2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:50 · Peter Picerelli punt for 40 yds, downed at the GTech 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:46: Patrick Skov run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +1.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:29: Justin Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:02: Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 44 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +3.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:01: Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 17 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) TULANE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — GT win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:58: Clinton Lynch run for 45 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 9:50TULN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q1 4:36TULN 4th & 10 at GT 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call7.0%56% to makePunt6.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:39TULN 4th & 14 at TULN 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q2 7:02GT 4th & 8 at GT 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%average punt
- Q2 1:44TULN 4th & 23 at TULN 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 0:05TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 40, down 21Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%average punt
- Q4 8:25TULN 4th & 10 at GT 10, down 44Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.124% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%88% to makePunt-0.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:27TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 41, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:15GT 4th & 2 at TULN 48, up 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:15GT 4th & 9 at TULN 44, up 55Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.9%−0.127% to makePunt99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:58GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:46GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:02TULN Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.5%97% to makeGo for two6.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:58GT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:38GT Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:51GT Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:15GT Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:27GT Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
GTDrive 2TD6 plays · 35 yds · 3:0095% → 94%
Q1 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
94.5%
Justin Thomas sacked by Jarrod Franklin for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
94.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 20 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4FUMBLE5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
93.9%
Justin Thomas run for 15 yds to the GTech 30 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Isiah Willis) to the GTech 15Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
93.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 9 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+14
93.9%
Broderick Snoddy run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 39 Broderick Snoddy fumbled, recovered by Tulan Tanzel Smart TULANE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Parry Nickerson) to the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5MISSED FG5 plays · 9 yds · 1:157% → 7%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
93.3%
LEE, Tanner pass incomplete to VEAL, Teddy, PENALTY GT pass interference (Milton, C.) 9 yards to the GT30, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD11 plays · 70 yds · 6:5093% → 94%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
93.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 13 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD3 plays · 10 yds · 1:2194% → 97%
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 6 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD8 plays · 91 yds · 3:204% → 7%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
96.5%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 14 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
96.5%
Tanner Lee sacked by KeShun Freeman for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 18Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+20
96.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Trey Scott for 20 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
93.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 44 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 7:02
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
93.4%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 0 yds · 2:047% → 7%
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+12
93.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 12 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-9
93.0%
Tanner Lee sacked by Tyler Marcordes for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 23
OWN 15
0
93.1%
Peter Picerelli punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the Tulan 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD4 plays · 38 yds · 0:3694% → 98%
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+16
93.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Marcus Marshall for 16 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 17 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) TULANE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13DOWNS10 plays · 15 yds · 0:563% → 3%
GTDrive 14TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0298% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15SF5 plays · -21 yds · 1:241% → 0%
Q3 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 26 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter Picerelli for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
TULNDrive 17INT11 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.8%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 15 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
99.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Rob Kelley for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+16
99.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 16 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.7%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted D.J. White return for no gain to the GTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD9 plays · 91 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Matthew Jordan pass complete to TaQuon Marshall for 35 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19FG19 plays · 65 yds · 6:260% → 0%
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
100.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 18 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 5 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 7 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Trey Scott for 9 yds to the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FUMBLE2 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
Josh Rounds run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 20 Josh Rounds fumbled, recovered by GTech Anree Saint-AmourSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
TULNDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Devin Powell pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 12 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Devin Powell pass incomplete to Rickey Preston, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24END OF GAME10 plays · 51 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:01
Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 17 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) TULANE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+3.9
TD · Q2 7:02
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 44 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 10:29
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+2.2