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PITT

Pittsburgh 24 at Iowa 27

IOWA
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ryan Winslow punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense−3.5Score differential−3.8Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:11: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:44: Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +11.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:04: Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +24.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:52: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +43.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Marshall Koehn 57 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +32.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59IOWA 4th & 9 at PITT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:08IOWA 4th & 16 at IOWA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:25PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 37, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:40PITT 4th & 4 at IOWA 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:51IOWA 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:51IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 6 at IOWA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:04PITT 4th & 3 at IOWA 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−10.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:28PITT 4th & 15 at IOWA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00IOWA 4th & 2 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−5.7
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    36% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:12IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:11PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:44IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:04IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:52PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−2.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 7 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
52.6%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
52.6%
Marshall Koehn punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
52.7%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
52.7%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+7
52.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
52.7%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Desmond King return for no gain to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1553% → 54%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
53.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
53.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
53.3%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 6 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
53.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun Smith, broken up by Avonte Maddox for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
53.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-2
53.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
53.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
54.0%
Marshall Koehn 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4INT
8 plays · 70 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.1%
Tyler Boyd run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
54.0%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
53.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 36 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
53.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 22 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
53.2%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Iowa 5Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.2%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the Iowa 5Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.4%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted, touchback. Desmond King return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.7%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
54.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 11 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
54.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 4 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
55.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
54.5%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Jacob HillyerSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
54.1%
Dillon Kidd punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
55.5%
Tyler Boyd run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Chris James run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds , Desmond King returns for no gain to the Iowa 25 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:1455% → 62%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+51
55.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 51 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
57.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 1 yd to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Lafayette Pitts) to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
57.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 3 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
57.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
61.9%
C.J. Beathard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.3%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
61.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
60.9%
Chris James run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
62.3%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Blythe) to the Iowa 9Similar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+20
62.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 20 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
62.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
62.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 4 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+23
61.9%
C.J. Beathard pass intercepted Terrish Webb return for 23 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
53.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 15 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:0356% → 56%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
56.4%
C.J. Beathard sacked by Matt Galambos for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+4
56.1%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to George Kittle for 4 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-5
56.7%
[SG], PENALTY IOWA false start (Myers, Boone) 5 yards to the IOWA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+6
56.7%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 6 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
56.2%
Dillon Kidd punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
56.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
55.7%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:5959% → 75%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
59.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+18
59.4%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 18 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.1%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
60.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 14 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
61.6%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
61.5%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 7 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
62.9%
C.J. Beathard run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
64.0%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
63.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+10
63.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 10 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
64.0%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
75.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:4027% → 26%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
73.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
73.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 16 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
72.5%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Nate Meier for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+2
74.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
74.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:2030% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
69.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 11 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
68.9%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
68.5%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
68.5%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
67.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 13 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
67.9%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
66.4%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
67.7%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
67.8%
Chris Blewitt 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT TD
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:4972% → 55%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
72.3%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
72.0%
C.J. Beathard run for 4 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
73.0%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
71.8%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 13 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.3%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Matt VandeBergSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
73.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 11
50
0
72.2%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 11
50
+28
55.0%
Dillon Kidd punt blocked by Ryan Lewis blocked by Ryan Lewis Pat Amara Jr. return for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
56.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 10 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
56.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+6
57.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
58.4%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
56.5%
Dillon Kidd punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:0948% → 49%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
52.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
53.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
51.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
51.8%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+16
53.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 16 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
47.7%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
47.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
47.4%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
50.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
51.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Desmond King at the Iowa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:4656% → 90%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
56.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 9 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
59.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+32
57.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 32 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
61.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Macon Plewa for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
63.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
61.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 6 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
63.2%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Blythe) to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+4
61.9%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+17
60.6%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Jordan Canzeri for 17 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
63.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Matt VandeBerg for 12 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1216% → 62%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
84.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 19 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
80.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 22 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
76.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 3 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
76.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
78.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jaymar ParrishSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
80.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
76.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-1
76.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-6
79.2%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Nate Meier for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+19
89.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 19 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to J.P. HoltzSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
37.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:5256% → 94%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
56.4%
C.J. Beathard run for 12 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
60.2%
C.J. Beathard pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 4 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
61.3%
C.J. Beathard run for 7 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.7%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
64.4%
C.J. Beathard pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
61.4%
C.J. Beathard run for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+57
94.2%
Marshall Koehn 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:52
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-43.5
FG · Q4 0:00
Marshall Koehn 57 yd FG GOOD
+32.1
TD · Q4 6:04
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com