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DUKE

Duke 44 at Army 3

ARMY
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:08 · Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 1 yd to the Duke 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense−19.2Pregame prior−20.6Score differential−10.0Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:11: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:01: Parker Boehme run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:18: Jela Duncan run for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +3.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:00: Daniel Grochowski 22 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:30: Ross Martin 25 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:07DUKE 4th & 5 at ARMY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48DUKE 4th & 3 at ARMY 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:02ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:08ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06DUKE 4th & 7 at ARMY 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:57ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:00ARMY 4th & 5 at DUKE 5, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:30DUKE 4th & 7 at ARMY 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:17ARMY 4th & 29 at DUKE 45, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 1:11DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:01DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:18DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:42DUKE Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:18DUKE Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:4382% → 80%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
18.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
18.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
19.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 10 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
19.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
19.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+19
19.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 19 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
19.4%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 32Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+3
19.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+7
19.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 7 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
20.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
20.0%
Ross Martin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3620% → 21%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
20.3%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Tinashe Bere for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 2Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 16
OWN 2
+5
20.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+1
20.5%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Army 8Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
20.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3279% → 79%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
20.9%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+9
21.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
21.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
21.4%
Will Monday punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nicholas Black at the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 13 yds · 5:3021% → 23%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
21.3%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the Army 2Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+8
21.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 8 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
21.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 5 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
22.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
22.0%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 19Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
22.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
22.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
23.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
23.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
23.8%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 35Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-4
23.4%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 17 Joe Walker fumbled, forced by Deondre Singleton, recovered by DukeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4977% → 80%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
22.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+5
22.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
22.8%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
20.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:1920% → 20%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.2%
Tyler Campbell run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.5%
Tyler Campbell run for 6 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
21.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
20.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-14
20.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 14 yards to the Army 33 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by ArmySimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 24
OWN 33
-1
19.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 32 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Duke Ben HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:0780% → 87%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
20.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
20.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
20.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
20.4%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
20.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
20.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
20.3%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Army 4Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
20.6%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Army 3Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.3%
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4016% → 15%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.5%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
15.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
15.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 32Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
15.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 40 yds, downed at the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:3287% → 91%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
13.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-5
13.3%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+6
14.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+10
14.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 10 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
13.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
13.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 10 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
12.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the Army 43Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
9.3%
Jela Duncan run for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4211% → 11%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
11.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
11.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
10.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 3:4391% → 94%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
8.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
8.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
8.7%
Parker Boehme run for 2 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
8.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 13 yds to the ARMY 41 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 7
OWN 49
+5
8.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
7.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
7.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+15
7.0%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
7.0%
Britton Grier run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+4
7.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+5
7.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
7.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
7.7%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
6.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
6.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
6.4%
Ross Martin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
8.6%
Joe Walker run for 9 yds to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:394% → 6%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.4%
Drue Harris run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
3.9%
Drue Harris run for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
3.8%
Tyler Campbell run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
3.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
4.5%
Drue Harris run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
4.0%
John Trainor run for 16 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
4.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
4.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
4.6%
Drue Harris run for 22 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
4.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
4.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
5.5%
Daniel Grochowski 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:1196% → 98%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
3.8%
DUKE Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+6
3.9%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
3.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
3.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+11
3.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 11 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.5%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+32
3.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 32 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
2.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+11
2.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 11 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
2.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Army 9Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
2.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
2.1%
Ross Martin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:563% → 4%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 22Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
2.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+32
2.4%
Joe Walker run for 32 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
3.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Kelvin White for 37 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.7%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
3.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 2Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-15
3.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 15 yards to the Duke 17 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Duke Jeremy CashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:1898% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
1.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
1.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+3
1.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
1.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 38 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
0.7%
Jela Duncan run for 13 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
0.6%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
0.6%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+6
0.5%
Parker Boehme run for 6 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
0.5%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Jela Duncan 1 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Army Ahmad BradshawSimilar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+3
0.3%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
0.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted Corbin McCarthy return for no gain to the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.3%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 5 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+20
0.3%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 20 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:420% → 0%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.2%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
0.2%
John Trainor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+18
0.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Darnell Woolfolk for 18 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
0.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
0.2%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 13
OPP 29
-4
0.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 45 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Army Drue Harris Drue Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 29
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 29
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Alex Tardieu punt for 33 yds, downed at the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 45 yds · 5:19100% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
0.2%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
0.2%
Parker Boehme run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+8
0.2%
Parker Boehme run for 8 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.2%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
0.2%
Nicodem Pierre run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+18
0.1%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Ryan Smith for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.1%
Parker Boehme run for 2 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
0.1%
Nicodem Pierre run for no gain to the Army 48Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
0.1%
Nicodem Pierre run for 5 yds to the Army 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:01
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 6:18
Jela Duncan run for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q1 1:11
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com