIFL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 22
OWN 20
+13
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
70.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
70.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:0469% → 83%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
70.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
70.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 17 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
72.5%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
50
+16
70.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 16 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
73.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
76.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+15
76.7%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Rudolph, Travis, PENALTY MIAMIFL pass interference (Howard, Tracy) 15 yards to the MIAMIFL7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
76.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
76.9%
Everett Golson sacked by Al-Quadin Muhammad for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
73.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
83.4%
Roberto Aguayo 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:3625% → 55%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
75.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+23
74.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 23 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
71.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 20 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
68.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
44.7%
Stacy Coley 29 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:0152% → 87%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
52.2%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 2 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
51.7%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+20
48.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
53.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
53.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 8 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+7
54.9%
Everett Golson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
56.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 23 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
87.0%
Dalvin Cook 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1227% → 24%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
71.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 34 Brad Kaaya fumbled, forced by DeMarcus Walker, recovered by MiaFl Danny Isidora , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 15
OWN 34
0
75.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+3
76.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1185% → 91%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
85.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+5
87.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
88.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+2
89.1%
Everett Golson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-5
90.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Wilson Bell) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+11
90.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 5
50
0
91.0%
Cason Beatty punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4714% → 13%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
87.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+11
86.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
85.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
87.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3596% → 96%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
Dalvin Cook 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+30.1
TD · Q4 10:02
Stacy Coley 29 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
-23.8
TD · Q3 5:36
Joseph Yearby 1 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com