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ILL

Illinois 14 at North Carolina 48

UNC
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:33 · Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+15.0Pregame prior+6.6Score differential+6.4Garbage-time factor+2.1Blowout margin+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:46: Romar Morris run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:55: Nick Weiler 32 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +4.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:52: Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +7.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:28: Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +7.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:50: Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:53ILL 4th & 1 at UNC 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11UNC 4th & 10 at ILL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:37ILL 4th & 12 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:55UNC 4th & 6 at ILL 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:30ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:48ILL 4th & 13 at UNC 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:33UNC 4th & 9 at ILL 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:39ILL 4th & 6 at UNC 46, down 20
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:01ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:29ILL 4th & 7 at midfield, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:02ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 46, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:50ILL 4th & 1 at UNC 1, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 1:46UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:52ILL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:28UNC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:50UNC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:56UNC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:52UNC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:50ILL Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:0229% → 30%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 13 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
71.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
71.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 5 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
70.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+19
70.8%
Marchie Murdock run for 19 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
70.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 7 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+8
70.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 8 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
70.3%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
70.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+12
70.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 12 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2INT
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3171% → 71%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
70.6%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+39
70.5%
Elijah Hood run for 39 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
70.9%
Marquise Williams run for 8 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
71.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
71.0%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
70.9%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
70.8%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Eaton Spence return for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5330% → 30%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
70.2%
Ryan Frain punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5870% → 71%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+37
70.9%
Marquise Williams run for 22 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
71.0%
Ryan Switzer run for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+4
70.3%
Austin Proehl run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+4
70.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
70.6%
Nick Weiler 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0029% → 30%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
70.6%
Lunt, Wes rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS29, PENALTY UNC personal foul 15 yards to the ILLINOIS44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
69.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
69.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Joe Spencer) to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
70.3%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:1472% → 75%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
71.6%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+7
71.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 7 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
71.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 20 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.1%
Romar Morris run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0126% → 25%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
74.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 25 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
73.5%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 12
50
0
74.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
50
0
74.4%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 12
50
+71
75.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 40 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 71 yds to the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3476% → 80%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
75.7%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
75.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
75.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
80.2%
Nick Weiler 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5322% → 30%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
78.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
78.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 4 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+52
79.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 52 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
77.7%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
77.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
78.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Lunt, Wes pass incomplete, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside 0 yards to the UNC1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.2%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:1274% → 84%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
74.0%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
74.0%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+11
73.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.4%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
76.1%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
76.3%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 6
50
+41
76.4%
Marquise Williams run for 41 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:4519% → 17%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
81.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
81.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+18
81.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 18 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
81.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
50
-2
81.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-5
82.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Ke'Shawn Vaughn) to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
82.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Ryan Frain punt for 55 yds, downed at the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:1484% → 86%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
83.8%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
83.9%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+4
84.4%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
84.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+12
85.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.4%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
86.1%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
85.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Corbin Daly punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13DOWNS
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0117% → 19%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
82.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 19 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+57
81.1%
Taylor Zalewski 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4184% → 84%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.1%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
83.6%
Marquise Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
84.9%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
85.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
85.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
84.1%
Corbin Daly punt for 52 yds, downed at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15MISSED FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:0216% → 14%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
83.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
84.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+6
84.3%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
85.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+16
85.0%
Lunt, Wes pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC roughing passer (Jones, Nazair) 16 yards to the ILLINOIS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
84.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 4 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
84.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 5 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
84.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 22 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
83.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-10
84.3%
Lunt, Wes pass complete to Mays, Sam for 16 yards to the UNC1, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (DiLauro, Christian) 10 yards to the UNC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
85.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Marchie MurdockSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
86.5%
Taylor Zalewski 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0688% → 89%
Q3 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+27
88.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 27 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
88.3%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
90.0%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
89.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
89.2%
Corbin Daly punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5012% → 12%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
87.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
87.9%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
88.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Dionte TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 7
OWN 18
-7
88.5%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:3991% → 96%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
90.6%
Williams, Marquise pass incomplete to Davis, Quinshad, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Bentley, V'Angelo) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
90.7%
Logan, T.J. rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS44, PENALTY UNC holding (Crowley, Lucas) 10 yards to the UNC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+12
90.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 12 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
91.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 18 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
91.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Landon Turner) to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 15
OPP 29
-5
91.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+34
96.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:023% → 2%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
97.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
97.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
50
0
97.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
50
+4
97.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+21
97.8%
Ryan Frain punt for 34 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 21 yds to the NCaro 25 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3698% → 100%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
98.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 21 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
98.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+7
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
98.5%
Marquise Williams run for 18 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
98.6%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Christian DiLauro) to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 37 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Logan, T.J. for loss of 2 yards to the UNC28, PENALTY ILLINOIS face mask (Finney, Eric) 15 yards to the UNC45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.8%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Fieulleteau for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 8 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Elijah Hood run for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 12 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Henry Enyenihi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 7
50
0
99.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 7
50
0
99.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 7
50
+85
99.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 35 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
18 plays · 63 yds · 6:190% → 0%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Andrew Davis for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Henry Enyenihi run for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Henry Enyenihi run for 2 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Andrew Davis for 1 yd to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Henry Enyenihi run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Andrew Davis for 7 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Desmond CainSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+16
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Desmond Cain for 16 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Henry Enyenihi run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:52
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 6:28
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+7
TD · Q3 1:50
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com