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HOU

Houston 34 at Louisville 31

LOU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:04 · Joshua Appleby punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+22.1Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:35: John Wallace kickoff for 65 yds , Brandon Wilson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +16.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:31: Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +18.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:24: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +29.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:25: Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 29 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +29.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +41.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 26 at LOU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:19HOU 4th & 7 at LOU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:52LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:04HOU 4th & 4 at LOU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:26HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:17HOU 4th & 7 at LOU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:17LOU 4th & 18 at HOU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00HOU 4th & 1 at LOU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−1.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:07HOU 4th & 9 at LOU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:13HOU 4th & 1 at LOU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:51LOU 4th & 5 at HOU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−8.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:56HOU 4th & 3 at LOU 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−16.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:49LOU 4th & 11 at HOU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−7.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−14.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:21HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:19LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:35HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:31LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:24HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:25LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:09HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
80.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-17
80.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Trevon Stewart for a loss of 17 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
80.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3320% → 22%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
79.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 9
50
+8
79.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
79.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
79.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
79.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
78.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 29 yds for a TD, (Logan Piper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0279% → 79%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
78.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 20 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
78.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 9 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
78.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Emonee Spence for 7 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
78.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
77.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
77.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 16 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
78.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
78.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
77.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Chucky Williams) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
77.4%
Demarcus Ayers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+8
77.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
77.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
77.9%
Logan Piper pass incomplete HOUSTON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.1%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Adrian McDonald return for no gain to the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
77.3%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+3
77.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+5
77.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
77.9%
Logan Piper punt for 56 yds, downed at the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
76.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
76.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Ja'Quay SavageSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
76.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
76.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Ja'Quay SavageSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Joshua Appleby punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 4:4924% → 28%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
75.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
75.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+14
75.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kyle Postma for 14 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
75.0%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+7
74.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 7 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
74.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
73.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
73.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
73.4%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+5
74.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (Shaq Wiggins) to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+6
73.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-10
73.7%
WARD Jr., Greg rush for 3 yards to the LOU22 (Young, T.), PENALTY HOU holding (DEW, Ben) 10 yards to the LOU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+11
74.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
72.1%
Kyle Bullard 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.5%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
72.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+8
71.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
71.8%
Joshua Appleby punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
71.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
71.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+15
71.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 15 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.8%
Demarcus Ayers run for 2 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
71.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
72.3%
Logan Piper punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Jaire Alexander returns for no gain to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
69.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
71.4%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 44 Jeremy Smith fumbled, recovered by Houst Jerard CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5132% → 32%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
67.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
67.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
67.0%
FARROW, Kenneth rush up middle for 4 yards to the LOU29 (Young, T.), PENALTY HOU holding (FREEMAN, Colton) 10 yards to the LOU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+6
68.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
68.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+7
69.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 7 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
67.9%
Kyle Bullard 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
68.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+9
68.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+11
69.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
50
0
70.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
50
+10
70.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
70.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 18
OPP 48
0
69.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Emonee SpenceSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
68.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
67.4%
Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, downed at the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0833% → 33%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
67.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-3 Yards) to the Houst 4Similar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
67.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+2
67.3%
Demarcus Ayers run for 2 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
68.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for no gain to the Houst 7Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+24
67.2%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 24 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1670% → 79%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
69.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+8
69.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 8 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
69.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+10
68.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 10 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
78.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 13 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
77.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by Devonte FieldsSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17MISSED FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 4:5325% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
72.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
74.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
72.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
71.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
71.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
71.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
72.1%
Javin Webb run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaq Wiggins) to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
70.6%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
70.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
72.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+5
72.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
70.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
70.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
73.6%
Kyle Bullard 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:0076% → 79%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 6 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
76.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
78.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 7 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
78.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
78.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-10
79.3%
Jackson, L. rush up middle for 5 yards to the HOU25 (STEWART, Trevon), PENALTY LOU holding (Christian, G.) 10 yards to the HOU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+28
78.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 28 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-11
79.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 23 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Houst Trevon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0026% → 29%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
74.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+15
73.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
72.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
71.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
71.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
72.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
70.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+59
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 59 yds to the Houst 24 Chucky Williams fumbled, recovered by Lvile Chucky WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1979% → 83%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy Smith, broken up by William Jackson IIISimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
79.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-1
78.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
82.5%
John Wallace 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+58
65.6%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for 58 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4345% → 51%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
54.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+13
54.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 13 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
54.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
54.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
56.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus Ayers, broken up by Zykiesis CannonSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
49.5%
Kyle Bullard 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:2553% → 79%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
53.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+27
58.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 12 yds to the LOUISVILLE 38 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khalil Williams) to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
61.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
61.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 3 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
58.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
61.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0728% → 64%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
72.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+40
73.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 40 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
65.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
64.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by James BurgessSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
35.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:5946% → 83%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
46.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Ja'Quay SavageSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
45.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 13 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
49.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 6 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
50.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Skylar Lacy) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+27
47.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 27 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
53.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
53.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete, broken up by Steven TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+13
50.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 13 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
53.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-10
53.8%
Bolin, K. sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY LOU holding (Hughley, T.) 10 yards to the HOU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+29
83.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 29 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1629% → 79%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
69.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+36
71.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 36 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
63.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
62.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
64.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
62.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
62.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
21.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28MISSED FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 2:2038% → 22%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Ja'Quay Savage for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
39.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+21
39.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 21 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
47.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Ja'Quay SavageSimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-9
46.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Houst 34 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Geron Christian) to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 19
OPP 44
0
41.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel, broken up by Brandon WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+8
38.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
22.2%
John Wallace 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Steven Taylor Team return for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1093% → 93%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
7.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
6.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
7.2%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:09
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-41.3
TD · Q4 9:24
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-29.2
TD · Q4 6:25
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Micky Crum for 29 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (John Wallace KICK)
+29.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com