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NU

Northwestern 19 at Duke 10

DUKE
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:53 · Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense−23.0Pregame prior+1.0Garbage-time factor−11.1Score differential−10.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:46: Ross Martin kickoff for 63 yds , Solomon Vault return for 98 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell PAT BLOCKED) — NU win probability +9.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: One-score game).
  2. FG · Q3 9:46: Jack Mitchell 44 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +5.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:20: Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 38 — DUKE win probability +6.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:25: Ross Martin 38 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +9.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 12:31: Warren Long run for 55 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +16.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 14NU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 12:17DUKE 4th & 3 at NU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50NU 4th & 8 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32NU 4th & 10 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:12DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:21NU 4th & 1 at NU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53NU 4th & 16 at NU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:08DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:42NU 4th & 7 at NU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:16DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:55NU 4th & 6 at NU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:00DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 6:13NU 4th & 9 at NU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 3:12NU 4th & 11 at NU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:23NU 4th & 11 at DUKE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−5.5
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 27, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 14:03DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  18. Q3 9:46NU 4th & 17 at DUKE 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−11.0
    average punt
  19. Q3 7:54DUKE 4th & 1 at NU 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.2%−3.9
    average punt
  20. Q3 5:51DUKE 4th & 7 at NU 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q3 2:06DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−3.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  22. Q3 0:42NU 4th & 5 at NU 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:25DUKE 4th & 2 at NU 20, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%−2.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−17.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 10:28DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  25. Q4 7:53NU 4th & 4 at NU 37, up 9
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 6:03DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  27. Q4 5:44NU 4th & 3 at NU 13, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:17DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:46NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:31NU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1458% → 58%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
58.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
58.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
58.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 18 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
58.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 5 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
58.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
58.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Will Monday punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1142% → 42%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.1%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
57.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
58.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
58.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+24
58.1%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted DeVon Edwards return for 24 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1959% → 61%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
58.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 10 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
59.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 7Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 5
OPP 7
0
59.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
59.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
60.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2040% → 39%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
60.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Jelani Roberts for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
60.7%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
61.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
61.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4661% → 61%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
61.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
61.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+7
60.8%
Will Monday punt for 50 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1139% → 38%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
61.3%
Solomon Vault run for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-6
61.2%
Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 23 Clayton Thorson fumbled, forced by Jeremy Cash, recovered by Nwest Clayton ThorsonSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
62.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
62.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, downed at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0462% → 62%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
62.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 15 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
63.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-10
63.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 10 yards T.J. Rahming fumbled, recovered by DukeSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+1
62.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 1 yd to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
62.1%
Will Monday punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:0737% → 36%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
62.6%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
62.3%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
62.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
62.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
62.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
62.0%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
62.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-13
62.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Deion Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+3
64.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 3 yds to the Duke 42 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3964% → 63%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
63.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 1 yd to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+1
63.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
63.0%
Will Monday punt for 58 yds, downed at the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1636% → 35%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
63.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
64.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
64.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 7
OWN 26
-2
65.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2365% → 64%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.9%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
64.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
64.0%
Will Monday punt for 57 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1135% → 33%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
64.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
65.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Stephen BuckleySimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+1
66.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
66.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds, downed at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4566% → 67%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
66.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
67.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
68.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-15
68.6%
DUKE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 23
OWN 33
+8
67.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+6
67.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
66.5%
Will Monday punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4233% → 32%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
66.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
67.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
67.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-2
68.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0269% → 72%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
69.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
69.6%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+32
69.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 32 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
71.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 15 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
71.7%
Shaquille Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+18
72.0%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Dean Lowry return for 18 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3432% → 30%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
68.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
69.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
70.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
70.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
70.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 16 yds to the Duke 40 Shaun Wilson fumbled, forced by Godwin Igwebuike, recovered by Nwest Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3333% → 34%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
66.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 21 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
65.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 9
OPP 18
-2
65.5%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
68.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
66.3%
Jack Mitchell 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:1564% → 64%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
64.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
64.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
62.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
63.6%
Will Monday punt for 71 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3357% → 53%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
56.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
56.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
53.2%
Will Monday punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1049% → 55%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
51.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 21 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
49.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
48.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
49.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
48.4%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+20
47.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 20 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
46.7%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-3
48.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 19
OPP 29
+2
50.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
44.7%
Jack Mitchell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:4145% → 44%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
44.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 13 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
46.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
47.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
46.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Ryan Smith for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
45.4%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
47.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 7 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
47.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
49.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
49.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
47.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Max McCaffreySimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+2
44.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5860% → 65%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
40.1%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
39.0%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
38.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
37.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
36.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 45Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
37.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 9 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.5%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Alonzo Saxton II return for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1442% → 39%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
41.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
44.4%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
44.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
44.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-9
43.1%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tanner Stone) to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+5
39.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
38.5%
Will Monday punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1863% → 61%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
36.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
37.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds, downed at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FG
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:0943% → 53%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
43.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 30 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
46.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
46.0%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
43.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
52.8%
Ross Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4855% → 76%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.1%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
42.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 5 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
42.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
40.4%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+55
23.8%
Warren Long run for 55 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4726% → 20%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
25.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 7 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
26.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
25.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
24.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
19.7%
Will Monday punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:2979% → 84%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
20.8%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
20.0%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
20.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+4
16.9%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
15.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:4318% → 14%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
17.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
16.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+16
15.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 16 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
18.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
18.2%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Gabe Brandner) to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
17.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille PowellSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+6
16.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
14.2%
Will Monday punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 32FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1686% → 86%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
13.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+4
13.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
13.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
13.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 49 Ryan Smith fumbled, recovered by Nwest Warren LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 33END OF GAME
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:1690% → 96%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
9.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
9.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
9.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
8.5%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
6.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
5.6%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
4.3%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:31
Warren Long run for 55 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 14:46
Ross Martin kickoff for 63 yds , Solomon Vault return for 98 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell PAT BLOCKED)
-9.3
FG · Q4 14:25
Ross Martin 38 yd FG GOOD
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com