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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:08 · Brian Sanders punt for 47 yds, downed at the Clem 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:15: Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:49: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 35 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:58: Tyshon Dye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:35: David Marvin 37 yd FG GOOD — WOF win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:23: Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WOF made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 9:13WOF 4th & 3 at WOF 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.7%average punt
- Q1 4:28WOF 4th & 15 at WOF 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snapGo for it38.8%−1.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q1 2:15CLEM 4th & 4 at WOF 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.7%48% to convertField goal62.4%−0.464% to makePunt58.1%−4.7average punt
- Q1 0:08WOF 4th & 3 at WOF 41, down 14Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it37.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:49WOF 4th & 7 at WOF 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q2 7:56WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.347% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 2:38WOF 4th & 13 at WOF 20, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 11:35WOF 4th & 9 at CLEM 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%75% to makePunt0.6%−2.0average punt
- Q3 9:23CLEM 4th & 1 at WOF 1, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.2%59% to convertField goal94.8%−1.594% to makePunt90.8%−5.4average punt
- Q3 6:13WOF 4th & 12 at WOF 39, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 4:24CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 39, up 32Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:43WOF 4th & 2 at WOF 46, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:16CLEM 4th & 10 at WOF 43, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.6%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 11:56WOF 4th & 6 at WOF 22, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:12WOF 4th & 6 at WOF 29, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:50CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 33, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:13WOF 4th & 6 at WOF 34, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WOF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:07CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.9%97% to makeGo for two51.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:15CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.1%97% to makeGo for two58.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.9%97% to makeGo for two76.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:58CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:16CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00WOF Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:23CLEM Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:46CLEM Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5378% → 78%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
77.4%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete to Peake, Charone, PENALTY WOFFORD pass interference (Armfield, Chris) 15 yards to the WOFFORD49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
77.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the Woffd 42Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
77.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Woffd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
77.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 4 yds to the Woffd 34Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+16
77.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 16 yds to the Woffd 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
77.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the Woffd 11Similar
Q1 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5422% → 22%
Q1 9:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
78.0%
Brian Sanders punt for 34 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 6 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5878% → 82%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
78.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 13 yds to the Woffd 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
78.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 2 yds to the Woffd 45Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
78.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the Woffd 42Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+11
78.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 11 yds to the Woffd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+7
78.7%
Wayne Gallman run for 7 yds to the Woffd 17 for a 1ST down WOFFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dylan Young) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4119% → 19%
Q1 4:28
4TH & 15
OWN 10
-9
81.2%
Brian Sanders punt for 46 yds , Germone Hopper returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FUMBLE9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4182% → 83%
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+32
81.8%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 32 yds to the Woffd 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
82.5%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 4 yds to the Woffd 28Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+11
82.3%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds to the Woffd 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-7
83.4%
Nick Schuessler run for a loss of 7 yards to the Woffd 33 Nick Schuessler fumbled, forced by Lincoln Stewart, recovered by Woffd Michael RoachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3918% → 18%
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
81.8%
Brandon Goodson pass complete to Will Gay for 8 yds to the Woffd 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD7 plays · 88 yds · 1:1983% → 89%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
82.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 5 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+25
82.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 25 yds to the Woffd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 35 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0012% → 10%
Q2 11:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+16
89.6%
Brian Sanders punt for 30 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 16 yds to the Woffd 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5190% → 95%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
90.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the Woffd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
90.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for no gain to the Woffd 31 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Woffd 46Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 25
OPP 46
+10
90.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 10 yds to the Woffd 36Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+25
90.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 25 yds to the Woffd 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:025% → 3%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
95.6%
Nick Colvin run for 2 yds to the Woffd 24 WOFFORD Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+1
96.0%
Will Gay run for 1 yd to the Woffd 25 Will Gay fumbled, recovered by Woffd Will GaySimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Brian Sanders punt for 40 yds , Van Smith returns for no gain to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4096% → 98%
WOFDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · -3 yds · 2:122% → 1%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
98.5%
Jacks, Evan rush for no gain to the WOFFORD23, PENALTY WOFFORD personal foul 11 yards to the WOFFORD12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+3
98.8%
Brian Sanders punt for 30 yds , Hunter Renfrow returns for 3 yds to the Woffd 47 Hunter Renfrow fumbled, recovered by Woffd Colton ClemonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 13END OF HALF11 plays · 53 yds · 2:381% → 3%
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+14
98.9%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Zach Muller for 14 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 14FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:252% → 3%
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+41
98.7%
Will Irwin pass complete to Will Gay for 41 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD7 plays · 56 yds · 1:5298% → 99%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
97.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 12 yds to the Woffd 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 11 yds · 3:101% → 1%
Q3 8:50
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+14
99.0%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Nick Colvin for 14 yds to the Woffd 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 12
OWN 39
-6
98.7%
Brian Sanders punt for 25 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 30 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by Clem Cordrea TankersleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
WOFDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 3:411% → 0%
Q3 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+14
99.4%
Evan Jacks pass complete to Zach Muller for 14 yds to the Woffd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-3
99.8%
Nick Schuessler sacked by Drake Michaelson for a loss of 3 yards to the Woffd 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
99.8%
Brad Butler sacked by Jabril Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the Woffd 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD14 plays · 68 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+21
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Deon Cain for 21 yds to the Woffd 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 4 yds to the Woffd 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Brad Butler pass complete to Wade Francis for a loss of 1 yard to the Woffd 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-10
99.9%
Zac Brooks run for no gain to the Clem 33 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 23Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+10
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Dane Rogers for 10 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Andy Teasdall punt for 37 yds , Will Gay returns for no gain to the Woffd 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:370% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 10 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 2:05
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adrien Dunn for 6 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
100.0%
Andy Teasdall punt for 32 yds, downed at the CLEMSON 41 CLEMSON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 13 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
100.0%
Brad Butler run for no gain to the Clem 29 WOFFORD Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Clem 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:49
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 35 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 9:58
Tyshon Dye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q1 6:15
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+2.8