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NEB

Nebraska 33 at Miami 36

MIA
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—MIA 99.3%Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 33 · Q4 11:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:14 · Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 156Home team on offense+32.2Score differential+21.8Pregame prior+2.8Garbage-time factor+11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.0Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:50: Joseph Yearby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:03: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +7.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:46: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +8.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:33: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Jordan Westerkamp for Two-Point Conversion) — NEB win probability +50.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +20.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:05NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40NEB 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:11MIA 4th & 6 at NEB 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22NEB 4th & 3 at MIA 47, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:15MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 14, up 17
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37NEB 4th & 7 at MIA 32, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:05MIA 4th & 10 at NEB 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:11NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:26MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:42MIA 4th & 6 at NEB 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:18NEB 4th & 29 at NEB 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:13MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 37, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:40NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:14MIA 4th & 1 at NEB 11, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55MIA 4th & 22 at MIA 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:46NEB 4th & 12 at MIA 21, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:39MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 46, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:49MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:04MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:50MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03NEB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:36NEB Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:46NEB Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:33NEB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.7%−8.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4535% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.5%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Lane HoveySimilar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:0465% → 66%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
65.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 12 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
65.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
65.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 32 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0134% → 33%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.0%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
66.1%
Imani Cross run for 5 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
66.2%
Brandon Reilly run for 10 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.3%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 9
50
0
66.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 9
50
0
66.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:2667% → 71%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
67.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+38
67.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 38 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
67.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
70.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:0730% → 29%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
69.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Neb 23Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
70.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Sam Cotton for 8 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
70.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 38 yds, downed at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:3172% → 77%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
71.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
72.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
50
+7
72.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
73.0%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Scott, Rashawn, PENALTY NEBRASKA pass interference (Cockrell, Byerson) 15 yards to the NEBRASKA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
73.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
73.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the Neb 21Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+6
73.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 6 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+12
73.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 12 yds to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
74.1%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Neb 2Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.3%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Neb 1Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
74.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Alex Gall) to the Neb 6Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
76.7%
Michael Badgley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3424% → 22%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
75.6%
Imani Cross run for 8 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Kendrick Norton) to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
75.5%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass complete to Westerkamp, Jordan for 19 yards to the MIAMIFL35, PENALTY NEBRASKA illegal formation 5 yards to the NEBRASKA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
77.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for no gain to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+14
77.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
76.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Anthony Moten for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
77.6%
Sam Foltz punt for 40 yds, downed at the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0079% → 80%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
78.8%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
79.3%
Walton, Mark rush for 2 yards to the MIAMIFL10, PENALTY MIAMIFL illegal formation 4 yards to the MIAMIFL4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+10
79.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 10 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
80.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+9
80.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 57 yds , Jordan Westerkamp returns for 9 yds to the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2821% → 24%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
79.2%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+23
79.1%
Terrell Newby run for 23 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
78.7%
Imani Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
80.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+5
80.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
76.4%
Drew Brown 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1578% → 83%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+52
78.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 52 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
78.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
78.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Stacy Coley) to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+10
78.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 10 yds to the Neb 13Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+5
78.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 5 yds to the Neb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
79.2%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 10Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
83.2%
Michael Badgley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3418% → 17%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
81.7%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-1
81.6%
Terrell Newby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 32Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
82.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Lane HoveySimilar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+15
83.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 56 yds , Corn Elder returns for 15 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3985% → 84%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-12
85.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Freedom Akinmoladun for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 22
OWN 15
+8
85.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 8 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
84.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+24
84.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 52 yds , Jordan Westerkamp returns for 24 yds to the Neb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13INT
12 plays · 37 yds · 1:4617% → 19%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
82.8%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-5
82.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 49Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
83.5%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass complete to Westerkamp, Jordan for 21 yards to the MIAMIFL30, PENALTY NEBRASKA personal foul 15 yards to the NEBRASKA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+6
84.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+27
84.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 27 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
81.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+12
81.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
81.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
81.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Artie Burns return for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0987% → 86%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
86.5%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
86.4%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0586% → 94%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 12 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
85.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
86.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 12 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
93.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:438% → 14%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.9%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass complete to Carter, Cethan for 11 yards to the NEBRASKA36, PENALTY NEBRASKA ineligible downfield on pass (Lewis, Alex) 5 yards to the NEBRASKA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+18
93.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 18 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
93.0%
Brandon Reilly run for 4 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
93.4%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
93.5%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Reilly, Brandon, PENALTY MIAMIFL sideline interference 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
50
0
94.2%
Imani Cross run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
50
+12
94.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
94.4%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+7
94.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 7 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
86.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:5891% → 96%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
91.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 4 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
91.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
91.5%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
91.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 9 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
92.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+34
92.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Tyre Brady for 34 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
92.9%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the Neb 22Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
93.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the Neb 19Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-5
93.3%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the Neb 14 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sunny Odogwu) to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
93.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
95.7%
Michael Badgley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:104% → 3%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+31
96.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 31 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.1%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-21
96.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 21 yards to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 29
OWN 36
+16
97.3%
Sam Foltz punt for 45 yds , Corn Elder returns for 16 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0198% → 99%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:083% → 2%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
97.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Deon Bush return for no gain to the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 12 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the Neb 8Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
99.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
99.1%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted, touchback. Joshua Kalu return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+13
98.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 53 yds , Corn Elder returns for 13 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 13 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
99.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 28 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 9 yds to the Neb 11Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
99.3%
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:301% → 6%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
98.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 10 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
98.7%
Terrell Newby run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
98.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Ryne Reeves) to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+15
98.8%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete to Cotton, Sam, PENALTY MIAMIFL personal foul (Bush, Deon) 15 yards to the MIAMIFL39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
98.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Taariq Allen for 12 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
98.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 17 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 10 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Cethan Carter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT
13 plays · -1 yds · 2:2798% → 99%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
97.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
97.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 13 yds to the Neb 34 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Standish Dobard) to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
97.8%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-5
98.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+5
98.7%
Vogel, Justin punt 34 yards to the NEBRASKA14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NEBRASKA roughing the kicker 5 yards to the NEBRASKA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-15
98.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 17
OWN 42
-5
98.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:014% → 12%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+21
96.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 21 yds to the Neb 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
96.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 7 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+33
96.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 33 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
96.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
96.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+3
96.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+21
88.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 21 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5697% → 98%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
97.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
98.1%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
98.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:028% → 64%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
92.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 4 yds to the Neb 17Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+56
86.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 41 yds to the MIAMIFL 42 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Carter) to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
85.7%
Alonzo Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
88.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+16
91.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
85.9%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
35.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Jordan Westerkamp for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
58.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 30INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+47
40.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Corn Elder return for 47 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 31FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
64.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (Alex Lewis) to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
64.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the Neb 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
64.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the Neb 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-5
62.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Neb 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-3
62.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 11Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
79.0%
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:33
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Jordan Westerkamp for Two-Point Conversion)
-50
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21
FG · OT 0:00
Michael Badgley 28 yd FG GOOD
+20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com