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Notre Dame 34 at Virginia 27

UVA
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:56 · Nicholas Conte punt for 50 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 30 yds to the Virg 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior−11.3Home team on offense−6.8Garbage-time factor−4.0Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:04: Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 42 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +13.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:04: Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +18.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:42: Matt Johns run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK) — UVA win probability +19.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:54: Albert Reid 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UVA win probability +50.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:12: Will Fuller 39 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (DeShone Kizer Pass to Torii Hunter Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +51.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:29ND 4th & 7 at UVA 7, tied
    Close callWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:09ND 4th & 1 at UVA 15, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 28, down 9
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07ND 4th & 8 at UVA 28, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37ND 4th & 1 at UVA 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−1.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:24ND 4th & 9 at ND 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:54UVA 4th & 15 at ND 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42ND 4th & 10 at ND 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:12UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:51UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 6, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−4.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:36ND 4th & 11 at UVA 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−11.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:56UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:30ND 4th & 1 at UVA 49, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:55ND 4th & 13 at ND 46, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−4.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:56UVA 4th & 3 at ND 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−5.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−5.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:15ND 4th & 2 at ND 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:29ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:54UVA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:04UVA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:04ND Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:54ND Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:42UVA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:54UVA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.8%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:12ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.4%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:2583% → 81%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.6%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 15 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
16.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+11
17.1%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
17.2%
Amir Carlisle run for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+8
17.5%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
17.7%
Malik Zaire run for 16 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
17.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
18.0%
C.J. Prosise run for 5 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+5
18.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andrew Brown) to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
18.3%
Malik Zaire run for 3 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
18.5%
C.J. Prosise run for no gain to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.0%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.7%
Durham Smythe 7 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4219% → 19%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
18.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
19.1%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
19.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 41 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1781% → 81%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
19.3%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
19.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 14 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
19.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 16 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
19.5%
Torii Hunter Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+18
19.8%
Malik Zaire run for 18 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
19.4%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
19.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
19.5%
Malik Zaire run for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
19.7%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
19.4%
Justin Yoon 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0320% → 19%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
20.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
19.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
19.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
19.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3080% → 83%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
19.6%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 7 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+25
19.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 25 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
19.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
19.5%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
19.7%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Demetrious NicholsonSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
17.5%
Justin Yoon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0719% → 26%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
18.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
19.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
19.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Michael Mooney) to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+18
18.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 18 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
19.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 38 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
20.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.8%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:0676% → 76%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.1%
Malik Zaire run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
23.5%
C.J. Prosise run for 15 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
23.1%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Amir Carlisle for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+21
23.7%
C.J. Prosise run for 21 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
22.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 8 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
22.1%
Malik Zaire run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
22.5%
Malik Zaire run for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-1
23.7%
C.J. Prosise run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2125% → 39%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.8%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
25.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
23.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 12 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
25.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
25.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
25.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 5 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
38.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 42 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2465% → 61%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.4%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to C.J. ProsiseSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
35.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Amir Carlisle for 6 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
36.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Mike McGlinchey) to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
37.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+11
39.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 58 yds , Maurice Canady returns for 11 yds to the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3937% → 37%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
37.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
37.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:0038% → 41%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
38.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
37.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Andrew Trumbetti) to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
40.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+9
39.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
41.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
43.4%
Johns, Matt pass incomplete to Severin, Canaan, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Luke, Cole) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
44.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Matt Johns) to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+16
42.4%
Albert Reid run for 16 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
45.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
45.7%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-10
45.0%
Johns, Matt pass complete to Severin, Canaan for 11 yards to the NOTREDAME5, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 15
OPP 26
0
43.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
40.7%
Ian Frye 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0259% → 55%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
41.4%
C.J. Prosise run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Demetrious NicholsonSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-3
43.0%
Malik Zaire sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
45.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 62 yds, downed at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2143% → 42%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
43.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
43.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
42.3%
Matt Johns run for no gain to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+8
42.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 8 yds to the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
23.7%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Will Fuller for 59 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5927% → 25%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
26.8%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
27.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for no gain to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-5
26.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-2
25.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+10
24.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 59 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 10 yds to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:0476% → 74%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+39
23.8%
Malik Zaire run for 39 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
21.8%
C.J. Prosise run for 4 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
21.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-5
23.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (Malik Zaire) to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
23.6%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
25.8%
Justin Yoon 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1828% → 26%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
27.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
27.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin, broken up by Max RedfieldSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+30
25.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 50 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 30 yds to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:5578% → 89%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
22.3%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Brown for 18 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
21.1%
Malik Zaire run for 3 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
10.6%
C.J. Prosise run for 24 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0615% → 35%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
14.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
15.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 35 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
17.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
17.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+16
15.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Matt Johns run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0875% → 76%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
25.3%
C.J. Prosise run for 17 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
22.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
22.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 7 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
22.6%
C.J. Prosise run for no gain to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
23.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5129% → 35%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
29.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 25 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
32.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 10 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
34.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-11
35.0%
Matt Johns sacked by KeiVarae Russell for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 49 Matt Johns fumbled, forced by KeiVarae Russell, recovered by NDame Romeo Okwara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3179% → 74%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
20.7%
C.J. Prosise run for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-3
21.9%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Mike Moore and Micah Kiser for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
25.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5728% → 76%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie Hopkins, broken up by Joe SchmidtSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
27.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
28.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+4
26.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
26.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 15 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
31.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+8
25.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 8 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+4
29.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+4
27.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
29.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
32.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-5
28.5%
Johns, Matt pass complete to Reid, Albert for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME25, PENALTY VIRGINIA ineligible downfield on pass (Burbank, Ross) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+34
25.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 34 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.2%
Albert Reid 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:2836% → 91%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Will Fuller for 8 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
63.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will FullerSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
66.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Will Fuller, broken up by Maurice CanadySimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
68.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
67.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Robinson for 11 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
64.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 17 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
60.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Prosise for 1 yd to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
8.6%
Will Fuller 39 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (DeShone Kizer Pass to Torii Hunter Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0411% → 11%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
11.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by KeiVarae RussellSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
10.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 9 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST down lat. to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:12
Will Fuller 39 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (DeShone Kizer Pass to Torii Hunter Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-51.4
TD · Q4 1:54
Albert Reid 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+50.7
TD · Q4 13:42
Matt Johns run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)
+19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com