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TXST

Texas State 16 at Florida State 59

FSU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:42 · Lumi Kaba punt for 44 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 18 yds to the FlaSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+4.2Blowout margin+11.7Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:41: Dalvin Cook run for 28 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:06: Chris Nutall run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +1.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:44: Mario Pender run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:11: Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:11: Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 11:01TXST 4th & 25 at TXST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:41TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28TXST 4th & 8 at FSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30TXST 4th & 7 at FSU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:12FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:03TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:07TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:42TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 40, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:16TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39TXST 4th & 4 at FSU 4, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:18FSU 4th & 2 at TXST 5, up 40
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:10TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 43
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:13TXST 4th & 6 at FSU 42, down 43
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:23FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:41FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:06TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:44FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:11FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:11FSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:30FSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:04FSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:39TXST Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:03FSU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 3:322% → 2%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
98.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
98.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
98.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 3 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-12
98.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by Trey Marshall for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+2
98.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 20
OWN 39
-5
97.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Adrian Bellard) to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 25
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 25
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:2298% → 98%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+6
97.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
97.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
97.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
97.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 18 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.5%
Mario Pender run for 7 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
97.5%
Mario Pender run for 4 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
97.4%
Mario Pender run for 18 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:193% → 3%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.4%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 57 yds , Marquez White returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2497% → 97%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
97.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
97.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 18 Dalvin Cook fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Dalvin CookSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
97.1%
Everett Golson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
97.1%
Cason Beatty punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.9%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
96.8%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-1
96.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:3097% → 98%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
97.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 28 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
97.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Freddie Stevenson for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
97.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 28 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:453% → 3%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.3%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
97.3%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+11
97.2%
Lumi Kaba run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.1%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
97.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+5
97.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
96.9%
Tyler Jones run for 26 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.7%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
96.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
96.6%
James Sherman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1397% → 96%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Mavin SaundersSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mario Pender for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
96.6%
Everett Golson run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
96.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:534% → 3%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.4%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-2
96.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds , Marquez White returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 29 Marquez White fumbled, recovered by TexSt Donta ClantonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:044% → 6%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for 25 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.2%
Chris Nutall run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:2295% → 96%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
95.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Izzo) to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+14
94.8%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 14 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
95.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+36
95.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 36 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
94.9%
Mario Pender run for 3 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.8%
Mario Pender run for 6 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:314% → 4%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.9%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
95.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Chris NutallSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
96.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
95.9%
Chris Nutall run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
95.8%
Chris Nutall run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+6
96.0%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+45
95.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 45 yds , Travis Rudolph returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20 Travis Rudolph fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Mario PenderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1996% → 95%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
95.7%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+4
95.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 4 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+15
95.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
95.5%
Everett Golson sacked by Demetrius Woodard for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+12
95.4%
Mario Pender run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+3
95.2%
Mario Pender run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dila Rosemond at the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:074% → 4%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
95.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 19 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:3495% → 98%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.4%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+13
95.0%
Everett Golson pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 13 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Mario Pender run for no gain to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+21
95.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 21 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
95.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
95.4%
Freddie Stevenson run for 6 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
95.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
95.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Roderick Johnson) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+10
95.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
95.1%
Mario Pender run for 6 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
98.1%
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.3%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
97.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ryan CardenSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
96.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 3:3498% → 100%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
97.5%
Mario Pender run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+22
97.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ja'Vonn Harrison for 22 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.8%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
97.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ermon Lane for 11 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
97.7%
Everett Golson run for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
97.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ermon Lane for 12 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:182% → 1%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
98.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 8 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
Chris Nutall run for 9 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
98.4%
Chris Nutall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
98.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+18
98.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 44 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 18 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Wilson Bell) to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+35
99.4%
Everett Golson pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 35 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Everett Golson pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.6%
Everett Golson sacked by Stephen Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+17
99.6%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mario Pender for 17 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Wilson Bell) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+1
99.6%
Mario Pender run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+10
99.7%
Everett Golson pass complete to Mario Pender for 10 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to Chris NutallSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 45 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Mario Pender run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Mario Pender run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Everett Golson pass complete to Ja'Vonn Harrison for 55 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 4:510% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Chris French for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Connor White run for 10 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Connor White run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Demun Mercer for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Justin Gamble for 4 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 6 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Chris French for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to George Campbell for 12 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.9%
Sean Maguire pass complete to George Campbell for 7 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-3
100.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Da'Vante Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
100.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Johnathan Vickers for 24 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Stephan Johnson run for 9 yds to the TexSt 31 Stephan Johnson fumbled, forced by Javien Elliott, recovered by FlaSt Derwin James , return for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
100.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (George Campbell) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+23
100.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to George Campbell for 23 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Sean Maguire pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
100.0%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 5 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
100.0%
Roberto Aguayo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
100.0%
Connor White run for 11 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to Ryan GarreySimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to Jack Rhoades for 5 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
100.0%
Connor White pass complete to Ryan Garrey for 15 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to Ryan GarreySimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Connor White pass incomplete to Kwamane BowensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:11
Everett Golson pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 5 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+3
TD · Q3 4:11
Everett Golson pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 13 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 9:06
Chris Nutall run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com