2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scorePITT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:07 · Chris Blewitt 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:24: Conor Hundley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +7.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:44: Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +9.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:11: Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +10.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:17: Tra'Von Chapman pass incomplete to Imani Davis — PITT win probability +3.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:51: Darrin Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 14:57PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q1 11:33AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q1 2:55PITT 4th & 3 at AKR 7, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it71.0%46% to convertField goalTheir call70.7%−0.291% to makePunt69.1%−1.9average punt
- Q1 2:55AKR 4th & 16 at AKR 19, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.3%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q2 12:07PITT 4th & 6 at AKR 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snapGo for it69.3%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call69.5%81% to makePunt66.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 10:18PITT 4th & 3 at AKR 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.3%52% to convertField goal68.7%−0.660% to makePunt65.8%−3.5average punt
- Q2 6:19PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it56.7%−2.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%average punt
- Q2 2:48AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 40, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it39.9%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.0%average punt
- Q3 14:53AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it31.3%−1.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.2%average punt
- Q3 12:41PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 46, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it67.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%−1.1average punt
- Q3 8:31AKR 4th & 23 at AKR 7, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it29.9%−4.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.7%average punt
- Q3 4:19AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 38, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it20.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%−2.0average punt
- Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 37, up 10Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:46AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 39, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it19.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%−2.3average punt
- Q4 13:42PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 36, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.9%−1.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%average punt
- Q4 12:04AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it15.2%−1.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q4 2:45AKR 4th & 24 at AKR 10, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 6:24AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.3%97% to makeGo for two40.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.8%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:11PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:51PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
16.3%
Voytik, C. pass complete to Boyd, T. for 6 yards to the UP32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the UP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 13
OWN 40
-1
16.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 14:57
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+3
16.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 3 yds to the Akron 49 PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG14 plays · 59 yds · 7:3182% → 79%
Q1 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
18.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 3 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
18.3%
Voytik, C. pass incomplete to Zeise, E., PENALTY AKRON roughing passer 15 yards to the AKRON28, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
18.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for no gain to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+9
18.2%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-12
18.1%
Chad Voytik sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 12 yards to the Akron 26 Chad Voytik fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+18
18.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 18 yds to the Akron 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-11
22.0%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Jordan Whitehead and Rori Blair for a loss of 11 yards to the Akron 20 AKRON Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-6
20.8%
Zach Paul punt for 50 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5MISSED FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:5678% → 76%
AKRDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
PITTDrive 7DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
23.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tyler Boyd, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
23.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 28
-10
24.3%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Dylan Evans and Jatavis Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1526% → 36%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
26.4%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Imani Davis for 18 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
27.7%
HUNDLEY, Conor rush for 1 yard to the UP43 (Mosley-Smith, K), PENALTY UP offside 5 yards to the UP39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
27.7%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 7 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
AKRDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0535% → 36%
PITTDrive 11TD8 plays · 73 yds · 1:5163% → 77%
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+11
37.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Zach Challingsworth for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
35.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 9 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+14
34.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for 14 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
23.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
27.2%
Zach Paul punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT8 plays · -1 yds · 2:4929% → 27%
PITTDrive 16TD7 plays · 51 yds · 2:3674% → 86%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
26.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 5 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
25.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 25 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
24.4%
Peterman, N. rush for 1 yard to the AKRON13 (MONROE, Darryl;PITTMAN, Se'Von), PENALTY AKRON personal foul 7 yards to the AKRON7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 3
OPP 7
+5
24.4%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 5 yards to the AKRON2, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4417% → 17%
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
16.6%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 8 yds to the Akron 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2283% → 82%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
16.8%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Brock Boxen and Dylan Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 30 Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Pitt Brian O'Neill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+8
17.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
16.3%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+10
17.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 10 yds to the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 14:46
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+26
16.5%
Zach Paul punt for 41 yds AKRON Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 13:42
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
18.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 0:1315% → 14%
PITTDrive 22TD13 plays · 67 yds · 7:0189% → 99%
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
10.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 7 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
10.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for 11 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
9.9%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete to Challingsworth, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the AKRON26, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
9.4%
Hall, D. rush for loss of 2 yards to the AKRON28 (BROWN, Jatavis), PENALTY AKRON personal foul 13 yards to the AKRON13, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-10
9.6%
Hall, D. rush for 7 yards to the AKRON1 (GUISER, Zach), PENALTY UP holding 10 yards to the AKRON18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+13
10.2%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the Akron 10 AKRON Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the Akron 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-15
2.0%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Dennis Briggs for a loss of 15 yards to the Akron 10 Tra'Von Chapman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:11
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 0:44
Nathan Peterman pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q4 2:51
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-8.8