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OSU

Ohio State 42 at Virginia Tech 24

VT
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 7, 2015 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:30 · A.J. Hughes punt for 36 yds , Ezekiel Elliott returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 38 Ezekiel Elliott fumbled, recovered by VTech Anthony Shegog
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior−20.4Home team on offense−3.4Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:13: Sam Rogers 51 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +5.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Ryan Malleck 1 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +11.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:53: Braxton Miller 54 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:05: Braxton Miller 53 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:26: Cardale Jones 10 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick) — OSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:39VT 4th & 11 at VT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00OSU 4th & 5 at VT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52VT 4th & 9 at VT 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26VT 4th & 6 at OSU 32, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:59OSU 4th & 12 at VT 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05VT 4th & 4 at OSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:48OSU 4th & 5 at VT 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30VT 4th & 5 at VT 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23VT 4th & 4 at OSU 43, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−2.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:35OSU 4th & 5 at OSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50VT 4th & 11 at OSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:03OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:43VT 4th & 5 at VT 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:53VT 4th & 19 at VT 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:44OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:39OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:13VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:53OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:05OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:26OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:14OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:55VT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1417% → 18%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.1%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
17.5%
Michael Brewer sacked by Tyquan Lewis and Gareon Conley for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
17.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ezekiel Elliott at the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5183% → 82%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
17.5%
Cardale Jones run for 6 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
17.7%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+20
18.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.3%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
18.4%
Cardale Jones run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-15
18.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacoby Boren) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 21
50
+16
18.9%
Cardale Jones run for 16 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+10
19.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 10 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
18.0%
Curtis Samuel 24 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3818% → 19%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
18.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
18.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 4 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
18.4%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
18.6%
Michael Brewer sacked by Sam Hubbard for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+6
18.7%
Michael Brewer run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
18.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Eli AppleSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
18.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ezekiel Elliott at the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
16.8%
Ezekiel Elliott 80 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0418% → 18%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
17.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 13 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
17.9%
Sam Rogers run for 16 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
17.8%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
18.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Travon McMillian for 1 yd to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
18.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
17.9%
Joey Slye 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:2383% → 83%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.7%
Cardale Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
16.7%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+11
16.7%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Nick Vannett for 11 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
16.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Luther Maddy) to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+24
16.2%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 24 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
16.2%
Braxton Miller run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+6
16.4%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 6 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-10
16.5%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Billy Price) to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
16.5%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Parris CampbellSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
16.8%
Jack Willoughby 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3217% → 23%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
17.4%
Trey Edmunds run for 7 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-4
17.7%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
17.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
17.6%
Brewer, Michael pass complete to Ford, Isaiah for 31 yards to the OHIOST32, PENALTY VATECH holding (Teller, Wyatt) 10 yards to the VATECH27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+7
17.5%
Brenden Motley run for 7 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+15
17.5%
Travon McMillian run for 15 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
22.5%
Sam Rogers 51 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5879% → 79%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
20.9%
Braxton Miller run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
20.7%
Jones, Cardale rush for 7 yards to the OHIOST45, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Elliott, Ezekiel) 10 yards to the OHIOST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+14
21.8%
Cardale Jones run for 14 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
21.0%
Cardale Jones pass intercepted Desmond Frye return for no gain to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:5523% → 27%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.1%
Brenden Motley run for no gain to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-4
22.8%
Greg Stroman run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+25
22.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 25 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
25.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 1 yd to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
25.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
23.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 3 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
27.1%
Joey Slye 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0775% → 74%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.5%
Cardale Jones run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
25.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Braxton MillerSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
26.3%
Cardale Jones run for 19 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
24.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
24.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis SamuelSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
25.0%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Curtis Samuel, broken up by Deon ClarkeSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
25.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kendall Fuller at the VTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0827% → 26%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
26.9%
J.C. Coleman run for 9 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
27.6%
J.C. Coleman run for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
27.0%
Michael Brewer run for 3 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
26.9%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+1
26.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 1 yd to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+3
26.0%
A.J. Hughes punt for 36 yds , Ezekiel Elliott returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 38 Ezekiel Elliott fumbled, recovered by VTech Anthony ShegogSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:0030% → 41%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
30.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 36 yds to the OhSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.2%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the OhSt 1Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.3%
Ryan Malleck 1 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5762% → 75%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Braxton Miller for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
38.9%
Cardale Jones run for 20 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
25.5%
Braxton Miller 54 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1229% → 31%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.8%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
29.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Trey Edmunds for 8 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
31.5%
Trey Edmunds run for 6 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
32.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 7 yds to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-1
32.5%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
32.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan MalleckSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+41
30.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 38 yds, downed at the OhSt 5 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (3 Yards) to the OhSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2571% → 68%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
29.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 7
0
29.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
30.6%
Braxton Miller run for no gain to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
32.0%
Cameron Johnston punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3934% → 31%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
34.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Travon McMillianSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
34.2%
J.C. Coleman run for 6 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-7
34.6%
Brenden Motley sacked by Tyquan Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+10
30.5%
A.J. Hughes punt for 36 yds , Ezekiel Elliott returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2770% → 70%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
30.1%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
27.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
28.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 5
OWN 33
-1
27.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 32Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
28.5%
Cardale Jones run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-2
27.9%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 35Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 3
OWN 35
-5
28.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 30Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:2829% → 34%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.3%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
30.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.6%
J.C. Coleman run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
30.7%
Motley, Brenden pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky (Conley, Gareon), PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Conley, Gareon) 15 yards to the OHIOST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
34.0%
J.C. Coleman run for 2 yds to the OhSt 47 J.C. Coleman fumbled, recovered by OhSt Eli Apple , return for 1 yd to the OhSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
15.0%
Braxton Miller 53 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5816% → 15%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
16.0%
Trey Edmunds run for 4 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
15.9%
Trey Edmunds run for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+7
15.1%
Brenden Motley run for 7 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
16.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
15.2%
Brenden Motley pass intercepted Tyvis Powell return for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3585% → 97%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+29
14.9%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Johnnie Dixon for 29 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
13.3%
Braxton Miller run for 4 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
12.5%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+15
12.4%
Jones, Cardale pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael (Fuller, Kendall), PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Fuller, Kendall) 15 yards to the VATECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.9%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Braxton MillerSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
12.7%
Cardale Jones pass incomplete to Braxton MillerSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+15
12.9%
Jones, Cardale pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Edmunds, Terrell) 15 yards to the VATECH10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
3.1%
Cardale Jones 10 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:375% → 4%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
5.0%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
4.2%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Trey EdmundsSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
4.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5197% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
2.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
2.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 34Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+40
2.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 40 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
0.2%
Michael Thomas 26 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Jack Willoughby Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
0.3%
Brenden Motley run for 14 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
0.3%
Trey Edmunds run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-6
0.3%
Brenden Motley sacked by Tommy Schutt and Darron Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
0.2%
A.J. Hughes punt for 59 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
0.1%
Curtis Samuel run for 10 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
0.1%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 12 yds to the OhSt 41 Bri'onte Dunn fumbled, recovered by VTech Mook ReynoldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:520% → 2%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.2%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sam Rogers for 12 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.3%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
0.3%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+6
0.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
0.2%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the OhSt 17Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
2.2%
Isaiah Ford 17 Yd pass from Brenden Motley (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
0.6%
Warren Ball run for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
0.6%
Warren Ball run for 6 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
0.6%
Warren Ball run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:05
Braxton Miller 53 Yd Run (Jack Willoughby Kick)
-19
TD · Q3 13:53
Braxton Miller 54 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Jack Willoughby Kick)
-13.3
TD · Q2 0:15
Ryan Malleck 1 Yd pass from Michael Brewer (Joey Slye Kick)
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com