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VT

Virginia Tech 51 at Purdue 24

PUR
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+2PUR 2.2%Markell Jones 60 Yd Run (Paul GriggsKick)AWAY 44 - HOME 24 · Q4 7:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · Markell Jones 60 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−41.5Score differential−23.5Pregame prior−2.5Garbage-time factor−16.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:03: Danny Ezechukwu 90 Yd Fumble Return (Paul Griggs Kick) — PUR win probability +4.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:00: Bucky Hodges 3 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +6.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:24: Paul Griggs 34 Yd Field Goal — PUR win probability +7.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:08: Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +9.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:10: J.C. Coleman 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:21PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53VT 4th & 7 at PUR 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50VT 4th & 15 at VT 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:03PUR 4th & 15 at PUR 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:11VT 4th & 15 at VT 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:24PUR 4th & 13 at VT 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42PUR 4th & 17 at PUR 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−4.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:53VT 4th & 17 at PUR 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:31PUR 4th & 11 at PUR 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:30VT 4th & 2 at PUR 46, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−3.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:40PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:55VT 4th & 3 at VT 18, up 17
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:00PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:34VT 4th & 7 at PUR 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:16VT 4th & 12 at PUR 40, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:00PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 39, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:19VT 4th & 7 at PUR 32, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:02PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 40, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:34PUR 4th & 15 at PUR 27, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:02VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56PUR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:03PUR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:00VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:08VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:10VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:02PUR Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:04VT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0930% → 30%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.8%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
29.9%
PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 16Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+13
30.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 13 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
30.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0770% → 69%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
30.4%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+40
30.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 40 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
30.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
30.8%
Brenden Motley run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
31.0%
Brenden Motley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
31.0%
Joey Slye 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4631% → 30%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.2%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-20
30.0%
Chuck Clark 20 Yd Fumble Return (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:4830% → 34%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
30.2%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
30.3%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
29.9%
Austin Appleby run for 8 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
30.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Cameron Posey for 27 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
31.0%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
31.1%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
31.2%
D.J. Knox run for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+15
30.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kendall Fuller) to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
31.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.6%
Austin Appleby 2 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 0
OPP 0
+2
33.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the VTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3068% → 66%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
32.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 14
50
+3
32.5%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-4
32.9%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 49 Brenden Motley fumbled, recovered by VTech Brenden MotleySimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
33.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4133% → 33%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.9%
Markell Jones run for 1 yd to the Prdue 21Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
33.0%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
32.8%
Markell Jones run for 6 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 69 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:0566% → 64%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
33.9%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 1Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+4
34.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sam Rogers for 4 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+11
34.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 11 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
34.3%
Brenden Motley run for 20 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+61
33.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 61 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.4%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the Prdue 2Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-90
36.4%
Danny Ezechukwu 90 Yd Fumble Return (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4161% → 68%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
38.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 10 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
37.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 25
OWN 29
+9
39.5%
Brenden Motley run for 9 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+10
39.6%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+13
38.6%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
38.4%
Travon McMillian run for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
37.8%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.9%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Deon NewsomeSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
38.4%
Brenden Motley run for 6 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+11
39.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
38.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Augie Conte) to the Prdue 14Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
38.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sam Rogers for 11 yds to the Prdue 3Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.5%
Bucky Hodges 3 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4735% → 34%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
35.4%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
35.2%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 17Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
34.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to D.J. KnoxSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 10
OWN 17
-5
34.0%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 12Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 15
OWN 12
-6
34.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4566% → 63%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.9%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
34.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
35.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
36.3%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
36.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Frankie Williams at the Prdue 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:3636% → 42%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
36.1%
Austin Appleby run for 5 yds to the Prdue 33 PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
35.7%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+1
35.8%
D.J. Knox run for 1 yd to the Prdue 24Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+32
33.8%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 32 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
38.4%
Jarrett Burgess run for 29 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
39.4%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-15
39.6%
PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 22
OPP 27
0
38.1%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 22
OPP 27
+4
36.4%
D.J. Knox run for 4 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+5
34.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+34
41.5%
Paul Griggs 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0061% → 75%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.6%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
39.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
40.2%
Trey Edmunds run for 16 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
36.8%
Trey Edmunds run for 35 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
33.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+18
34.4%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 18 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.8%
Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:1729% → 29%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
29.2%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
29.0%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to D.J. KnoxSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-7
28.1%
Austin Appleby sacked by Woody Baron for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 16Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
28.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:3272% → 76%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
27.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+19
25.9%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 19 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
24.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+53
24.4%
Joey Slye 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
30.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16FG
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5275% → 73%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
25.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+3
25.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
25.6%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
-5
26.2%
Brenden Motley sacked by Da'Wan Hunte for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 25 Brenden Motley fumbled, recovered by VTech Sam Rogers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
26.8%
Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0125% → 23%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
24.9%
Austin Appleby run for 3 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
24.7%
Austin Appleby run for 1 yd to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
23.9%
Austin Appleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-5
23.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 26Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+8
22.7%
Joe Schopper punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 8 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3776% → 75%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
24.4%
Brenden Motley run for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
24.1%
Sam Rogers run for 10 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
23.4%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
23.2%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 49 Brenden Motley fumbled, recovered by VTech Brenden MotleySimilar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
23.5%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 5 yds to the Prdue 46Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
24.6%
A.J. Hughes punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3124% → 22%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
23.5%
D.J. Knox run for 2 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
23.4%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Jarrett BurgessSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
22.5%
PURDUE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
22.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+29
21.8%
Joe Schopper punt for 46 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 29 yds to the Prdue 44 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Prdue 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1577% → 90%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
23.0%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
22.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 2 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
22.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
21.7%
Trey Edmunds run for 9 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
21.7%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
21.0%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 14Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+13
20.5%
Sam Rogers pass complete to Brenden Motley for 13 yds to the Prdue 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
J.C. Coleman 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:0613% → 14%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
12.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 9 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+19
13.3%
Markell Jones run for 19 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
14.0%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
14.1%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Adonis Alexander return for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4889% → 91%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
10.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 6Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+1
10.3%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the VTech 7Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+5
10.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+6
8.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
9.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23PUNT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4212% → 4%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
11.9%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
11.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
11.3%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Markell JonesSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+15
3.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Terrell Edmunds blocked by Terrell Edmunds Anthony Shegog return for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.4%
PURDUE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 20Similar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
3.1%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 2 yds to the Prdue 22Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
3.1%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Danny AnthropSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
3.0%
Austin Appleby pass complete to D.J. Knox for 8 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
3.1%
Austin Appleby run for 2 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4898% → 99%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
2.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
1.5%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
1.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
0.8%
Joey Slye 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.6%
Austin Appleby pass intercepted Sean Huelskamp return for no gain to the Prdue 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
0.5%
Dwayne Lawson run for 5 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
0.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
0.5%
Dwayne Lawson run for no gain to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-2
0.4%
Dwayne Lawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 40 Dwayne Lawson fumbled, recovered by VTech Dwayne LawsonSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
0.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:021% → 0%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
0.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 11 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
0.6%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Cole Herdman for 6 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
0.5%
Austin Appleby pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+2
0.4%
Austin Appleby pass complete to Cameron Posey for 2 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-4
0.4%
Austin Appleby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 35 Austin Appleby fumbled, recovered by Prdue Austin ApplebySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
0.3%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
0.3%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-3
0.3%
Dwayne Lawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 32Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Dwayne Lawson pass incomplete to C.J. CarrollSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 30TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:580% → 2%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
0.3%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 1 yd to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
0.3%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+7
0.2%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 7 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+60
2.2%
Markell Jones 60 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2199% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
0.7%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
0.7%
Travon McMillian run for 17 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
0.5%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Prdue 13Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
0.5%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
0.5%
PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Prdue 7Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
0.5%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.6%
Shai McKenzie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 6Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.6%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the Prdue 3Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Bucky Hodges 3 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 32DOWNS
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell JonesSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
0.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Dan MonterosoSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 10
OWN 32
-5
0.1%
PURDUE Penalty, False Start (Keenan Schon) to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+3
0.1%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 3 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
0.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
0.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 4 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+7
0.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 7 yds to the Prdue 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
0.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 2 yds to the Prdue 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:10
J.C. Coleman 1 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)
-10.5
TD · Q2 1:08
Brenden Motley 5 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)
-9.5
FG · Q2 2:24
Paul Griggs 34 Yd Field Goal
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com