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NCAT

North Carolina A&T 14 at North Carolina 53

UNC
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:18 · Steven Sawicki punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior+35.8Home team on offense+29.9Score differential+21.4Blowout margin+11.1Garbage-time factor+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:47: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Mangili pass to Caleb Samuel for Two-Point Conversion) — NCAT win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:39: Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:34: Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:30: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:56: Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NCAT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NCAT 4th & 2 at NCAT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47NCAT 4th & 18 at UNC 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26NCAT 4th & 10 at UNC 31, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:18UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 26, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:22NCAT 4th & 5 at NCAT 34, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:30UNC 4th & 1 at NCAT 21, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:18NCAT 4th & 4 at NCAT 42, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 20, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:58UNC 4th & 11 at NCAT 31, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:55NCAT 4th & 3 at NCAT 15, down 46
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 29, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:13UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 35, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:47NCAT 4th & 11 at NCAT 20, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NCAT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:47UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39UNC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:34UNC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:30UNC Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:56UNC Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:07UNC Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:32UNC Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:09NCAT Touchdown, down 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:20NCAT Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCATDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.7%
Kwashaun Quick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.7%
Tarik Cohen run for 7 yds to the NCAT 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+1
98.7%
Tarik Cohen run for 1 yd to the NCAT 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Cody Jones punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCAT 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:3699% → 98%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.5%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the NCAT 47Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+15
98.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the NCAT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCAT 26Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCAT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
98.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 11 yds to the NCAT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCAT 6Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCAT 1Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Mangili pass to Caleb Samuel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Kwashaun Quick run for 1 yd to the NCAT 26Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.3%
Tarik Cohen run for 2 yds to the NCAT 28Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
98.3%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Caleb Gabriel for 13 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
98.3%
Tarik Cohen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 40Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+20
98.3%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Tarik Cohen for 20 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Tarik CohenSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.2%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-3
98.3%
Tarik Cohen run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Kwashaun Quick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Cody Jones punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
97.9%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 12 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.0%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCAT 47Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+47
98.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Tarik Cohen run for 4 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.1%
Kwashaun Quick run for 8 yds to the NCAT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
98.1%
Tarik Cohen run for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.0%
Tarik Cohen run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
98.0%
Quick,Kwashaun sideline pass incomplete, QB hurry by Jessie Rogers, PENALTY NC substitution infraction 5 yards to the NC38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
98.0%
Kwashaun Quick run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+52
98.0%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Justin Smith for a loss of 10 yards Justin Smith fumbled, forced by Shakeel Rashad, recovered by NCaro Sam Smiley , return for 52 yds to the NCAT 2 Sam Smiley fumbled, forced by Tarik Cohen, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3598% → 99%
Q1 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.0%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCAT 1Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7INT
14 plays · 44 yds · 3:081% → 1%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Denzel Keyes for 15 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.6%
Kwashaun Quick run for 3 yds to the NCAT 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-5
98.6%
NC A&T Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+13
98.6%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Denzel Keyes for 13 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.5%
Tarik Cohen run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
98.6%
Kwashaun Quick run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+14
98.5%
Kwashaun Quick run for 14 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.5%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Tarik CohenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
98.5%
Kwashaun Quick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
98.6%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Denzel Keyes, broken up by Donnie MilesSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+5
98.7%
Kwashaun Quick pass intercepted Shakeel Rashad return for 5 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
98.8%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
98.8%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
98.8%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Corbin Daly punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCAT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
98.7%
Kwashaun Quick pass intercepted M.J. Stewart return for 15 yds to the NCAT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4099% → 99%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
98.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the NCAT 20Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
98.9%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCAT 19Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+13
98.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Damien Washington for 13 yds to the NCAT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.9%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCAT 4Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.9%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCAT 2Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
Tarik Cohen run for 10 yds to the NCAT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.6%
Lamar Raynard run for 2 yds to the NCAT 31Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
99.6%
Tarik Cohen run for 3 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Lamar Raynard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+9
99.6%
Steven Sawicki punt for 43 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 9 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 6 yds to the NCAT 49Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+19
99.5%
Marquise Williams run for 19 yds to the NCAT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 9 yds to the NCAT 21Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
99.5%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCAT 21Similar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
99.5%
Ty'Son Williams run for 4 yds to the NCAT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
99.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the NCAT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Ty'Son Williams run for 1 yd to the NCAT 1Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
99.8%
Tarik Cohen run for 20 yds to the NCAT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Tarik Cohen run for 2 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
Tarik Cohen run for 4 yds to the NCAT 42Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Tarik Cohen run for no gain to the NCAT 42Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Steven Sawicki punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 10 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.7%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+16
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 16 yds to the NCAT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 24 yds to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.7%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCAT 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
Marquise Williams run for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.8%
Amos Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 18Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Kwashaun Quick run for 2 yds to the NCAT 20Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Caleb GabrielSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Steven Sawicki punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Austin Proehl for 13 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.8%
Marquise Williams run for 13 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Elijah Hood for 5 yds to the NCAT 35 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Damien Washington) to the NCAT 45Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+11
99.8%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCAT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 31Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
99.9%
Nick Weiler 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 2 yds to the NCAT 10Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 5 yds to the NCAT 15Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 3
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
Steven Sawicki punt for 47 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 14 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 6 yds to the NCAT 35Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 35 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:230% → 0%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.9%
Caleb Gabriel run for 17 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Cayson Collins) to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Khris Gardin for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick pass complete to Denzel Keyes for 18 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Denzel Keyes, broken up by Dominquie GreenSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick pass incomplete to Denzel KeyesSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+11
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick run for 11 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Kwashaun Quick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Corbin Daly punt for 38 yds, downed at the NCAT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 22TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 1 yd to the NCAT 34Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
Raynard,Lamar pass incomplete, PENALTY NC roughing passer (Jessie Rogers) 15 yards to the NCAT49, 1ST DOWN NCAT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Amos Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Khris Gardin for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Amos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Lamar Raynard run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
99.9%
Keevon Thompson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+38
99.9%
Lamar Raynard pass complete to Khris Gardin for 38 yds for a TD, (Cody Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 8 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Charles Brunson for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Charles BrunsonSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Corbin Daly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Khris Gardin at the NCAT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
99.9%
Amos Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCAT 18Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-1
100.0%
Lamar Raynard sacked by Robert Dinkins for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 17Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+3
100.0%
Lamar Raynard run for 3 yds to the NCAT 20Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Proehl at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
100.0%
Caleb Henderson run for 18 yds to the NCAT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
100.0%
Caleb Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCAT 29Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
100.0%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the NCAT 26Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+11
99.9%
Charles Brunson run for 11 yds to the NCAT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
100.0%
Charles Brunson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCAT 20Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 15
OPP 20
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:34
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 7:30
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 4:39
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com