Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 28 at East Carolina 35

ECU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:35 · Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, downed at the VTech 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior−2.2Home team on offense+18.3Garbage-time factor+11.8Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:16: Trevon Brown 11 Yd pass from Blake Kemp (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +6.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:09: Isaiah Jones 26 Yd pass from James Summers (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +14.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: Sam Rogers 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +17.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:43: James Summers 41 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick) — ECU win probability +15.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:18: Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +21.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:10VT 4th & 1 at ECU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:27VT 4th & 7 at VT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:43VT 4th & 16 at VT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:00VT 4th & 2 at ECU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−1.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:21VT 4th & 6 at ECU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:37ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:57VT 4th & 3 at VT 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:52VT 4th & 2 at VT 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:09ECU 4th & 12 at VT 26, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:43VT 4th & 6 at VT 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 29, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:27ECU 4th & 19 at VT 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:35ECU 4th & 15 at VT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:47VT 4th & 2 at VT 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:58ECU 4th & 12 at VT 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:18VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:13VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:33ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:16ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:02ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:09ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:47VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:43ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:18VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3223% → 24%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
23.3%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24 Chris Hairston fumbled, recovered by ECaro Blake KempSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-2
23.6%
Blake Kemp pass intercepted Greg Stroman return for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:4276% → 76%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
23.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
23.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
24.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
24.3%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+8
24.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 8 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.7%
Trey Edmunds 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5024% → 24%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
24.1%
Blake Kemp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
24.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 7 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+4
24.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
24.4%
Blake Kemp run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19 Blake Kemp fumbled, recovered by VTech Mook Reynolds , return for 17 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5776% → 78%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
24.0%
Brenden Motley run for 9 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-3
24.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
24.0%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
24.5%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
24.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.0%
Ryan Malleck 7 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:2123% → 27%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
23.3%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 24 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
23.5%
Blake Kemp run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-3
23.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+14
23.4%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Bryce Williams for 14 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
23.8%
Blake Kemp run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+14
23.8%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 14 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.0%
Blake Kemp 3 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5675% → 74%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
25.4%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
25.6%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
26.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1126% → 34%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
26.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
26.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+14
26.9%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 14 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
27.2%
Shawn Furlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-15
26.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 26
OWN 43
+19
26.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Trevon Brown for 19 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+15
27.0%
Blake Kemp pass complete to Davon Grayson for 15 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
28.0%
Blake Kemp pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-3
28.0%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+15
26.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chuck Clark) to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
33.5%
Trevon Brown 11 Yd pass from Blake Kemp (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:1769% → 67%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
30.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
30.9%
Brenden Motley run for 11 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
30.4%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
31.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
31.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 11
OWN 40
-5
32.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Ryan Malleck) to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
32.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:2333% → 44%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
33.4%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
33.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
33.0%
James Summers run for 15 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
34.9%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
34.5%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+30
34.1%
James Summers pass complete to Quay Johnson for 30 yds Quay Johnson fumbled, recovered by ECaro Jimmy Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
37.3%
James Summers run for 24 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
37.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.9%
James Summers 5 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 4:3459% → 53%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
41.2%
Brenden Motley run for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
40.8%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
40.9%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
40.1%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
41.2%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
41.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+6
42.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sam Rogers for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+8
45.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 8 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
42.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-5
42.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+7
44.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 7 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
44.9%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
47.1%
Joey Slye 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3049% → 49%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.6%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-10
49.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+13
49.1%
James Summers run for 13 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
49.4%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+45
49.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:0448% → 47%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
52.1%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+8
52.6%
Brenden Motley run for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
51.3%
Dwayne Lawson run for 4 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
52.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
53.2%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
54.0%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+14
55.1%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 14 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
52.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3553% → 54%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
52.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
-2
53.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4148% → 46%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
51.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 1 yd to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
53.7%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
53.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 20 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2057% → 70%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.2%
James Summers run for no gain to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+29
57.8%
James Summers pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 29 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
59.5%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
60.1%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-8
59.5%
James Summers sacked by Sean Huelskamp for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+26
69.7%
Isaiah Jones 26 Yd pass from James Summers (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0830% → 49%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.4%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
68.8%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
69.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 5 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
69.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 32 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
67.6%
Isaiah Ford run for 10 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
67.3%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
67.6%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+13
69.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 13 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.5%
Sam Rogers 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3264% → 82%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
63.9%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-1
64.3%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+12
63.0%
James Summers run for 12 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
66.6%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+17
67.0%
James Summers pass complete to Quay Johnson for 17 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
82.3%
James Summers 41 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0021% → 20%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
77.2%
Brenden Motley run for 8 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
75.9%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
77.8%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-5
78.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
80.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1488% → 88%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.6%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
87.8%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
88.2%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
87.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 43 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 1 yd to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20INT
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:1716% → 18%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
83.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+39
83.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 39 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
81.9%
Brenden Motley run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
82.4%
Brenden Motley pass intercepted Jordan Williams return for 9 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2793% → 94%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+40
93.3%
James Summers run for 40 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
94.2%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
94.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+8
94.5%
James Summers pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 4
OPP 30
-15
94.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Bryce Williams) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
93.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 2:5312% → 32%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
88.3%
Brenden Motley run for 8 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+6
87.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.0%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+14
89.1%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
88.5%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+60
89.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 60 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.0%
Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2283% → 87%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.7%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
83.2%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sean Huelskamp) to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
86.7%
James Summers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
50
+9
87.6%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
88.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
88.4%
James Summers pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
87.9%
James Summers run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
86.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, downed at the VTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4116% → 12%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
84.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 17 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
84.8%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+10
85.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
83.2%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-6
83.0%
Brenden Motley sacked by Demetri McGill for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+11
89.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 11 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
87.9%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4495% → 96%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.1%
James Summers run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
95.2%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
96.5%
James Summers run for no gain to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
95.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:456% → 7%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
93.6%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+21
93.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 21 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
92.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
93.4%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+10
93.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
92.6%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:18
Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)
-21.4
TD · Q3 6:47
Sam Rogers 2 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)
-17.9
TD · Q3 3:43
James Summers 41 Yd Run (Davis Plowman Kick)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com