2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:26 · Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, downed at the BthCk 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 8:22: Michael Badgley field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 08:22, PENALTY BCU roughing the kicker (Darby, J) 5 yards to the BCU14, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY. — BCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:21: Michael Badgley 25 yd FG GOOD — BCU win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:42: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 17 yds for a TD BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:21: Joseph Yearby run for 25 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- PUNT · Q2 1:37: Jonathan Cagle punt for 41 yds , Corn Elder returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00BCU 4th & 20 at BCU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 13:43MIA 4th & 3 at BCU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%53% to convertField goal98.4%−0.149% to makePunt98.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:42MIA 4th & 1 at BCU 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%67% to convertField goal97.5%−0.292% to makePunt97.0%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:42BCU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:24MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q1 1:26BCU 4th & 6 at BCU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 12:21MIA 4th & 5 at BCU 8, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%90% to makePunt96.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:26BCU 4th & 2 at BCU 41, down 10Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:26MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q2 8:15BCU 4th & 4 at BCU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q2 1:37BCU 4th & 12 at BCU 31, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 0:03BCU 4th & 11 at BCU 24, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 9:32MIA 4th & 8 at BCU 43, up 31Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%34% to convertField goal99.7%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:27BCU 4th & 6 at BCU 24, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00BCU 4th & 21 at BCU 40, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:21MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 16, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:35BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 49, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:27BCU 4th & 9 at BCU 26, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 6:42MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:42MIA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:21MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:14MIA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:27MIA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
MIADrive 2TD17 plays · 70 yds · 7:0199% → 98%
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 15 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yds to the BthCk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-2
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 33Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+7
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the BthCk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
98.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 7 yds to the BthCk 19Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+5
98.4%
Michael Badgley field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 08:22, PENALTY BCU roughing the kicker (Darby, J) 5 yards to the BCU14, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
98.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Standish Dobard for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MIADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
BCUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
97.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Dazzie Morris) to the BthCk 36Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-4
97.9%
Michael Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the BthCk 32 Michael Jones fumbled, recovered by BthCk Michael JonesSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+21
97.9%
Jonathan Cagle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Herb Waters at the MIAMIFL 19 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4598% → 98%
BCUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:553% → 3%
MIADrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
97.4%
Quentin Williams sacked by Trent Harris and Ufomba Kamalu for a loss of 6 yards to the BthCk 29Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+35
97.4%
Jonathan Cagle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Herb Waters at the MIAMIFL 19 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, illegal formation (Nicholas Byndloss) to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:1897% → 98%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
97.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 26 yds to the BthCk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+7
97.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 7 yds to the BthCk 34Similar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 17 yds for a TD BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 11INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MIADrive 12TD2 plays · 35 yds · 0:3098% → 99%
BCUDrive 13PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · -2 yds · 0:441% → 0%
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-2
98.8%
Quentin Williams pass complete to Anthony Jordan for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 31Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 12
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Quentin Williams pass incomplete to Jawill Davis, broken up by Jermaine GraceSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+72
99.8%
Jonathan Cagle punt for 41 yds , Corn Elder returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q2 0:03
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.8%
Jonathan Cagle punt for 33 yds , Corn Elder returns for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
99.8%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Deonte Mayo for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 23 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by BthCk Kevin Thompson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 17PUNT6 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+38
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 38 yds to the BthCk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 19TD7 plays · 53 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q3 5:08
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+11
99.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Trayone Gray for 11 yds to the BthCk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Williams, Q rush for loss of 3 yards to the BCU48 (Anthony Moten), PENALTY UM offside defense (D. Jackson) 5 yards to the UM44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 44
-7
99.9%
Quentin Williams sacked by Kendrick Norton for a loss of 7 yards to the BthCk 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-9
99.9%
Quentin Williams sacked by Marques Gayot and Tyriq McCord for a loss of 9 yards to the BthCk 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Javaunie Francis punt for 51 yds , Corn Elder returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:21
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+11
99.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 55 yds , Frank Brown returns for 11 yds to the BthCk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD4 plays · 47 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
100.0%
Trayone Gray run for 9 yds to the BthCk 1 Trayone Gray fumbled, forced by Derrick Johnson, for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Javaunie Francis punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:42
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Rashawn Scott for 17 yds for a TD BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+1.1
PUNT · Q2 1:37
Jonathan Cagle punt for 41 yds , Corn Elder returns for 72 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 2:21
Joseph Yearby run for 25 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+0.8