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MIA

Miami 44 at Florida Atlantic 20

FAU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2015 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:46: Jay Warren run for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +5.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:44: Greg Joseph 32 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +7.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:32: J. Yearby run for 1 yd for a TD, (M. Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +13.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:43: M. Walton run for 0 yds,M. Walton fumbled, recovered by MiaFl M. Walton,for a TD,M. Walton run for 1 yd, (M. Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +8.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:55: Mark Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 12:00MIA 4th & 1 at FAU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10FAU 4th & 6 at MIA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:41MIA 4th & 4 at FAU 31, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:15MIA 4th & 19 at MIA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:46MIA 4th & 4 at FAU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:12FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:46MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06MIA 4th & 1 at FAU 7, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:44FAU 4th & 4 at MIA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:44FAU 4th & 10 at MIA 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:35MIA 4th & 4 at FAU 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:07FAU 4th & 18 at FAU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:55MIA 4th & 3 at FAU 4, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15MIA 4th & 10 at FAU 30, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:47MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:43FAU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:46FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:32MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:43MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:55MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:1389% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Sunny Odogwu) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
11.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
11.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
12.0%
PENALTY FLAATLANTC roughing passer 15 yards to the MIAMIFL47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIFL.Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
12.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
50
+5
12.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 5 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
12.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+8
12.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
12.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
12.9%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+5
13.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
13.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 11 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
13.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 11 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:2013% → 15%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
13.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jake Stoshak for 7 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
13.3%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
13.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
13.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+46
13.5%
Jay Warren run for 46 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
13.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Jakobi Smith) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
14.0%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
14.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Henry Bussey for 4 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
14.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jake StoshakSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
14.9%
Greg Joseph 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:0185% → 87%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
14.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+42
15.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 42 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
13.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 2:4714% → 18%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
13.9%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
14.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 13 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
13.8%
Jay Warren run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
14.0%
Jay Warren run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
14.1%
Jay Warren run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+17
14.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 17 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
14.3%
Jay Warren run for 33 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
14.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tony ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
14.7%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
17.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Nate Terry) to the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:5883% → 85%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
17.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
16.6%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
16.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 10 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
16.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 11 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
16.9%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
17.1%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
17.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
15.4%
Michael Badgley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:4317% → 26%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
16.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 14 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
16.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 15 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
17.5%
Ralph Leonard run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
17.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
18.2%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
18.3%
Ralph Leonard run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
18.4%
Jason Driskel run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
19.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Greg Howell for 17 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
19.7%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
19.9%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
25.5%
Jay Warren run for 9 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:1077% → 76%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
21.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen Young) to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
21.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Herb Waters, broken up by Sharrod NeasmanSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
21.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Kc McDermott) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+2
22.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-6
22.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Trevon Coley for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
24.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2426% → 26%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
25.9%
PENALTY FLAATLANTC holding (Marsaille, Mikingson) 8 yards to the FLAATLANTC9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 18
OWN 9
-3
25.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+5
26.3%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+22
26.1%
Jay Warren run for 22 yds to the FlAtl 23 Jay Warren fumbled, forced by Jamal Carter, recovered by MiaFl Dallas Crawford , return for 10 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3478% → 78%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
21.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
22.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
22.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Rashawn ScottSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
22.5%
Michael Badgley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1824% → 24%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
25.8%
Marcus Clark run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
24.4%
Jason Driskel sacked by Calvin Heurtelou for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
23.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Corn Elder at the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2476% → 77%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
23.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
22.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Jamal CarterSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
23.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 yds , Jenson Stoshak returns for no gain to the FlAtl 16 Jenson Stoshak fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Deon BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3380% → 78%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
20.3%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
20.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 4 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
20.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+24
21.8%
Michael Badgley 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:0424% → 25%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Greg Howell for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
24.6%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
24.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 15 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
26.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 9 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
27.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
27.5%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+54
25.2%
Greg Joseph 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 5:0625% → 35%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
25.0%
Henry Bussey run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+13
25.6%
Greg Howell run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
26.9%
Greg Howell run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
28.4%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
28.5%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Kelly Parfitt) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
27.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+13
26.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 13 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
29.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
29.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kendrick Norton) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
30.1%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
28.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+12
27.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Greg Howell for 12 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
30.8%
Jason Driskel sacked by Courtel Jenkins for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+4
29.3%
Marcus Clark run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+7
28.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 7 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
35.2%
Greg Joseph 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0068% → 83%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 10 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
30.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
28.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+52
29.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 52 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.8%
J. Yearby run for 1 yd for a TD, (M. Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:1621% → 21%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
20.7%
Greg Howell run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 25 Greg Howell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ryan MayesSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
20.8%
Greg Howell run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 25 Greg Howell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ryan MayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4183% → 84%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
16.8%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
16.8%
Greg Howell run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 25 Greg Howell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ryan Mayes Greg Howell run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 25 Greg Howell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ryan Mayes Greg Howell run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 25 Greg Howell fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ryan Mayes Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
16.8%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
17.4%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
16.9%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
16.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 6 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
17.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
15.6%
Michael Badgley 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1416% → 16%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
15.8%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Rayshawn Jenkins return for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+24
16.1%
Michael Badgley 23 yd FG GOOD Jon Semerene kickoff for 63 yds , Cre'von LeBlanc return for 24 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
15.8%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Rayshawn Jenkins return for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
15.8%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Rayshawn Jenkins return for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0886% → 95%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
14.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
14.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 1 yd to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
14.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
14.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+11
14.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 11 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+11
14.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 11 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
13.6%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+26
13.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 26 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.5%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
M. Walton run for 0 yds,M. Walton fumbled, recovered by MiaFl M. Walton,for a TD,M. Walton run for 1 yd, (M. Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:238% → 6%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
7.6%
Greg Howell run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
7.7%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+9
7.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trent Harris) to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
7.7%
Howell, Greg rush for 17 yards to the FLAATLANTC49, PENALTY FLAATLANTC holding 10 yards to the FLAATLANTC22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
7.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Greg Howell for no gain to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
6.5%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+2
6.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 2 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
5.7%
Dalton Schomp punt for 57 yds, downed at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:0595% → 99%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
5.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
4.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Linder) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+3
5.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 22
OWN 29
+45
4.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 45 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
4.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 15 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
4.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Tyler Grimsley) to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+5
4.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
4.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+7
4.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 7 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
1.3%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:192% → 1%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.7%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
1.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 8 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
1.5%
Marcus Clark run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
1.5%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
1.3%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
1.2%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Artie Burns return for no gain to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23END OF HALF
13 plays · 57 yds · 7:0099% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
1.0%
Trayone Gray run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
0.8%
Trayone Gray run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.8%
Trayone Gray run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
0.7%
Trayone Gray run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
0.7%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
0.7%
Trayone Gray run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
0.6%
Trayone Gray run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-3
0.6%
Trayone Gray run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
0.6%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+13
0.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jerome Washington for 13 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
0.4%
Trayone Gray run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:32
J. Yearby run for 1 yd for a TD, (M. Badgley KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 0:43
M. Walton run for 0 yds,M. Walton fumbled, recovered by MiaFl M. Walton,for a TD,M. Walton run for 1 yd, (M. Badgley KICK)
-8.2
FG · Q3 9:44
Greg Joseph 32 yd FG GOOD
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com