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CP

Cal Poly 21 at Arizona State 35

ASU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:47 · Matt Haack punt for 46 yds , Kory Fox returns for no gain to the CPoly 28 Kory Fox fumbled, recovered by CPoly Kory Fox CAL POLY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the CPoly 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+27.5Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:32: Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK) — CP win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Chris Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK) — CP win probability +2.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:47: Chris Brown pass complete to Reagan Enger for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK) — CP win probability +7.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:36: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 10 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +15.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:59: Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10ASU 4th & 3 at CP 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:16CP 4th & 4 at CP 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:22ASU 4th & 1 at CP 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:06CP 4th & 1 at CP 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:06CP 4th & 9 at CP 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:24ASU 4th & 2 at CP 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:24CP 4th & 16 at ASU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:47ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:31CP 4th & 1 at CP 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.0%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:31CP 4th & 4 at CP 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:00CP 4th & 24 at CP 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−7.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:13CP 4th & 6 at ASU 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:44CP 4th & 1 at CP 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:14ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:11ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:32CP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:06ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09CP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:47CP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:36ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:59ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
98.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 15 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.8%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+4
98.8%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+24
98.8%
Matt Haack punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Fletcher at the ARIZONAST 18 ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the CPoly 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
98.6%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 37Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-4
98.6%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 4 yards to the CPoly 33Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
98.6%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 28Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+9
98.6%
Joe Protheroe run for 9 yds to the CPoly 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0198% → 98%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.4%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
98.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 9 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
98.5%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the CPoly 48Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+30
98.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 30 yds to the CPoly 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
98.5%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the CPoly 14Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
98.3%
D.J. Foster 14 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.3%
Chris Brown sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 23Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
98.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 6 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
98.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.1%
D.J. Foster run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
98.1%
D.J. Foster run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.1%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
98.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
98.1%
Mike Bercovici punt for 38 yds, downed at the CPoly 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:182% → 3%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
97.9%
Joe Protheroe run for 8 yds to the CPoly 17Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
97.9%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the CPoly 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
97.9%
Kori Garcia run for 10 yds to the CPoly 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
97.8%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 5 yards to the CPoly 27Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+3
97.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+8
97.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 8 yds to the CPoly 38Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-15
97.9%
Kori Garcia run for no gain to the CPoly 38 CAL POLY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the CPoly 23Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 25
OWN 23
-4
97.9%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the CPoly 19Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 29
OWN 19
+9
97.9%
Kori Garcia run for 9 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 20
OWN 28
-1
97.5%
Chris Brown sacked by Christian Sam for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5297% → 98%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
97.3%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
97.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 20 yds to the CPoly 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+16
97.5%
D.J. Foster run for 16 yds to the CPoly 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.5%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
97.5%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the CPoly 13Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
97.8%
Demario Richard run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 8TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:322% → 4%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.6%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the CPoly 39Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+26
97.6%
Jared Mohamed run for 26 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
97.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
97.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
97.4%
Jared Mohamed run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
97.4%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:1697% → 97%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
96.9%
Mike Bercovici sacked by Burt De Koning for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 17
50
0
96.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 17
50
+16
96.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 16 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
96.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the CPoly 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario Richard, broken up by Joseph Gigantino IIISimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
96.9%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 9 yds to the CPoly 23Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
96.8%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the CPoly 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to D.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the CPoly 17Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+11
96.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 11 yds to the CPoly 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.3%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 6 yds to the CPoly 31Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Chris Brown run for no gain to the CPoly 34Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.0%
Chris Brown run for 5 yds to the CPoly 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.0%
Chris Brown pass incomplete to Dj PelusoSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
97.0%
Jared Mohamed run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 38Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+2
97.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-3
97.1%
Stephen Pyle punt for 47 yds , Jacom Brimhall returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 10 Jacom Brimhall fumbled, forced by Clayton Hibbert, recovered by ArzSt Jacom BrimhallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
96.6%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
96.7%
D.J. Foster run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+9
96.5%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 9 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
96.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+14
96.6%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 14 yds Kody Kohl fumbled, forced by Tu'uta Inoke, recovered by CPoly Kevin GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 12TD
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:224% → 6%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
96.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+8
96.2%
Dj Peluso run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.1%
Jared Mohamed run for no gain to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
96.1%
Jared Mohamed run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+11
96.1%
Kori Garcia run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
96.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
96.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.1%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Chris Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:136% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.4%
Chris Brown run for 8 yds to the CPoly 33 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Christian Sam) to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the CPoly 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
93.9%
Kyle Lewis run for no gain to the CPoly 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+10
94.2%
Chris Brown run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
93.7%
Kyle Lewis run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
93.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+2
93.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
86.0%
Chris Brown pass complete to Reagan Enger for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15INT
14 plays · 66 yds · 3:2390% → 88%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
89.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+16
90.3%
Demario Richard run for 16 yds to the CPoly 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
90.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 7 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+11
90.8%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 11 yds to the CPoly 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
91.1%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+15
91.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Raymond Epps for 15 yds to the CPoly 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
91.1%
D.J. Foster run for 2 yds to the CPoly 9Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
91.1%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Devin Lucien, broken up by Chris FletcherSimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+8
90.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 8 yds to the CPoly 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.4%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the CPoly 1Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
89.3%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 2Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.8%
Mike Bercovici pass intercepted, touchback. Fernando Cabico return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.6%
Chris Brown run for 5 yds to the CPoly 25Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+23
84.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 23 yds to the CPoly 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
82.7%
Chris Brown pass complete to Kyle Lewis for 15 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
81.5%
Chris Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-4
82.8%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 11
OPP 38
-5
84.9%
CAL POLY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
85.3%
Stephen Pyle punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jacom Brimhall at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.7%
Mike Bercovici pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
83.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+2
82.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 2 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
82.1%
Matt Haack punt for 46 yds , Kory Fox returns for no gain to the CPoly 28 Kory Fox fumbled, recovered by CPoly Kory Fox CAL POLY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the CPoly 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
80.1%
Alex Suchesk run for 7 yds to the CPoly 35Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
78.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 37Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
79.0%
Joe Protheroe run for no gain to the CPoly 37Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
80.8%
Chris Brown run for 2 yds to the CPoly 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
78.8%
Kyle Lewis run for 6 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
78.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the CPoly 46Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-1
78.3%
Chris Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 45Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Stephen Pyle punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0879% → 77%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
79.1%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
79.4%
Demario Richard run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
80.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+11
81.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds to the CPoly 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
82.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Devin Lucien for 14 yds to the CPoly 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
83.1%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Gary Chambers for 21 yds to the CPoly 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
83.1%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the CPoly 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
83.1%
Mike Bercovici run for a loss of 3 yards to the CPoly 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.9%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Kody KohlSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 0
OPP 10
+28
77.1%
Zane Gonzalez 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.9%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the CPoly 25Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
71.0%
Chris Brown pass complete to Kyle Lewis for 4 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
71.7%
Chris Brown run for 2 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
71.2%
[NH], PENALTY CP false start (Matt Fisher) 5 yards to the CP26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-7
71.9%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 7 yards to the CPoly 19Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 22
OWN 19
-2
72.5%
Kyle Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 17Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 24
OWN 17
0
73.8%
Chris Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
75.0%
Stephen Pyle punt for 32 yds , Jacom Brimhall returns for no gain to the CPoly 46 Jacom Brimhall fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Jacom BrimhallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:2776% → 92%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
75.9%
D.J. Foster run for 14 yds to the CPoly 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
77.0%
D.J. Foster run for 3 yds to the CPoly 29Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+15
77.0%
[NHSG], Bercovici, Mike pass incomplete to Kohl, Kody, PENALTY CP pass interference (Karlton Dennis) 15 yards to the CP14, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
77.0%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
77.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the CPoly 10Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
92.4%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 10 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:2310% → 13%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the CPoly 26Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
89.7%
Kori Garcia run for 8 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
88.5%
Chris Brown run for 3 yds to the CPoly 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
88.5%
Kori Garcia run for 8 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+7
87.1%
Jared Mohamed run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
86.5%
Jared Mohamed run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
86.5%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-2
87.0%
Dj Peluso run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
87.0%
Stephen Pyle punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:0893% → 99%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
93.3%
D.J. Foster run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+19
93.3%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 19 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
94.0%
Tim White run for 59 yds to the CPoly 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.7%
D.J. Foster run for no gain to the CPoly 4Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.7%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:112% → 2%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Kyle Lewis run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.7%
Chris Brown pass incomplete to Roland Jackson JrSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
97.8%
Chris Brown pass complete to Jordan Hines for 6 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-6
97.7%
Alex Suchesk run for a loss of 6 yards to the CPoly 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 30Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 32Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 14
OPP 32
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:36
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Kody Kohl for 10 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 11:47
Chris Brown pass complete to Reagan Enger for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Pyle KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q4 1:59
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com