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ARIZ

Arizona 44 at Nevada 20

NEV
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:41 · Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ariz 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−16.4Pregame prior−14.3Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:08: Brent Zuzo 28 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +1.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:14: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +7.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 3:56: Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:41: Jamardre Cobb 1 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron PAT failed) — ARIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:56: Nick Wilson 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick) — ARIZ win probability +7.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 12ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08NEV 4th & 11 at ARIZ 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:22ARIZ 4th & 1 at NEV 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 39, down 11
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:31ARIZ 4th & 2 at NEV 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:56NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00NEV 4th & 7 at ARIZ 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:32ARIZ 4th & 21 at ARIZ 14, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:25NEV 4th & 1 at ARIZ 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−3.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:41ARIZ 4th & 1 at NEV 1, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:41NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:57ARIZ 4th & 9 at NEV 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−4.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:57NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 37, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:56NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00ARIZ 4th & 4 at NEV 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:35ARIZ 4th & 9 at NEV 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:35NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:33ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:14NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:56ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:34ARIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:08NEV Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
20.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
20.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
20.6%
TEAM punt for a loss of 13 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3479% → 79%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
21.2%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
20.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 9 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
21.1%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
21.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
21.0%
Alex Boy punt for 50 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:0279% → 80%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
21.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 8 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+19
21.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
50
+20
21.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 20 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
21.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 2 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Kendall Johnson) to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
21.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 5 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
21.2%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Richards, D., PENALTY NEV pass interference (MUHAMMAD, Ahki) 7 yards to the NEV2, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
21.2%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.3%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:2521% → 22%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.6%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
20.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 15 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
20.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 26 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
21.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 3 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+4
21.1%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+18
21.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Evan Faunce for 18 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
21.1%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
21.3%
STEWART, Tyler pass complete to JACKSON, Don for 6 yards to the ARIZ0, clock 05:22, PENALTY NEV illegal formation 5 yards to the ARIZ11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
21.3%
Jerico Richardson pass incomplete to Tyler StewartSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
21.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
22.4%
Brent Zuzo 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:4678% → 78%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
21.8%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
21.5%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+16
21.4%
Nick Wilson run for 16 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
21.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
21.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 2 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+7
21.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
21.8%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 33 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Ariz Anu Solomon , return for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
21.3%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-11
21.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 4 yds to the Nevad 37 NEVADA Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 21
OWN 22
0
21.1%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 21
OWN 22
+17
20.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 17 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
21.2%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:3378% → 78%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
22.1%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Grant, S., PENALTY NEV illegal use of hands (McREYNOLDS, K.) 15 yards to the ARIZ31, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
21.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 5 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
21.5%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
21.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
22.1%
Drew Riggleman punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:2822% → 31%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
21.7%
Don Jackson run for 14 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
21.9%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
22.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
22.4%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
22.3%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 3
50
+4
22.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
22.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
22.8%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
23.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
23.2%
Don Jackson run for 18 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
23.2%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+3
23.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
23.2%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 66 yds · 0:4372% → 74%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
27.8%
Nick Wilson run for 35 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
26.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 25 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
25.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 4 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
25.3%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+2
25.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-2
26.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:1627% → 26%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
26.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jeremy Macauley) to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+2
26.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 2 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-6
26.4%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Jeff Worthy for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 1Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 18
OWN 1
+2
26.1%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 16
OWN 3
+26
25.9%
Alex Boy punt for 63 yds , DaVonte' Neal returns for 26 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:1074% → 81%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
25.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 12 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
25.2%
Nick Wilson run for 23 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
25.2%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.0%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.1%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Derrick TurituriSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Alex Boy punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
20.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
19.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 2 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Samajie Grant for 6 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
19.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+11
19.3%
Nick Wilson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 49 Nick Wilson fumbled, forced by Jordan Dobrich, recovered by Nevad Lenny JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:5622% → 23%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
21.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
22.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
23.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
23.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 3 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
23.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
22.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
23.3%
Brent Zuzo 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 0:2879% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.7%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-15
21.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (Cayman Bundage) to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
22.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 14:32
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
22.5%
Drew Riggleman punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
50
+2
24.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
24.6%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
24.5%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 14:25
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
23.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 42 Don Jackson fumbled, forced by Will Parks, recovered by Nevad Tyler Stewart , return for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:5981% → 86%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
19.2%
Nick Wilson run for 27 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
18.6%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+18
18.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nick Wilson for 18 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
18.5%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.5%
Jared Baker run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.0%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.7%
Jamardre Cobb 1 Yd pass from Anu Solomon (Casey Skowron PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.8%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
14.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
14.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Jarvis McCall Jr.Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
14.4%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:5387% → 88%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
12.6%
Nick Wilson run for 39 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
11.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-7
11.6%
Anu Solomon sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 19
OPP 38
+10
12.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Shun Brown for 10 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
12.5%
Casey Skowron 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
13.4%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
13.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
14.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
13.9%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:3089% → 98%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
11.4%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+41
11.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 41 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
10.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-1
10.0%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
10.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+15
11.5%
Solomon, A. pass incomplete to Phillips, N., PENALTY NEV pass interference (LANE JR., Bryan) 15 yards to the NEV19, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
10.0%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
10.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+9
10.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 9 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.5%
Nick Wilson 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
4.4%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
4.4%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
4.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 5 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
4.6%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
4.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
4.5%
Alex Boy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
2.4%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete, broken up by Asauni RufusSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+39
2.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 39 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
2.1%
Jerrard Randall run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
2.1%
Anu Solomon sacked by Lenny Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+8
2.0%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
2.2%
Anu Solomon punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.6%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Jamar Allah return for no gain to the Ariz 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:3398% → 100%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
1.9%
Jared Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+57
0.5%
Jerrard Randall 57 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:190% → 1%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
0.4%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
0.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 15 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
0.4%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+33
0.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 33 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
0.4%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+11
0.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
0.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.9%
Hasaan Henderson 2 Yd pass from Tyler Stewart (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:3399% → 99%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
1.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 15Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+32
1.4%
Orlando Bradford run for 32 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
1.3%
Orlando Bradford run for 5 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
1.3%
Zach Green run for 5 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
1.2%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
1.2%
Jerrard Randall pass complete to Abraham Mendivil for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
1.2%
Orlando Bradford run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.2%
Orlando Bradford run for no gain to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
1.3%
Orlando Bradford run for 6 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
1.2%
Jerrard Randall run for no gain to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 4
OPP 24
-5
1.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Zach Hemmila) to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
0.7%
Casey Skowron 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Blake Wright run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
0.3%
Blake Wright run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Blake Wright run for no gain to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.3%
Alex Boy punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 14
OWN 18
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:14
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q3 3:56
Nick Wilson 6 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)
-7.7
TD · Q2 3:56
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com