2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:47 · John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:07: John Wolford pass intercepted for a TD Donnie Simmons return for 41 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +4.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:20: John Wolford run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:08: Mike Weaver 27 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +4.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:01: Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 89 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +19.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:17: Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 53 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +16.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00SYR 4th & 17 at WAKE 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it65.7%−0.115% to convertField goal65.7%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call65.8%average punt
- Q1 4:17SYR 4th & 10 at WAKE 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.4%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call64.7%79% to makePunt63.2%−1.6average punt
- Q2 14:51SYR 4th & 8 at WAKE 22, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snapGo for it61.5%−0.433% to convertField goalTheir call62.0%72% to makePunt58.7%−3.2average punt
- Q2 9:20SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 33, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it59.8%−1.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q2 8:11WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 46, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it41.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 5:06SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 15, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it57.4%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q2 0:08WAKE 4th & 5 at SYR 9, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snapGo for it43.7%−1.036% to convertField goalTheir call44.7%89% to makePunt39.5%−5.2average punt
- Q3 9:19WAKE 4th & 15 at SYR 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snapGo for it45.0%−2.317% to convertField goalTheir call47.3%49% to makePunt45.8%−1.5average punt
- Q3 9:19SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it51.3%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q3 7:25WAKE 4th & 9 at SYR 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snapGo for it51.5%−1.132% to convertField goal49.6%−3.023% to makePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00WAKE 4th & 19 at WAKE 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it27.8%−4.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%average punt
- Q4 11:17WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.4%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q4 10:08SYR 4th & 1 at WAKE 38, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snapGo for it86.9%70% to convertField goal84.4%−2.538% to makePuntTheir call84.5%−2.4average punt
- Q4 4:38WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 6, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q4 1:47SYR 4th & 3 at WAKE 3, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%−0.493% to makePunt92.3%−2.6average punt
- Q4 1:47WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 35, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.6%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 2:31WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.9%97% to makeGo for two37.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:07SYR Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:20WAKE Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.9%97% to makeGo for two36.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:01SYR Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.9%97% to makeGo for two65.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:17SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two88.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 9 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
65.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Josh Parris for 9 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-11
65.7%
Eric Dungey sacked by Thomas Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
65.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2INT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
65.3%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 10 John Wolford fumbled, recovered by WFrst John WolfordSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+11
65.5%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 11 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
65.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 10 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
65.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Isaiah Robinson for 3 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
65.4%
John Wolford pass intercepted Parris Bennett return for no gain to the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3FG6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2866% → 66%
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+12
65.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 12 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4634% → 39%
SYRDrive 5FG8 plays · 48 yds · 2:4062% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6INT TD3 plays · 13 yds · 0:4438% → 33%
WAKEDrive 7TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4733% → 42%
Q2 14:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
67.6%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 9 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
67.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 9 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
66.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+24
67.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 24 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. Brent, broken up by Julian WhighamSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+39
65.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
61.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
61.1%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly Estime, broken up by Zach DancelSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
60.6%
Riley Dixon punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+18
59.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 18 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
58.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 9 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
59.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
WAKEDrive 11FG15 plays · 45 yds · 2:4245% → 50%
Q2 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
55.6%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 8 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
54.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 2 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+11
54.5%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 11 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
53.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 8 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
53.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 7 yds to the Syrac 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
53.7%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 7 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 42 yds · 5:4147% → 49%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
51.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
51.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 23 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
45.9%
John Wolford sacked by Ron Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 36Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+4
48.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 4 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q3 9:19
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-2
50.6%
Riley Dixon punt for 39 yds , Tabari Hines returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
45.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 1 yd to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
46.1%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 10 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
43.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
43.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 8 yds to the WFrst 39 WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
46.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD1 play · 89 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
66.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 89 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 2:0134% → 32%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
66.1%
John Wolford sacked by Luke Arciniega for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
68.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 16 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
64.3%
SYRACUSE Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
60.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to K.J. Brent, broken up by Julian WhighamSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
61.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez Lewis, broken up by Corey WinfieldSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-9
63.8%
John Wolford sacked by Luke Arciniega for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
68.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18TD7 plays · 85 yds · 3:3566% → 87%
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
66.5%
Eric Dungey sacked by Brad Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 29 Eric Dungey fumbled, recovered by Syrac Jordan Fredericks , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+21
64.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Kendall Moore for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+53
86.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 53 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 11:17
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 0:479% → 8%
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
91.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyree Harris for 8 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
91.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Isaiah Robinson, broken up by Wayne MorganSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
92.4%
Alexander Kinal punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22FG10 plays · 34 yds · 2:1694% → 99%
WAKEDrive 23INT7 plays · 45 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
97.4%
John Wolford sacked by Antwan Cordy for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+15
97.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 15 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+13
97.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
97.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 27 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.4%
John Wolford pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Winfield return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24Uncategorized1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:01
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 89 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+19.4
TD · Q4 11:17
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 53 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q2 9:20
John Wolford run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-7.1