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UNC

North Carolina 38 at Georgia Tech 31

GT
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+13GT 21.3%Harrison Butker 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 38 - HOME 31 · Q4 2:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:46 · Harrison Butker 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−17.0Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor−10.9Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Marquise Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +10.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:51: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +14.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 11:25: Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +38.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:52: Marquise Williams run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +17.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:46: Harrison Butker 37 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +13.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:18UNC 4th & 15 at GT 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:18UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:53GT 4th & 4 at UNC 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:34GT 4th & 1 at UNC 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−7.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:35UNC 4th & 8 at GT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−7.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:30GT 4th & 5 at UNC 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−7.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:45UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:50GT 4th & 5 at UNC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:52UNC 4th & 5 at GT 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−16.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:46GT 4th & 15 at UNC 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:04UNC 4th & 9 at GT 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:46GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:38GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:34GT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:29UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:45GT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:25UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:52UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:1469% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.0%
Isiah Willis run for 6 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
69.0%
Clinton Lynch run for 6 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
69.0%
Clinton Lynch run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
69.0%
Clinton Lynch run for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.1%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+14
69.0%
Austin McClellan run for 14 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
69.0%
Clinton Lynch run for 6 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
69.0%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.0%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:1230% → 29%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
70.0%
Marquise Williams run for 20 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
69.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 5 yds to the NCaro 46 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+26
70.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 26 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
69.7%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
69.7%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-10
69.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GTech 43Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 15
OPP 43
0
70.4%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
70.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 7:1871% → 79%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
70.7%
Isiah Willis run for 1 yd to the GTech 16 Isiah Willis fumbled, recovered by GTechSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+1
70.7%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 17Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+11
70.5%
Justin Thomas run for 11 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
71.1%
Patrick Skov run for 9 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
71.7%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
72.0%
Patrick Skov run for 6 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
72.2%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
71.7%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
72.3%
Austin McClellan run for 9 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
72.4%
Marcus Allen run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
72.6%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+6
72.8%
Lynn Griffin run for 6 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
72.9%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
78.5%
Clinton Lynch run for 14 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1424% → 23%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.4%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Adam Gotsis) to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
76.1%
Romar Morris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-1
75.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
75.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
76.7%
Corbin Daly punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 7:1679% → 91%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
78.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 7 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+9
79.4%
Isiah Willis run for 9 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
79.7%
Isiah Willis run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
80.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
80.1%
Isiah Willis run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+3
79.6%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+8
79.5%
Clinton Lynch run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
80.0%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+6
80.5%
Patrick Skov run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
80.8%
Justin Thomas run for 20 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
81.0%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.4%
Austin McClellan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.1%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3910% → 21%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.1%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
89.9%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
90.1%
Ryan Switzer pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
90.1%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
90.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+16
89.6%
T.J. Logan run for 16 yds to the GTech 19 T.J. Logan fumbled, recovered by NCaro Caleb Peterson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
89.3%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
89.5%
Elijah Hood run for 13 yds to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.9%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:1883% → 84%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.3%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
83.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:4119% → 30%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
81.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 9 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+9
81.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 9 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.0%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
81.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 19 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.4%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
75.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:1026% → 33%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
72.8%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
71.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 25 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
69.7%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
69.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
71.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
66.7%
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2971% → 83%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
71.3%
Isiah Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+18
70.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 18 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
74.6%
Mikell Lands-Davis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
82.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Mikell Lands-Davis for 19 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3919% → 36%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
80.6%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
82.1%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
80.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
80.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 17 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
79.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
79.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
78.6%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+25
78.3%
Marquise Williams run for 25 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.2%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:4172% → 75%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.6%
Isiah Willis run for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
72.6%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
73.4%
Mikell Lands-Davis run for 8 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
73.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 19 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.0%
Clinton Lynch run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
76.0%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-1
74.9%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2475% → 79%
Q3 2:30
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+5
74.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Patrick Skov for 5 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
78.0%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+15
76.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 15 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
78.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sam Smiley) to the NCaro 6Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 3
OPP 6
+1
78.2%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
78.8%
Isiah Willis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.9%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.0%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0126% → 23%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
74.2%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+3
74.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-2
74.8%
Ty'Son Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 3
OWN 8
-4
76.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-4 Yards) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
76.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
78.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 37 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCaro Junior Gnonkonde , return for 20 yds to the GTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
39.2%
Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:0747% → 45%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
47.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 17 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
48.8%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
50.2%
Isiah Willis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
50.0%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
50.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Marcus Allen for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
50.5%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-3
49.2%
Clinton Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
44.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4669% → 91%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
31.1%
Marquise Williams run for 27 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
25.0%
Marquise Williams sacked by KeShun Freeman for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
24.9%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+6
26.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+27
9.1%
Marquise Williams run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:4911% → 21%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
11.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 8 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
11.9%
Justin Thomas run for 12 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
12.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Isiah Willis for 40 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
14.2%
Mikell Lands-Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20 Mikell Lands-Davis fumbled, recovered by GTech Mikell Lands-DavisSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
9.7%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
8.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
21.3%
Harrison Butker 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:2991% → 97%
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+9
8.9%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
8.0%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-2
2.4%
Marquise Williams sacked by P.J. Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+2
2.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
3.1%
Nick Weiler 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5911% → 9%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
10.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Mikell Lands-DavisSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
8.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Mikell Lands-Davis for 5 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
8.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 9 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
9.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+2
9.0%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for 2 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:25
Quinshad Davis pass complete to Marquise Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-38.9
TD · Q4 4:52
Marquise Williams run for 27 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q3 6:51
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com