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BC

Boston College 7 at Duke 9

DUKE
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.1DUKE 69.1%Ross Martin 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:12 · Ross Martin 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:49: Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the BC 12 — DUKE win probability +4.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:28: Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 66 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +18.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:37: Troy Flutie pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 16 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +4.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:21: Timeout BOSTON COLLEGE, clock 04:21 — DUKE win probability +7.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:35: Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 29 — DUKE win probability +12.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 12BC made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32BC 4th & 4 at BC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:42DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:40BC 4th & 6 at BC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:12DUKE 4th & 12 at BC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:06BC 4th & 5 at BC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:18DUKE 4th & 12 at BC 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:31BC 4th & 12 at DUKE 25, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:40DUKE 4th & 6 at BC 35, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:02BC 4th & 9 at BC 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:57DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:49DUKE 4th & 1 at BC 1, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−9.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:15BC 4th & 7 at DUKE 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:36DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:53BC 4th & 13 at BC 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:21DUKE 4th & 12 at BC 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 10 at BC 34, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−1.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:32BC 4th & 5 at BC 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:58DUKE 4th & 2 at BC 43, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−6.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−4.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:35BC 4th & 3 at DUKE 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−5.2
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−18.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:20DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−9.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:13BC 4th & 2 at DUKE 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−2.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 0:28BC Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 9 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the BC 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Alex Howell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
69.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
69.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
69.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Tanner Stone) to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
69.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
69.8%
Will Monday punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
69.5%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 37Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
69.7%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BC 42Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
69.4%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
69.7%
Alex Howell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
69.4%
Sirk, T pass incomplete to Nash, A, PENALTY BC pass interference (Yiadom,I) 15 yards to the DU37, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.6%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
69.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
69.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+8
69.4%
Will Monday punt for 49 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 8 yds to the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.8%
Troy Flutie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
68.9%
Jeff Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
69.0%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Tyler RouseSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
69.3%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:3069% → 69%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+26
69.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 26 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
69.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+18
69.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 18 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
69.8%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the BC 16Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
69.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+3
69.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 7
OPP 13
-5
69.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 18Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
69.1%
Ross Martin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.6%
Jeff Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
69.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
69.6%
Jeff Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.2%
Jeff Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
68.8%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
68.9%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds, downed at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:4269% → 72%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
68.6%
Sirk, T pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J., PENALTY BC holding (Yiadom,I) 10 yards to the DU24, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
68.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+12
69.4%
Jela Duncan run for 12 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
69.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Lucas Patrick) to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 16
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
68.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Anthony Nash for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
68.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Ryan Smith for 11 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffrey, broken up by Steven DanielsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
70.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 14 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-8
70.3%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Steven Daniels for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+19
68.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 19 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
70.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
70.4%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
69.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
71.7%
Ross Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:4330% → 26%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.4%
Jeff Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+25
69.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 25 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
68.2%
Smith,J rush for 4 yards to the DU29, out-of-bounds (Cash, J), PENALTY BC holding (Callinan,C) 10 yards to the DU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
69.8%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+16
70.1%
Jeff Smith run for 16 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+4
68.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 4 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
68.0%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-4
70.6%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
72.5%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 12
OPP 25
-6
74.0%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5975% → 77%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+29
74.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 29 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
76.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-2
76.5%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
75.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
77.3%
Ross Martin 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:3423% → 21%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
76.7%
Jeff Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+7
76.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
76.3%
Jeff Smith run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
76.3%
Jeff Smith run for 9 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
75.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 49Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
77.6%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to David Dudeck, broken up by Dwayne NormanSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
78.2%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
79.1%
Alex Howell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
78.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.4%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
77.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 14:57
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
75.7%
Will Monday punt for 56 yds , Connor Strachan returns for no gain to the BC 15 Connor Strachan fumbled, recovered by Duke Johnell BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
79.7%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
79.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 11 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.7%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
79.7%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 3Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q3 13:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.8%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
78.6%
Troy Flutie run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
78.8%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 1Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+33
79.7%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 33 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
77.6%
Jeff Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 35Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
77.6%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+8
77.2%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Elijah Robinson for 8 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.4%
Sherman Alston run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
75.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-4
76.3%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+9
78.2%
Alex Howell punt for 33 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
80.1%
Will Monday punt for 52 yds, downed at the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
82.1%
Sherman Alston run for 12 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
81.7%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
81.9%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
83.3%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Alex Howell punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
83.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+1
84.3%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
84.2%
Sirk, T pass incomplete to Barnes, J, PENALTY BC pass interference (Moore,K) 15 yards to the BC43, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
84.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
84.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jela DuncanSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
83.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
81.7%
Will Monday punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2417% → 36%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
83.1%
Troy Flutie run for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
82.1%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
63.6%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 66 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:2167% → 66%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
69.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to David ReevesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
67.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 13 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
70.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
70.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 11 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
71.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
69.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
65.8%
Will Monday punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
64.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 15Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
65.0%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
66.1%
Troy Flutie pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+9
67.7%
Alex Howell punt for 52 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 28 DUKE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
68.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 8 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
70.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
69.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
69.8%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+11
69.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 11 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
71.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 8 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
72.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-1
71.6%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 43Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
69.3%
Will Monday punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 5:0235% → 36%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
64.7%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 16 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
61.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 15 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
59.3%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
59.3%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 10 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
57.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Harris Williams) to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+7
60.8%
Tyler Rouse run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-4
57.5%
Marcus Outlow run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+9
65.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 9 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
64.4%
Colton Lichtenberg 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:1577% → 75%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
76.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
78.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-4
76.2%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Will Monday punt for 25 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+7
77.0%
Tyler Rouse run for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
76.9%
Troy Flutie run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
78.1%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to David DudeckSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-1
80.1%
Jeff Smith pass complete to David Dudeck for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 78%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
81.5%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+5
79.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (Truman Gutapfel) to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-3
80.4%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-1
77.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.2
TD · Q3 0:28
Troy Flutie pass complete to Thadd Smith for 66 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:35
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the Duke 29
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com