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SAM

Samford 3 at Louisville 45

LOU
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:56 · Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+28.8Blowout margin+17.0Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:54: Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:17: Anthony Pistelli 32 yd FG GOOD — SAM win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:15: John Wallace 50 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:31: Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Micky Crum for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:11: Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 36 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:13SAM 4th & 8 at SAM 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:54SAM 4th & 14 at SAM 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:17SAM 4th & 12 at LOU 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:15LOU 4th & 25 at SAM 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:15SAM 4th & 2 at SAM 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 1 at SAM 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:11SAM 4th & 3 at SAM 39, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:19LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 28, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:13SAM 4th & 11 at LOU 38, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:10LOU 4th & 9 at SAM 40, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:56SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 43, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:34LOU 4th & 6 at SAM 47, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:56LOU 4th & 22 at LOU 35, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:46SAM 4th & 10 at LOU 23, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:23LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:13LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:54LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:31LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:11LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:56LOU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SAMDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.0%
K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.0%
Michael Eubank curl pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 6 yards to the SAM33 (Harvey-Clemons), PENALTY SAM illegal formation 5 yards to the SAM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+20
97.0%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Emmanuel Obajimi for 15 yds Emmanuel Obajimi fumbled, forced by Trumaine Washington, recovered by Lvile Keith Kelsey , return for 20 yds to the Samf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:4097% → 97%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 14Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
96.8%
Denzel Williams run for 3 yds to the Samf 41Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Michael Eubank pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2497% → 97%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
96.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
96.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
96.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 34 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
96.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 17 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Samf 13Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
96.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for no gain to the Samf 27Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
96.6%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Emmanuel Obajimi for 11 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.5%
Denzel Williams run for 4 yds to the Samf 42Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-6
96.5%
Michael Eubank sacked by Sheldon Rankins and Keith Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Samf 36Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+4
96.6%
Michael Eubank run for 4 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+7
96.6%
Austin Barnard punt for 42 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0597% → 97%
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+73
96.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 73 yds to the Samf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Samf 2Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
97.1%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 23Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
97.1%
Denzel Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 25Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-8
97.1%
Michael Eubank sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 8 yards to the Samf 17Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 14
OWN 17
+1
97.1%
Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 36 , Jaire Alexander returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5197% → 98%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
97.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 15 yds to the Samf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Samf 46Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
97.3%
Jackson, L. sideline pass complete to Quick, J. for 39 yards to the SAM7 (Trey Wesley), PENALTY LOU ineligible downfield on pass (Christian, G.) 5 yards to the LOU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+12
97.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
97.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 3 yds to the Samf 36Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+1
97.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Samf 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+23
97.5%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Shaheed Salmon return for 23 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:323% → 4%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
97.3%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 13 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Michael Eubank pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
97.2%
K'rondis Larry run for 14 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-11
97.2%
Darius Harvey run for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 30 Darius Harvey fumbled,Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 21
OPP 30
-2
97.3%
Michael Eubank sacked by DeAngelo Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 23
OPP 32
+20
97.4%
Michael Eubank pass complete to K'rondis Larry for 7 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Shaq Wiggins) to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
97.2%
K'rondis Larry rush up middle for no gain to the LOU12 (Reve, J.), PENALTY SAM illegal formation 5 yards to the LOU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-2
97.2%
Denzel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 17
OPP 19
+5
97.3%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Tony Philpot for 5 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Michael Eubank pass complete to Karel Hamilton for no gain to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
96.5%
Anthony Pistelli 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:0297% → 98%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
96.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+26
96.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 26 yds to the Samf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
96.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 19 yds to the Samf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Samf 16Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
96.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Samf 11Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-15
96.6%
Radcliff, B. rush up middle for 1 yard to the SAM10 (Ahmad Gooden;Jared Holloway), PENALTY LOU illegal block (Klusman, T.C.) 15 yards to the SAM26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 18
OPP 26
-7
96.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ahmad Gooden for a loss of 7 yards to the Samf 33Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 25
OPP 33
+50
98.0%
John Wallace 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the Samf 29Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
97.4%
K'rondis Larry run for 4 yds to the Samf 33Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
97.4%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+16
97.4%
Austin Barnard punt for 52 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 16 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:1798% → 100%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.2%
Corvin Lamb run for 9 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
98.2%
Corvin Lamb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
98.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
98.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Samf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
98.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Samf 36Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+24
98.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 24 yds to the Samf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
98.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Samf 5Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
98.2%
Corvin Lamb run for 2 yds to the Samf 3Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Micky Crum for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Justin Cooper run for 2 yds to the Samf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14INT
11 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Traveon Samuel run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 6 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-6
99.5%
Jackson, L. deep pass incomplete to Towbridge, K. (James Bradberry), PENALTY LOU ineligible downfield on pass (McNeil, L.) 6 yards to the LOU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+31
99.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 31 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 13 yds to the Samf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 24Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+9
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 9 yds to the Samf 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
99.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
99.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Samf 10Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass intercepted, touchback. Jamerson Blount return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Samf 36Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Samf 36Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+36
99.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 36 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for no gain to the Samf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.7%
Denzel Williams run for 1 yd to the Samf 22Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
99.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Devon Schmitt for 4 yds to the Samf 26Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
99.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 6 yds to the Samf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
K'rondis Larry run for 5 yds to the Samf 37Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-5
99.7%
SAMFORD Penalty, false start (Darius Harvey) to the Samf 32Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 7 yds to the Samf 39Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Denzel Williams, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+21
99.7%
Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 24 , Jaire Alexander returns for 21 yds to the LOUISVILLE 40 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.8%
L.J. Scott run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+52
99.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 52 yds , Kelvin McKnight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+32
99.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 32 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.8%
Devlin Hodges run for 6 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
99.8%
K'rondis Larry run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.8%
K'rondis Larry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Austin Barnard punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:14100% → 100%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 16 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds to the Samf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 5 yds to the Samf 36Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-3
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Javonte Bagley for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 39Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-1
99.8%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 40 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by LvileSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+21
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devonte Peete for 21 yds to the Samf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Samf 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Samf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Samf 2Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Denzel Williams for 2 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (James Hearns) to the Samf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Devlin Hodges run for 1 yd to the Samf 43Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Austin Barnard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Javonte Bagley, broken up by Jamerson BlountSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
99.9%
L.J. Scott run for no gain to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+40
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 40 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Corvin LambSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.9%
Corvin Lamb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Samf 47Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
L.J. Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 23INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
100.0%
K'rondis Larry run for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for 5 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 7
50
-15
99.9%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Shaheed Salmon for a loss of 15 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Joshua Appleby punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
100.0%
Devlin Hodges run for 3 yds to the Samf 20Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+19
100.0%
Denzel Williams run for 19 yds to the Samf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for 6 yds to the Samf 45Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+9
100.0%
Devlin Hodges run for 9 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kevin Marion for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 5 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Roland Adams run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Darius Harvey for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Vaquan SmallSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Darius HarveySimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kevin MarionSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+3
100.0%
Devlin Hodges run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
100.0%
Corvin Lamb run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Corvin Lamb run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 6:15
John Wallace 50 yd FG GOOD
+1.3
TD · Q2 0:31
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Micky Crum for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+1.3
FG · Q2 10:17
Anthony Pistelli 32 yd FG GOOD
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com