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STAN

Stanford 6 at Northwestern 16

NU
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:09 · Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior−1.1Home team on offense+25.2Garbage-time factor+7.2Score differential+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:52: Jack Mitchell 31 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +1.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:18: Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +8.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:25: Andrew Scanlan pass incomplete to Clayton Thorson — NU win probability +5.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:33: Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40 — NU win probability +4.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:26: Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +5.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10STAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:33STAN 4th & 8 at NU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10NU 4th & 5 at NU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:41STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:52NU 4th & 7 at STAN 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:08NU 4th & 12 at NU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:00STAN 4th & 16 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15NU 4th & 7 at STAN 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:35NU 4th & 15 at STAN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:31STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:46NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:29STAN 4th & 5 at NU 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−1.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:44NU 4th & 6 at NU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:44STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:28NU 4th & 1 at NU 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:42STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:21NU 4th & 2 at STAN 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−15.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:40STAN 4th & 5 at NU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−1.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:26STAN 4th & 4 at NU 20, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−5.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:38NU 4th & 6 at STAN 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−1.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:09STAN 4th & 3 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:18NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:1279% → 76%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
21.4%
Kevin Hogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 23 Kevin Hogan fumbled, recovered by Stanf Kevin HoganSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+9
21.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 9 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+7
21.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
22.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
22.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 12 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
22.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 13 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
22.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
22.9%
Remound Wright run for 10 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
23.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 1 yd to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
23.5%
Francis Owusu run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
23.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
23.9%
Conrad Ukropina 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1024% → 24%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
24.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
24.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
24.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-8
24.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2275% → 74%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
24.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
24.7%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-2
25.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+7
25.8%
Remound Wright run for 7 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Alex Robinson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:3825% → 29%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
25.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
25.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+16
25.6%
Justin Jackson run for 16 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
26.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
27.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+11
26.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
27.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
27.7%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+19
27.7%
Justin Jackson run for 19 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
28.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
28.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
28.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
29.2%
Jack Mitchell 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1872% → 70%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
28.0%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
28.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-3
28.9%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo and Anthony Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
29.8%
Alex Robinson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0230% → 29%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.8%
Solomon Vault run for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
30.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
29.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton ThorsonSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
29.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 39 yds, downed at the Stanf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:0072% → 68%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Rollins StallworthSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
28.7%
Kevin Hogan run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
29.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Remound Wright for 10 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
28.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-6
28.8%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Traveon Henry for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-3
30.5%
Remound Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 16
50
0
31.7%
Alex Robinson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3533% → 45%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
32.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
33.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
34.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
33.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
35.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
35.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
50
+5
35.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
36.6%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
36.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+42
45.2%
Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:2557% → 58%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
42.6%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
41.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38 Christian McCaffrey fumbled, forced by Drew Smith, recovered by Nwest Anthony Walker , return for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:5047% → 46%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
47.2%
Andrew Scanlan pass incomplete to Clayton ThorsonSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
47.1%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+5
45.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brennan Scarlett) to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
47.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+9
46.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 9 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
49.7%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
49.1%
Clayton Thorson run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
48.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
45.9%
Jack Mitchell 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5454% → 51%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
46.3%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Rollins Stallworth for 5 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
45.3%
Kevin Hogan run for no gain to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
47.5%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
48.9%
Alex Robinson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:5349% → 49%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
49.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
49.3%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
48.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan VitaleSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
48.8%
Warren Long run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0451% → 50%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
51.1%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christian Jones) to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+6
51.2%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
51.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
51.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Christian JonesSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
49.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 40 yds, downed at the Stanf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:1048% → 47%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
52.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 27 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
49.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
50.2%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
51.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Remound WrightSimilar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
52.6%
Alex Robinson punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3655% → 60%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.8%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
55.2%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
55.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 8 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
57.3%
Warren Long run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+5
57.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Perez) to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
59.0%
Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5143% → 39%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
57.2%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
55.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
56.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
57.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
59.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
60.3%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+7
61.4%
Alex Robinson punt for 51 yds , Miles Shuler returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:0665% → 68%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
64.5%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 13 Jelani Roberts fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+5
64.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Solomon Thomas) to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-8
65.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 20 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+6
65.3%
Solomon Vault run for 6 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+17
64.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 17 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
67.1%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
68.8%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
68.9%
Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
67.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, downed at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3836% → 32%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
63.8%
Barry Sanders run for 6 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
63.4%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
64.6%
STANFORD Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Austin HooperSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
67.8%
Alex Robinson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:1273% → 83%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
72.7%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
74.4%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
76.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 6 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
77.8%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
78.6%
Warren Long run for 9 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
80.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
80.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+6
80.8%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
82.3%
Justin Jackson run for 21 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
82.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Stanf 4Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
83.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
82.7%
Jack Mitchell 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:4918% → 20%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 13 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.8%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
81.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
81.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
50
0
82.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
50
+9
83.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.6%
Remound Wright run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
84.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
85.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+10
86.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Michael Rector for 10 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.7%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
84.1%
Kevin Hogan pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+6
85.5%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
80.5%
Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3787% → 93%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.3%
Warren Long run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
87.4%
Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
87.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Miles Shuler for 25 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.8%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+7
91.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
91.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 1 yd to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
93.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
93.7%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles ShulerSimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
92.7%
Jack Mitchell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22INT
16 plays · 67 yds · 2:337% → 5%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
92.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 4 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+11
94.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 11 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
94.0%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 2 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-2
94.0%
Kevin Hogan sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
96.1%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 3
50
+16
96.4%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Austin Hooper for 16 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
94.9%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Devon Cajuste for 11 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
94.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Matthew Harris) to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.7%
Kevin Hogan pass complete to Francis Owusu for 5 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.0%
Kevin Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+17
95.3%
Kevin Hogan pass intercepted Kyle Queiro return for 17 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2597% → 97%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:18
Clayton Thorson run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+8.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:25
Andrew Scanlan pass incomplete to Clayton Thorson
+5.5
FG · Q4 7:26
Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOOD
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com