2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:20 · Isaiah Hill run for 1 yd to the RIsld 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:56: Paul Mroz pass intercepted for a TD Corey Winfield return for 24 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +0.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:47: Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +3.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:53: Cole Murphy 23 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:56: Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 0:00: Connor McHugh punt for 40 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 8URI made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 14:05SYR 4th & 12 at URI 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snapGo for it50.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.2%average punt
- Q1 10:56URI 4th & 15 at URI 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it47.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%average punt
- Q1 8:27SYR 4th & 5 at URI 44, up 7Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.9%41% to convertField goal53.6%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call53.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:53URI 4th & 1 at URI 23, down 7Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it45.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00URI 4th & 10 at URI 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.1%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q2 8:53SYR 4th & 5 at URI 5, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snapGo for it69.7%33% to convertField goalTheir call69.7%−<0.192% to makePunt62.1%−7.7average punt
- Q2 7:56URI 4th & 2 at URI 30, down 24Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it19.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 0:51SYR 4th & 3 at URI 27, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%62% to makePunt86.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 0:00URI 4th & 3 at URI 34, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q3 10:03URI 4th & 11 at URI 45, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 8:35SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 35, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q3 6:32URI 4th & 1 at URI 27, down 38Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 4:58SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 32, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 40, up 40Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:51URI 4th & 10 at URI 25, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 11:18URI 4th & 5 at URI 40, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:20SYR 4th & 1 at URI 29, up 47Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.258% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:56SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.0%97% to makeGo for two51.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:47SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.2%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:56SYR Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:18SYR Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 2INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
75.9%
Terrel Hunt pass intercepted Myles Holmes return for 6 yds to the RIsld 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 3FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
75.7%
Harold Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the RIsld 45 Harold Cooper fumbled, recovered by Syrac Kayton SamuelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 5INT TD3 plays · 2 yds · 1:2425% → 24%
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+24
76.3%
Paul Mroz pass intercepted for a TD Corey Winfield return for 24 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
SYRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
URIDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 6:53
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+1
76.4%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Harold Cooper for 1 yd to the RIsld 12Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+11
76.6%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Khayri Denny for 11 yds to the RIsld 23Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+9
76.7%
Connor McHugh punt for 49 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 9 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9TD4 plays · 63 yds · 2:0077% → 81%
Q1 2:47
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+32
80.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 32 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4720% → 20%
Q1 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.0%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 18 yds to the RIsld 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
79.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the RIsld 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by RIsld , return for 5 yds to the RIsld 30Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 23
OWN 30
+4
79.9%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Khayri Denny for 4 yds to the RIsld 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
80.4%
Connor McHugh punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11FG14 plays · 76 yds · 5:1282% → 87%
Q2 14:05
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
81.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 8 yds to the Syrac 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
81.6%
Jordan Fredericks run for 12 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
82.2%
Eric Dungey run for 5 yds to the SYRACUSE 49 for a 1ST down RHODE ISLAND Penalty, personal foul (Isaiah Hill) to the RIsld 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+16
82.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ben Lewis for 16 yds to the RIsld 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
85.6%
Markey Clarke run for a loss of 1 yard to the RIsld 9 Markey Clarke fumbled, forced by Luke Arciniega, recovered by Syrac Antwan CordySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4588% → 92%
URIDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
90.3%
Connor McHugh punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15MISSED FG14 plays · 49 yds · 5:0292% → 95%
URIDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 7 yds · 0:517% → 2%
SYRDrive 18TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:5799% → 99%
URIDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
SYRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
URIDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 1%
SYRDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
URIDrive 23SF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:490% → 0%
SYRDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Riley Dixon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Justin Caines at the RIsld 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Paul Mroz pass incomplete to Marven Beauvais, broken up by Daivon EllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26TD6 plays · 55 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-4
99.9%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Khayri Denny for 6 yds to the RIsld 45 RHODE ISLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the RIsld 35Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Paul Mroz pass complete to Harold Cooper for 5 yds to the RIsld 40Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+45
99.9%
Connor McHugh punt for 45 yds , Jacob Hill returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28Uncategorized14 plays · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 0:00
Connor McHugh punt for 40 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+5.8
FG · Q2 8:53
Cole Murphy 23 yd FG GOOD
+4.8
TD · Q2 7:56
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+4.3