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W&M

William & Mary 29 at Virginia 35

UVA
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:04 · Matt Johns pass intercepted DeAndre Houston-Carson return for 10 yds to the WmMry 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+0.3Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:23: Jordan Ellis run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +4.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q2 5:07: Nick Dorka Jr. 21 yd FG GOOD — W&M win probability +7.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:46: Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 26 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:29: Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 80 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:18: Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka Jr. KICK) — W&M win probability +9.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4W&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q2 14:50W&M 4th & 3 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:16W&M 4th & 6 at UVA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:07W&M 4th & 4 at UVA 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:35W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 47, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00W&M 4th & 9 at W&M 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:00W&M 4th & 18 at W&M 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:20W&M 4th & 9 at W&M 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:27UVA 4th & 5 at W&M 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:30W&M 4th & 1 at UVA 1, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:57UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 1, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:18W&M 4th & 4 at UVA 4, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:18UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:01W&M 4th & 7 at UVA 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−2.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4W&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:57W&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:44UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:50W&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:23UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:46UVA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:29UVA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:18W&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
W&MDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:036% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.4%
Steve Cluley run for 5 yds to the WmMry 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.4%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 4 yds to the WmMry 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.4%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 4 yds to the WmMry 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
94.4%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 21 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
93.7%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka Jr. KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
17 plays · 84 yds · 9:1394% → 92%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
93.7%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
93.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
93.7%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
93.8%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+13
93.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 13 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
93.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 13 yds to the WmMry 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
93.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 13 yds to the WmMry 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
93.8%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the WmMry 21Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
93.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 3 yds to the WmMry 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.8%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the WmMry 15Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
93.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the WmMry 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
93.8%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the WmMry 1Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
93.8%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 3Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:549% → 13%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.3%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 8 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
91.1%
DeVonte Dedmon run for 4 yds to the WmMry 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.2%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 4 yds to the WmMry 41Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
91.0%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to C. Reeves, PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 15 yards to the VA44, 1ST DOWN WM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
90.9%
Kevin Hart run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 16
50
-5
91.1%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WmMry 45Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+16
91.2%
Kendell Anderson run for 16 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
91.0%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Kevin Hart for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+37
87.1%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Andrew Caskin for 37 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka Jr. KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
87.5%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Josh Dulaney return for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 5FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4914% → 15%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.1%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 4 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
86.0%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+5
86.1%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
86.2%
Steve Cluley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
84.9%
Nick Dorka Jr. 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5384% → 89%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
84.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 36 yds to the WmMry 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
88.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 7FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:1613% → 21%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
87.2%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Christian Reeves for 9 yds to the WmMry 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
87.0%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 9 yds to the WmMry 45Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
86.6%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Kevin HartSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+9
86.8%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 9 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
86.5%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 11 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
86.3%
Kendell Anderson run for 12 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
86.2%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Christian Reeves for 7 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
86.2%
Kendell Anderson run for 1 yd to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
86.5%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 5 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
86.2%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
86.3%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Mikal Abdul-Saboor for 7 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
86.5%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Andrew Caskin for 1 yd to the Virg 4Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
78.6%
Nick Dorka Jr. 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:2180% → 88%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
80.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
80.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 6 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+8
79.7%
Matt Johns run for 8 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
80.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+43
80.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to David Eldridge for 43 yds to the WmMry 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
87.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 26 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1115% → 14%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.2%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
84.7%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the WmMry 29Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Andrew CaskinSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+20
85.8%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 60 yds , Maurice Canady returns for 20 yds to the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:1385% → 84%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
85.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+4
85.0%
Matt Johns run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+21
84.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 21 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
86.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the WmMry 48Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-5
86.3%
Matt Johns run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 47 Matt Johns fumbled, recovered by Virg Matt JohnsSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+10
84.1%
Matt Johns pass intercepted DeAndre Houston-Carson return for 10 yds to the WmMry 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.8%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte Dedmon, broken up by Tim HarrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
83.3%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 8 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-7
82.8%
Steve Cluley sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 7 yards to the WmMry 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
84.7%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5184% → 90%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Daniel Hamm run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
90.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 80 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 13PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:2911% → 6%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.4%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 18Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
89.7%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the WmMry 20Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
90.1%
Steve Cluley sacked by David Dean for a loss of 8 yards to the WmMry 12Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+74
93.8%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 62 yds , Maurice Canady returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:407% → 7%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
93.0%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Kevin Hart for 4 yds to the WmMry 35Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Steve Cluley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-10
92.6%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Offensive holding (Jerry Ugokwe) to the WmMry 25Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+7
93.3%
Kendell Anderson run for 7 yds to the WmMry 32Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+30
93.3%
Hunter Windmuller punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 48 , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for 30 yds to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 28 yds · 3:3494% → 96%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
94.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the WmMry 46Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+2
94.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the WmMry 44Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
93.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the WmMry 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Connor Wingo-Reeves for 6 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
94.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the WmMry 31Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
94.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the WmMry 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
94.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
94.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Stephen LubnowSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+5
94.1%
Frye, I field goal attempt from 46 MISSED - hit left upright,, PENALTY WM roughing the kicker (Trey Reed) 5 yards to the WM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
95.6%
Ian Frye 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 16DOWNS
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:576% → 4%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
93.9%
Steve Cluley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WmMry 22 Steve Cluley fumbled, recovered by WmMry Steve CluleySimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+9
94.2%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 9 yds to the WmMry 31Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+6
93.6%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Mikal Abdul-Saboor for 6 yds to the WmMry 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
93.4%
Kendell Anderson run for 9 yds to the WmMry 46Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
92.7%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Christian Reeves for 7 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
92.7%
Steve Cluley run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
92.3%
Kendell Anderson run for 3 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
92.4%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
92.5%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Jones) to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+10
93.1%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Jack Armstrong for 10 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
94.6%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Andrew Caskin for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
94.2%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Christian ReevesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+15
94.6%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte Dedmon, PENALTY VA roughing passer (Moore, M) 15 yards to the VA16, 1ST DOWN WM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.7%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
93.7%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Kevin Hart for 1 yd to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+9
94.2%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 9 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.7%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 2 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.7%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 1 yd to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.6%
Christian Reeves pass incomplete to Steve Cluley, broken up by Kelvin RaineySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17SF
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2798% → 97%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
98.3%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
98.2%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
98.3%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 11
OWN 1
0
97.0%
Nicholas Conte punt blocked for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 18TD
14 plays · 49 yds · 3:394% → 13%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
95.6%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WmMry 41Similar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
96.2%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+18
96.3%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Christian Reeves for 18 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
95.4%
Mikal Abdul-Saboor run for 3 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
95.5%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Mikal Abdul-Saboor for 18 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
94.8%
Kendell Anderson run for 3 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+10
94.6%
DeVonte Dedmon run for 10 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.6%
Kendell Anderson run for no gain to the Virg 7Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.6%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Andrew WeidingerSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
95.9%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Mikal Abdul-Saboor for 3 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.0%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka Jr. KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-8
89.4%
Matt Johns sacked by Tyler Claytor for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+11
89.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 11 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+28
88.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 58 yds , DeVonte Dedmon returns for 28 yds to the WmMry 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
91.3%
Steve Cluley pass complete to Daniel Kuzjak for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Kevin HartSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
90.8%
Steve Cluley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
91.4%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to Daniel KuzjakSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+10
92.2%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte Dedmon, PENALTY VA holding (Canady, M) 10 yards to the VA33, 1ST DOWN WM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
88.2%
Steve Cluley sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 41 Steve Cluley fumbled, recovered by WmMry Jared Templeton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+11
92.0%
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 11 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
90.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Steve Cluley pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-3
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:18
Steve Cluley pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Dorka Jr. KICK)
-9.9
FG · Q2 5:07
Nick Dorka Jr. 21 yd FG GOOD
-7.9
TD · Q2 1:46
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 26 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com