Try the model
FSU

Florida State 14 at Boston College 0

BC
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2015 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · Everett Golson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:33: Darius Wade run for 9 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST down — FSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q4 12:20: Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards Jon Hilliman fumbled, forced by Terrance Smith, recovered by FlaSt Jalen Ramsey , return for 36 yds, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:20: Roberto Aguayo kickoff for 64 yds , Myles Willis return for 24 yds to the BC 25 — FSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:10: Darius Wade pass incomplete — BC win probability +4.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:06: Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44 — FSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 8:41BC 4th & 6 at BC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:11FSU 4th & 27 at FSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47BC 4th & 5 at FSU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:01BC 4th & 2 at BC 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:59FSU 4th & 7 at BC 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:49BC 4th & 2 at BC 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:39FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:38BC 4th & 7 at BC 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:08FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:34BC 4th & 7 at BC 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−3.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:15BC 4th & 17 at BC 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:05FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−2.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:56BC 4th & 2 at FSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:08FSU 4th & 7 at BC 11, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:07FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:4080% → 79%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
20.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mavin Saunders for no gain to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+26
20.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 26 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
20.7%
Kermit Whitfield run for 15 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
20.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
21.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Corey Martinez) to the BC 30Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+11
21.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 11 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
21.5%
Cook, Dalvin rush for 3 yards to the BOSTCOLL16, PENALTY BOSTCOLL offside 5 yards to the BOSTCOLL14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
21.7%
Freddie Stevenson run for 1 yd to the BC 13Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
21.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 4 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
21.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1022% → 21%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
21.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
21.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 27Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
21.5%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-3
21.4%
Alex Howell punt for 45 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:2279% → 78%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-14
21.7%
Everett Golson sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 11 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Everett Golson) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 24
OWN 11
-3
21.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 27
OWN 8
+1
22.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 53 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 1 yd to the BC 9 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1722% → 23%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
21.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 31Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
21.9%
Thadd Smith run for 8 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+17
22.4%
Darius Wade run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Trey Marshall) to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
22.9%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Brendan NosovitchSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
22.8%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
23.0%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Myles WillisSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
22.6%
Alex Howell punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1678% → 77%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
22.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
22.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
22.4%
Everett Golson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
22.6%
Cason Beatty punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:3123% → 24%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
22.6%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+11
22.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 11 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
23.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 6 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
23.7%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
23.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Sherman Alston for 6 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
24.0%
Darius Wade run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 8
50
+4
24.3%
Darius Wade run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-5
24.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Jim Cashman) to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1477% → 76%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
23.3%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Rudolph, Travis (Johnson, John), PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal block (Bell, Wilson) 6 yards to the FLORIDAST7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+14
23.5%
Everett Golson run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-1
22.7%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+10
23.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 10 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
23.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-4
23.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
24.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
24.5%
Cason Beatty punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:3924% → 24%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
23.5%
Darius Wade run for 16 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
24.0%
Darius Wade sacked by Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 16
OWN 26
0
23.5%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+14
22.4%
Darius Wade run for 14 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
23.6%
Alex Howell punt for 48 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5877% → 79%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
23.2%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
23.4%
Everett Golson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+13
23.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
22.5%
Everett Golson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+28
22.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 28 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
21.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 7 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+3
21.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
21.0%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
20.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for no gain to the BC 28Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+3
20.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
21.1%
Roberto Aguayo 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:4024% → 24%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
23.7%
Myles Willis run for 18 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
25.5%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-4
26.3%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.9%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0525% → 26%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.7%
Outlow, Marcus rush for 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL35, PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding (Williams, Harris) 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
24.5%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+20
24.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 20 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
26.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
25.8%
Sherman Alston run for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
25.8%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Alex Howell punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0176% → 76%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
23.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
23.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
22.8%
Kermit Whitfield run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
22.4%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+4
23.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 49 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 4 yds to the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5525% → 24%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
24.9%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
25.1%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Charlie Callinan, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
24.1%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Bobby SwigertSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+3
23.5%
Alex Howell punt for 57 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2476% → 77%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.7%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
23.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
22.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
23.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2625% → 24%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
25.3%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 11Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
25.3%
Darius Wade run for 4 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
24.3%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Sherman AlstonSimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
23.7%
Alex Howell punt for 56 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 22 Jesus Wilson fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Javien Elliott , return for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:2577% → 75%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
23.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
22.3%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.2%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
22.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
21.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 9 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Jesus Wilson, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
20.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Mario PenderSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-7
22.1%
Everett Golson sacked by Harold Landry and Mehdi Abdesmad for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
24.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 58 yds, downed at the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:3827% → 12%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
26.5%
Darius Wade run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
26.6%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 3Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+9
23.6%
Darius Wade run for 9 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
25.1%
Sherman Alston run for 1 yd to the BC 13Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+15
25.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 15 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
26.1%
Bobby Swigert run for 8 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
27.8%
Sherman Alston run for 6 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
27.7%
Sherman Alston run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 41Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+36
11.7%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards Jon Hilliman fumbled, forced by Terrance Smith, recovered by FlaSt Jalen Ramsey , return for 36 yds, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5511% → 10%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.8%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
10.6%
Darius Wade sacked by Nile Lawrence-Stample for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+1
10.3%
Jeff Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
10.2%
Alex Howell punt for 39 yds, downed at the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0195% → 95%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
5.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-4
4.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 13
OWN 40
-5
4.7%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 18
OWN 35
+13
4.9%
Cason Beatty punt for 54 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 13 yds to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:037% → 5%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
7.2%
Jeff Smith run for 7 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+1
7.2%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+9
5.9%
Myles Willis run for 9 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.5%
Jeff Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
5.2%
Troy Flutie pass complete to Sherman Alston for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 1
50
+2
5.7%
Troy Flutie run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
5.1%
Troy Flutie run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
5.5%
Myles Willis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
5.5%
Troy Flutie pass incomplete to Harrison JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-1
5.1%
Troy Flutie run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21END OF GAME
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:4197% → 99%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
3.2%
Mario Pender run for 14 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.8%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
2.1%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+14
2.0%
Golson, Everett pass incomplete to Rudolph, Travis, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (Yiadom, Isaac) 14 yards to the BOSTCOLL31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
1.9%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the BC 30Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+16
1.9%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the BC 29 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (Matt Milano) to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
1.8%
Mario Pender run for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-1
1.4%
Mario Pender run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 13Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+2
1.4%
Mario Pender run for 2 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 7
OPP 11
0
1.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 12:20
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards Jon Hilliman fumbled, forced by Terrance Smith, recovered by FlaSt Jalen Ramsey , return for 36 yds, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
-16.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:20
Roberto Aguayo kickoff for 64 yds , Myles Willis return for 24 yds to the BC 25
-5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:06
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com