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UVA

Virginia 16 at UCLA 34

UCLA
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:20 · Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds, downed at the Virg 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+27.4Home team on offense+1.4Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:37: Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 30 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:37: Ian Frye 19 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +2.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:02: Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +6.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:37: Myles Jack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:40: Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenny Clark for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK) — UCLA win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 9:14UVA 4th & 3 at UCLA 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:50UVA 4th & 18 at UVA 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20UCLA 4th & 14 at UVA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:43UVA 4th & 2 at UCLA 14, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37UVA 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02UCLA 4th & 6 at UVA 8, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:42UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:48UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:59UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:54UCLA 4th & 21 at UVA 32, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:40UVA 4th & 2 at UCLA 37, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:05UCLA 4th & 3 at UVA 3, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 2:43UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:37UCLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:37UCLA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:40UCLA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:29UVA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:3314% → 16%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
85.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
85.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
85.4%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
85.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+17
85.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 17 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
84.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 19 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
84.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
84.1%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
84.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 5 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
83.8%
Ian Frye 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0384% → 83%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.6%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
83.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 6 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
83.2%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds, downed at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:3617% → 17%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
83.3%
Vincent Croce run for 7 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-14
82.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 17
OWN 15
-5
83.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+3
82.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+8
82.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+21
82.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 56 yds , Randall Goforth returns for 21 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2182% → 84%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
82.4%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
82.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+30
81.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 30 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
82.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 5 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-1
82.4%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+16
81.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 16 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 4 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4717% → 17%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.8%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
82.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Matt Johns) to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
82.9%
Matt Johns sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+7
83.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds , Randall Goforth returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 24 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1883% → 81%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Moore) to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 5
OWN 46
0
82.9%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
82.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Mossi Johnson for 9 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
82.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-4
82.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Mossi Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-10
81.7%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 24
OWN 41
+10
81.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 10 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
81.0%
Matt Mengel punt for 35 yds, downed at the Virg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1719% → 21%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
81.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Jack) to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
81.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 28 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
80.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
79.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+15
79.9%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Fabian Moreau) to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
79.0%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
80.0%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
80.4%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
79.2%
Ian Frye 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:5581% → 86%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
80.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
80.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tim Harris) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
81.2%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
81.9%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
82.0%
Paul Perkins run for 18 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
86.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 30 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
17 plays · 73 yds · 5:5115% → 19%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
84.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
84.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 19 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
83.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-5
84.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Charlie Hopkins) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+7
85.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+18
84.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Jack) to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
83.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
83.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
83.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 5 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
82.5%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
82.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 4 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
80.6%
Ian Frye 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 1:2282% → 86%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
82.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for 26 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
83.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-1
82.9%
Josh Rosen sacked by David Dean for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+17
81.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 17 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 14 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
83.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 4 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
79.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Thomas DuarteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
86.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:1385% → 84%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
85.9%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
86.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
86.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Paul PerkinsSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
85.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-5
84.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Darren Andrews) to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
84.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 33 yds, downed at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4316% → 15%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
84.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+2
84.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+1
84.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
85.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 54 yds , Devin Fuller returns for no gain to the UCLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:0285% → 93%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.9%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
84.9%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+37
84.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 37 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.5%
Paul Perkins run for 9 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
86.7%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
86.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 11 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
88.1%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
88.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
87.4%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
88.4%
Myles Jack run for 6 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Myles Jack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:378% → 9%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
91.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
91.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+13
91.9%
Matt Johns run for 13 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
92.0%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+14
91.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 14 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Adarius Pickett return for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:0495% → 98%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
94.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 14 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
94.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 12 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
94.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 35 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (David Dean) to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.4%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenny Clark for 3 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.6%
Albert Reid run for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
97.8%
Nicholas Conte run for 6 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Charlie HopkinsSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
98.0%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
98.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds, downed at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0199% → 99%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.5%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 9Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
98.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 9 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
98.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
98.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Logan Sweet for 18 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
98.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Payton for 41 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
98.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 5 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
98.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Logan Sweet for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-19
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 21
OPP 32
+50
98.9%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:071% → 1%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.8%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
98.8%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+8
98.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Charlie Hopkins for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.9%
Matt Johns run for 3 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
98.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 10 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 6 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
98.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.2%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+26
99.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 26 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incomplete to Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Bolu Olorunfunmi) to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+39
99.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 39 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.4%
Jerry Neuheisel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.7%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:270% → 2%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
99.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 21 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.7%
Albert Reid run for 7 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+3
99.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan SeverinSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
99.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 16 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Vincent Croce for 6 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
97.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 19 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 7 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
99.0%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
99.1%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:02
Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 yd FG GOOD
+6.1
TD · Q3 7:37
Myles Jack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 7:37
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 30 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com