2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreME score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Richard Wilson run for no gain to the Maine 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:03: Dan Collins pass incomplete — ME win probability +4.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 11 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK) — BC win probability +6.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: Thadd Smith run for 18 yds to the Maine 38 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:51: Tyler Rouse run for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK) — BC win probability +7.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:57: Darius Wade pass incomplete to Sherman Alston — BC win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ME made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:05ME 4th & 11 at BC 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snapGo for it49.2%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call49.4%74% to makePunt48.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 11:05BC 4th & 1 at BC 28, down 3Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snapGo for it50.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:56ME 4th & 16 at ME 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it48.9%−0.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q2 11:30BC 4th & 13 at ME 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snapGo for it48.3%−1.217% to convertField goalTheir call49.5%85% to makePunt45.0%−4.4average punt
- Q2 6:36BC 4th & 2 at ME 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.6%57% to convertField goal52.8%−1.840% to makePunt52.6%−2.0average punt
- Q2 3:03BC 4th & 5 at ME 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snapGo for it54.5%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call54.6%80% to makePunt49.6%−5.0average punt
- Q2 3:03ME 4th & 10 at ME 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snapGo for it44.7%−1.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00BC 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.5%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:09ME 4th & 8 at ME 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it30.3%−1.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q3 8:27BC 4th & 3 at BC 30, up 7Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it71.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:59ME 4th & 15 at ME 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it26.5%−3.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q3 5:53BC 4th & 5 at BC 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snapGo for it73.5%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q3 4:58ME 4th & 19 at ME 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it24.0%−5.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%average punt
- Q4 11:42ME 4th & 13 at ME 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 7:45BC 4th & 19 at ME 49, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 3:02ME 4th & 9 at ME 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 0:26BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:51BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:42BC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEDrive 1FG12 plays · 54 yds · 3:5526% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.9%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 4 yds to the Maine 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
73.9%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Micah Wright, PENALTY BC holding 10 yards to the MAINE39, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
73.9%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jared Osumah for 4 yds to the Maine 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+21
73.9%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jeremy Salmon for 21 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
72.6%
Alex Howell punt for 44 yds , Justin Flores returns for 4 yds to the Maine 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for no gain to the Maine 32Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-6
72.1%
Dan Collins sacked by Mehdi Abdesmad for a loss of 6 yards to the Maine 26Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+5
72.4%
Dan Collins pass complete to Cabrinni Goncalves for 5 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 11
OWN 31
-5
72.5%
Sean Decloux punt 45 yards to the BC24, Alston,S return to the BC34 (Darrius Hart), PENALTY MAINE illegal formation 5 yards to the MAINE26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4FG21 plays · 66 yds · 9:5471% → 69%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
71.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to - 36 for 12 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+5
71.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+10
71.2%
Wade,D pass incomplete to Smith,T, PENALTY MAINE holding 10 yards to the MAINE45, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
71.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 12 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+16
70.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Sherman Alston for 16 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
68.7%
Darius Wade pass complete to Sherman Alston for 1 yd to the Maine 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 5PUNT9 plays · -13 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+14
68.6%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 14 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
67.0%
Dan Collins sacked by Joseph Vitiello and Mehdi Abdesmad for a loss of 7 yards to the Maine 38Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 17
OWN 38
-16
68.7%
Dan Collins rush for 13 yards to the BC49 (Moore,K), PENALTY MAINE personal foul 16 yards to the MAINE22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 33
OWN 22
-5
69.3%
Dan Collins sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 5 yards to the Maine 17Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 38
OWN 17
0
69.8%
James De Martin punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Maine 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6MISSED FG15 plays · 28 yds · 5:1671% → 69%
Q2 6:36
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
69.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 5 yds to the Maine 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
70.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 6 yds to the Maine 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
70.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to David Dudeck for 6 yds to the Maine 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q2 3:03
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
66.1%
James De Martin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD12 plays · 55 yds · 2:1469% → 80%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
69.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jon Hilliman for no gain to the Maine 44Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+16
68.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 16 yds to the Maine 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+17
69.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 17 yds to the Maine 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
80.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 11 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+14
76.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Sherman Alston for 14 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+16
76.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Thadd Smith for 16 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
76.4%
Alex Howell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Justin Flores at the Maine 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
BCDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 8:27
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
77.7%
Alex Howell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Justin Flores at the Maine 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q3 6:59
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
76.9%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jordan Dunn, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+12
78.4%
James De Martin punt for 36 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 12 yds to the BC 45 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
79.7%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Justin Flores at the Maine 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+7
75.3%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 7 yds to the Maine 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
75.8%
Dan Collins sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 9 yards to the Maine 32Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 19
OWN 32
+4
79.1%
James De Martin punt for 62 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 4 yds to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD8 plays · 90 yds · 3:5181% → 94%
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+14
79.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Wolford for 14 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17INT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:009% → 9%
BCDrive 18TD2 plays · 45 yds · 0:1595% → 99%
MEDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
98.7%
Dan Collins pass complete to Micah Wright for 6 yds to the Maine 25Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
98.6%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jared Osumah for 3 yds to the Maine 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-8
98.6%
Dan Collins run for a loss of 8 yards to the Maine 28 Dan Collins fumbled, forced by Harold Landry, recovered by Maine Isaiah BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
99.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
99.1%
MAINE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Maine 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-8
99.1%
Darius Wade sacked by Randy Samuels for a loss of 8 yards to the Maine 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
99.5%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Micah Wright MAINE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+19
99.5%
James De Martin punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Maine 27 , Sherman Alston returns for 19 yds to the Maine 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:51
Tyler Rouse run for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q2 0:26
Darius Wade pass complete to Bobby Swigert for 11 yds for a TD, (Alex Howell KICK)
+6.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:03
Dan Collins pass incomplete
-4.6