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Georgia Tech 22 at Notre Dame 30

ND
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:32 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense+1.6Pregame prior+10.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:26: Patrick Skov run for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +13.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: C.J. Prosise run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon PAT MISSED) — ND win probability +8.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:10: Justin Yoon 29 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +4.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:54: C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +9.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Justin Thomas pass complete to Patrick Skov for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +9.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 11:57ND 4th & 5 at ND 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58GT 4th & 8 at GT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:01ND 4th & 9 at ND 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:25GT 4th & 1 at ND 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:34GT 4th & 10 at ND 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:40ND 4th & 4 at ND 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46GT 4th & 12 at GT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07GT 4th & 10 at GT 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16GT 4th & 17 at ND 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:10ND 4th & 4 at GT 12, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:37GT 4th & 16 at ND 32, down 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:56ND 4th & 3 at GT 38, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−2.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:18GT 4th & 9 at GT 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:46GT 4th & 16 at GT 31, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:11ND 4th & 3 at ND 26, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:03GT 4th & 9 at GT 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:45GT 4th & 2 at ND 48, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 8:20ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:26GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:40ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:54ND Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:58ND Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:48GT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:22GT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4862% → 62%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Aliz Jones for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
61.9%
C.J. Prosise run for 8 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
62.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
62.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Mike McGlinchey) to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+3
61.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+8
61.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 8 yds to the GTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4138% → 38%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
61.7%
Broderick Snoddy run for 4 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
61.6%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-4
61.7%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
62.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2062% → 65%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
62.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Aliz Jones for 8 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
62.5%
C.J. Prosise run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+14
62.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 14 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Aliz JonesSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
62.6%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Adam Gotsis for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 46 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( 0 Yards) to the GTech 46Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 20
OPP 46
+46
64.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2836% → 35%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.3%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
64.3%
Qua Searcy run for 4 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.4%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to TaQuon MarshallSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2165% → 65%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
65.1%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+5
65.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 5 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
65.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+17
64.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 17 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:2036% → 33%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
64.2%
TaQuon Marshall run for 13 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
63.8%
Justin Thomas run for 8 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
63.8%
Patrick Skov run for 1 yd to the NDame 17 Patrick Skov fumbled, recovered by GTech Patrick SkovSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
64.4%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
66.0%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
65.1%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
65.2%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
66.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to TaQuon MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
67.1%
Harrison Butker 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2168% → 68%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
67.5%
C.J. Prosise run for 8 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
68.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 5 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
67.8%
Torii Hunter Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-1
68.9%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-1
68.7%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
67.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4331% → 29%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
68.8%
Qua Searcy run for 5 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
68.8%
Patrick Skov run for 6 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Qua SearcySimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
69.3%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
69.9%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 7
OWN 31
-5
70.3%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Domonique Noble) to the GTech 26Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
71.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4171% → 72%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
70.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 13 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
71.5%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+27
71.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 27 yds to the GTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
72.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the GTech 10Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
72.9%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the GTech 5Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Aliz JonesSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.4%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted, touchback. D.J. White return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2229% → 45%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
71.5%
Broderick Snoddy run for 17 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
71.0%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+53
69.2%
Broderick Snoddy run for 48 yds to the NOTREDAME 10 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.4%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:3663% → 74%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
62.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
61.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 10 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
63.0%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-1
63.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+36
62.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 36 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
66.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 9 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
66.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 6 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
65.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
73.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:2529% → 28%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Broderick Snoddy run for no gain to the GTech 25Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.8%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
71.0%
Justin Thomas sacked by Joe Schmidt for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 25Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 45 yds, downed at the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2070% → 71%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+14
69.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 14 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
71.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Aliz Jones for a loss of 5 yards Aliz Jones fumbled, forced by Tyler Marcordes, recovered by GTech Adam GotsisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2936% → 27%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
64.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (KeiVarae Russell) to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 17
OPP 26
0
70.4%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 17
OPP 26
0
71.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to TaQuon MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+43
73.4%
Harrison Butker 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
71.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:5732% → 33%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Isiah Willis for 7 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
66.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerry Tillery) to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
67.3%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 18 Justin Thomas fumbled, forced by Matthias Farley, recovered by NDame Jaylon Smith , return for 17 yds to the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3573% → 76%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
73.4%
C.J. Prosise run for no gain to the GTech 18Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
73.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Ronnie Stanley) to the GTech 23Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
72.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+11
71.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 11 yds to the GTech 12Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
76.3%
Justin Yoon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:2625% → 20%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 10 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.5%
Broderick Snoddy run for 4 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
73.7%
Qua Searcy run for 7 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
73.7%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
50
+10
73.5%
Justin Thomas run for 10 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
73.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Isiah Willis for 9 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+5
72.1%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
74.3%
Qua Searcy run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-10
74.5%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Errin Joe) to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+1
76.2%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
78.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 16
OPP 32
0
79.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Qua SearcySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1880% → 81%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
79.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
80.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+20
79.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 20 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
82.5%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd to the GTech 44Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
82.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Nic Weishar for 6 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
82.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
80.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3019% → 17%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
81.1%
Justin Thomas run for 19 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
80.5%
Qua Searcy run for 1 yd to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
80.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
82.2%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+6
83.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 36 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0884% → 94%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
83.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 17 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
84.1%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+6
84.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 6 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
84.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 8 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+11
84.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 11 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
84.9%
C.J. Prosise run for 6 yds to the GTech 6Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
85.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.8%
DeShone Kizer run for no gain to the GTech 1Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:368% → 5%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.0%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the GTech 17Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
92.3%
Broderick Snoddy run for 3 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+17
93.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 17 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
93.4%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
93.7%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
94.4%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 31 Qua Searcy run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+1
95.2%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 51 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 1 yd to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3096% → 96%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
95.9%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+4
96.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Brown for 4 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+18
95.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds , Jamal Golden returns for 18 yds to the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:015% → 4%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.6%
Broderick Snoddy run for 1 yd to the GTech 40Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
95.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
96.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:0596% → 99%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
96.2%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-10
96.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+91
99.2%
C.J. Prosise run for 91 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 5:311% → 3%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.5%
Clinton Lynch run for 8 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-5
99.4%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
99.5%
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
99.5%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 11 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.5%
Patrick Skov run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 4
50
0
99.5%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 4
50
+2
99.6%
Patrick Skov run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+4
99.6%
Patrick Skov run for 4 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Austin McClellanSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
99.6%
Clinton Lynch run for 17 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Antonio MessickSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.5%
Patrick Skov run for 3 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+24
97.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Patrick Skov for 24 yds for a TD, (C. Lynch Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:143% → 12%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
97.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 28 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
88.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Patrick Skov for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Patrick Skov run for 5 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 13:54
C.J. Prosise run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q4 0:22
Justin Thomas pass complete to Patrick Skov for 15 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com