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Georgia Tech 20 at Duke 34

DUKE
2015 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:31 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior−10.2Home team on offense+9.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Shaquille Powell 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — DUKE win probability +7.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +7.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:07: Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal — GT win probability +9.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: DeVon Edwards 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick) — DUKE win probability +21.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:02: Justin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +20.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 8GT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 10:49GT 4th & 6 at DUKE 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:11GT 4th & 6 at GT 48, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:01GT 4th & 16 at GT 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:38GT 4th & 3 at DUKE 36, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:03DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 44, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:56GT 4th & 13 at DUKE 47, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:32DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55GT 4th & 1 at DUKE 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−1.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:37GT 4th & 6 at GT 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:48DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 45, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:31GT 4th & 18 at GT 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−4.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07GT 4th & 8 at DUKE 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49DUKE 4th & 3 at GT 45, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−3.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:19GT 4th & 10 at GT 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:47DUKE 4th & 10 at GT 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:54GT 4th & 1 at DUKE 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−4.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−16.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:52DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:49DUKE 4th & 1 at GT 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:16GT 4th & 10 at GT 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:14DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:20DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30GT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:54DUKE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:02GT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:49DUKE Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:1027% → 28%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
27.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
27.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
27.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the GTech 49 Shaun Wilson fumbled, recovered by GTech Eason FromayanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4173% → 72%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
27.4%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
27.6%
Patrick Skov run for 6 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.7%
Patrick Skov run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
28.0%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+2
28.3%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
28.4%
Harrison Butker 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1829% → 33%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
28.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 17 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
29.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
29.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
29.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 6 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
29.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 12 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
30.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
30.5%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+9
30.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
30.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the GTech 6Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
31.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the GTech 4Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
32.7%
Shaquille Powell 4 Yd Run (Ross Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4368% → 67%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
32.0%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
31.7%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-4
32.0%
Clinton Lynch run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
33.2%
Ryan Rodwell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:4435% → 38%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+32
34.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 32 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
35.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-5
35.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Gabe Brandner) to the GTech 19Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+8
35.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the GTech 11Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
38.3%
T.J. Rahming 11 Yd pass from Thomas Sirk (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0362% → 59%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.0%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
38.7%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 22Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-8
39.9%
Justin Thomas sacked by Jeremy Cash for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 14Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+69
41.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 56 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 69 yds to the GTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
Shaquille Powell 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:0257% → 50%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
43.1%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 40 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by GTechSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
43.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to TaQuon Marshall for 17 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
43.4%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
43.8%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+4
48.5%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+1
50.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5658% → 59%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
57.5%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
58.9%
Jela Duncan run for 14 yds to the DUKE 48 DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
58.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
58.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
58.8%
Will Monday punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5644% → 40%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+30
55.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 30 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.0%
Broderick Snoddy run for 5 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+11
55.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
55.6%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 46 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by GTech Justin ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
57.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-1
57.9%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
60.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0864% → 68%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
64.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+2
66.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+10
66.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
67.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
67.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+7
67.5%
Will Monday punt for 48 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 7 yds to the GTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:4836% → 45%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
63.6%
Marcus Allen run for 8 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+35
62.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 35 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
60.4%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
61.2%
Patrick Skov run for 7 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
63.2%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
63.0%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
61.7%
Broderick Snoddy run for 7 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
61.9%
Isiah Willis run for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
63.8%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
62.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
62.7%
Patrick Skov run for no gain to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
55.1%
Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1659% → 57%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
58.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
59.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
58.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
57.0%
Will Monday punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
59.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1143% → 41%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.6%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the GTech 26Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
57.2%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.1%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 30 yds, downed at the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4061% → 61%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
61.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
61.7%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
60.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Will Monday punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0439% → 34%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.0%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
61.1%
Patrick Skov run for 10 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
60.9%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
61.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-10
62.9%
Justin Thomas sacked by Dwayne Norman for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 26Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+43
65.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4766% → 67%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.1%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
67.0%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
66.8%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted A.J. Gray return for 8 yds to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0738% → 45%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
62.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
62.3%
Clinton Lynch run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
65.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
55.5%
Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21INT
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:0025% → 19%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.5%
Marcus Allen run for 7 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
74.8%
Marcus Marshall run for 8 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-10
76.3%
Brad Stewart run for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+18
79.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 18 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
76.8%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-4
77.5%
Clinton Lynch run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+3
80.7%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Breon Borders return for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3385% → 88%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
85.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Braxton Deaver for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
85.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
85.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
86.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-1
89.5%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
89.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
88.3%
Will Monday punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2715% → 14%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
84.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
85.4%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Patrick SkovSimilar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
85.7%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+7
86.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 39 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 7 yds to the GTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2390% → 90%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
90.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 1 yd to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-3
90.8%
Thomas Sirk sacked by P.J. Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
90.0%
Will Monday punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 4:3212% → 33%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
87.7%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+10
87.2%
Patrick Skov run for 10 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.4%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
87.1%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
88.2%
Isiah Willis run for 5 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
88.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 33 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
86.5%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+11
86.7%
Patrick Skov run for 11 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
87.0%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-5
87.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 12Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
88.1%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
67.3%
Justin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5782% → 83%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jela Duncan for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Lawrence Austin return for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5334% → 28%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
65.8%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
65.6%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
69.7%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
72.1%
Patrick Skov run for no gain to the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5286% → 90%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
86.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
87.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Chris Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+7
86.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+29
90.2%
Will Monday punt for 44 yds , Jamal Golden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 38 Jamal Golden fumbled, recovered by GTech DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Johnell Barnes) to the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3424% → 23%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.4%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
77.3%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-2
76.6%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 39 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by Duke Britton GrierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:1494% → 98%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
93.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
94.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
95.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+30
98.3%
Shaquille Powell 30 Yd Run (Thomas Sirk Pass to Max McCaffrey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:222% → 1%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0699% → 99%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:54
DeVon Edwards 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ross Martin Kick)
+21.5
TD · Q4 8:02
Justin Thomas 12 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
-20.9
FG · Q3 7:07
Harrison Butker 48 Yd Field Goal
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com