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NCCU

North Carolina Central 0 at Duke 55

DUKE
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+27.3Blowout margin+16.7Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:49: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 24 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — NCCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:15: Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:21: Ross Martin 34 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:28: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NCCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NCCU 4th & 2 at NCCU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:43DUKE 4th & 10 at NCCU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:18NCCU 4th & 14 at NCCU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:43NCCU 4th & 9 at NCCU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 11 at NCCU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:48NCCU 4th & 5 at NCCU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09NCCU 4th & 6 at NCCU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21DUKE 4th & 7 at NCCU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:02NCCU 4th & 6 at NCCU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09NCCU 4th & 6 at NCCU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:28NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:48DUKE 4th & 18 at NCCU 20, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:43NCCU 4th & 4 at DUKE 48, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NCCU 4th & 13 at DUKE 35, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:52DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:48NCCU 4th & 13 at NCCU 25, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:51NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 30, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:49DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:15DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:28DUKE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:29DUKE Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:33DUKE Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.1%
Idreis Augustus run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
99.1%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Khalil Stinson for 6 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Idreis Augustus run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 26 NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.1%
Sirk, T pass incomplete to Barnes, J, PENALTY NCCU offside 5 yards to the DU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+2
99.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
99.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.1%
Shaquille Powell run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
99.1%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the NCCtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for no gain to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Braxton DeaverSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Will Monday punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Idreis Augustus run for no gain to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 11 yds to the NCCtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
98.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
98.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 4 yds to the NCCtl 39Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
98.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 5 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.9%
Malcolm Bell run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
98.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-9
98.9%
Malcolm Bell sacked by Jeremy Cash and A.J. Wolf for a loss of 9 yards to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0399% → 98%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
98.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell BarnesSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+8
98.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
98.5%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 44Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
98.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 4 yds to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
98.5%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
98.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for 24 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.3%
Idreis Augustus run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+8
98.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 47 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:4098% → 98%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
98.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 12 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
98.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 46Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
98.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 11 yds to the NCCtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.3%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-3
98.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaquille Powell for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
98.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Mike JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
97.9%
Will Monday punt for 27 yds, downed at the NCCtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
97.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Khalil Stinson for 6 yds to the NCCtl 15Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+6
97.9%
Malcolm Bell run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
97.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen Wilkes, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.0%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Armani Lanier for 5 yds to the NCCtl 26 NC CENTRAL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
98.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:4798% → 98%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
97.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 23 yds to the NCCtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
97.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 31Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+10
97.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to David Reeves for 10 yds to the NCCtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
97.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
97.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Johnell Barnes, broken up by Ryan SmithSimilar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+8
97.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
97.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 8Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 6Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
97.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Idreis Augustus for 7 yds to the NCCtl 36Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
97.8%
Idreis Augustus run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
97.8%
Malcolm Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
98.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:5098% → 98%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
97.8%
Shaquille Powell run for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
97.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
97.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
97.8%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
97.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Chris Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
97.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-5
97.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+44
97.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Johnell Barnes for 44 yds to the NCCtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
98.0%
Shaquille Powell run for no gain to the NCCtl 19Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
98.0%
Shaquille Powell run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 16Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
97.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Shaquille Powell, broken up by Antonio BrownSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
98.2%
Ross Martin 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:142% → 2%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.0%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Dorrel McClainSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-11
98.0%
BELL,Malcolm pass incomplete to WRIGHT,Deyonta, QB hurry by Edwards, D, PENALTY NCCU illegal block 11 yards to the NCCU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 21
OWN 11
0
98.1%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil Stinson, broken up by Deondre SingletonSimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 21
OWN 11
+15
98.1%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 15 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
98.1%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:3498% → 99%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-14
98.4%
Sirk, T pass incomplete to Barnes, J, PENALTY DU pass interference 14 yards to the DU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 24
OWN 23
+9
98.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+8
98.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+59
98.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 59 yds to the NCCtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:411% → 1%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.9%
Idreis Augustus run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 32Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Idreis AugustusSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+2
98.9%
Idreis Augustus run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+2
98.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 36 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 5 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
99.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
99.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 9 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
99.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.2%
Thomas Sirk run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
99.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
99.2%
Shaquille Powell run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Idreis Augustus run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
99.8%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 7 yds to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 33 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+28
99.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 28 yds to the NCCtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Shaquille Powell run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 15
OPP 17
-3
99.9%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Neil Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 18
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+38
99.9%
Ross Martin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Malcolm Bell run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Nathan Scruggs for 17 yds to the NCCtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.9%
Malcolm Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 7 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 37 yds, downed at the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
99.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 89 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.9%
Malcolm Bell run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 16Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+37
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Khalil Stinson for 37 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
BELL,Malcolm pass incomplete to SMITH,LaVontis (Edwards, E), PENALTY DU pass interference 15 yards to the DU32, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
99.9%
Malcolm Bell sacked by Britton Grier for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil Stinson, broken up by Zach MunizSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Nicodem Pierre run for 2 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Nicodem Pierre for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+56
99.9%
Will Monday punt for 56 yds , Mike Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 23Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+5
100.0%
Quinn Billerman pass complete to Khalil Stinson for 5 yds to the NCCtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Quinn Billerman pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Quinn Billerman pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+13
100.0%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Ryan Smith for 13 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
100.0%
Zach Boden run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 41Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+32
100.0%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Ryan Smith for 32 yds to the NCCtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
100.0%
Zach Boden run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 1 NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
Zach Boden run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Idreis Augustus run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Quinn Billerman pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Quinn Billerman pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 10 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 12 yds to the NCCtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+9
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+8
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Parker Boehme run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 10 yds to the NCCtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
100.0%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+7
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 42Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
Idreis Augustus run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:55
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q3 11:28
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Max McCaffrey for 43 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 9:15
Thomas Sirk run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ross Martin KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com