2015 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2015 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:52 · Korey Durkee punt for 31 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 2 yds to the BOISEST 49 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Terrell Johnson) to the BoiSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:12: Jeremy McNichols 7 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa PAT blocked) — BOIS win probability +3.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:26: Jeremy McNichols 1 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick) — BOIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:37: Dante Pettis 76 Yd Punt Return (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +12.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:29: Cameron Van Winkle 28 Yd Field Goal — WASH win probability +10.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36: Timeout WASHINGTON, clock 00:36 — BOIS win probability +12.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
- Q1 13:07BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snapGo for it77.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%average punt
- Q1 9:26WASH 4th & 7 at BOIS 42, tiedClose callPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it24.0%37% to convertField goal23.9%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call23.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:40BOIS 4th & 2 at WASH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.3%57% to convertField goal75.0%−0.266% to makePunt73.9%−1.4average punt
- Q1 0:45WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 46, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q2 8:27BOIS 4th & 1 at WASH 15, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.6%71% to convertField goal82.8%−1.883% to makePunt77.7%−6.9average punt
- Q2 5:54WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 28, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 2:36WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 19, down 13Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.7%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 11:53WASH 4th & 5 at BOIS 45, down 16Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it13.1%41% to convertField goal12.0%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call12.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:07BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 40, up 16Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 6:45WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 44, down 16Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:34BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 5, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it91.1%−1.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q3 3:10WASH 4th & 6 at BOIS 22, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call8.5%72% to makePunt4.6%−3.9average punt
- Q3 1:37BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 28, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%average punt
- Q4 11:52WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 49, down 6Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.4%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%−0.9average punt
- Q4 9:50BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 19, up 6Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%−0.9average punt
- Q4 7:29WASH 4th & 4 at BOIS 10, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snapGo for it22.5%−1.344% to convertField goalTheir call23.8%88% to makePunt10.4%−13.4average punt
- Q4 6:03BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snapGo for it64.6%−10.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.6%average punt
- Q4 5:18WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 38, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%−4.8average punt
- Q4 1:59BOIS 4th & 2 at WASH 46, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it87.0%57% to convertField goal79.4%−7.623% to makePuntTheir call82.4%−4.6average punt
- Q4 0:15WASH 4th & 20 at BOIS 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snapGo for it11.2%−16.910% to convertField goalTheir call28.1%58% to makePunt8.3%−19.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:12BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:26BOIS Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:37WASH Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.2%97% to makeGo for two17.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3874% → 74%
Q1 13:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.8%
Sean Wale punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2826% → 27%
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
73.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 2 yds Dwayne Washington fumbled, forced by Donte Deayon, recovered by Wash Brayden LeniusSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+22
73.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Armand Nance) to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
72.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
73.0%
Korey Durkee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD16 plays · 92 yds · 6:0373% → 76%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Budda BakerSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
72.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 11 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
72.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Holden Huff for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+23
72.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelsey Young for 23 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1426% → 26%
BOISDrive 5TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:0975% → 83%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
74.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.3%
Jake Browning pass intercepted Darian Thompson return for 7 yds to the Wash 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4383% → 82%
WASHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2120% → 18%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
80.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 14Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+13
81.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 13 yds to the Wash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Korey Durkee punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9INT4 plays · 24 yds · 1:4083% → 83%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
82.9%
Thomas Sperbeck pass complete to Holden Huff for 23 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
83.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelsey Young for no gain to the Wash 35Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+1
83.1%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Kevin King return for 1 yd to the Wash 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2318% → 17%
Q2 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
82.9%
Korey Durkee punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Donte Deayon at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG14 plays · 43 yds · 2:1784% → 87%
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+8
85.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 8 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 5 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
86.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelsey Young for 3 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+8
84.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jake Roh for 8 yds to the Wash 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5815% → 14%
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
85.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+5
85.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 5 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+5
85.4%
Browning, Jake pass complete to Coleman, Lavon for 3 yards to the BOISEST45, PENALTY BOISEST offside (Correa, Kamalei) 5 yards to the BOISEST43, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4088% → 89%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
88.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 15 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Budda BakerSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Sean Wale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1413% → 11%
Q3 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
88.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Joshua Perkins for 8 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for no gain to the Wash 34Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+10
89.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 10 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+66
88.6%
Korey Durkee punt for 56 yds for a touchback BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyler Horn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0292% → 92%
WASHDrive 17FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1512% → 11%
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
89.9%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Jaydon Mickens, broken up by Mercy MastonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT TD5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2092% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19FUMBLE8 plays · 43 yds · 2:0482% → 85%
WASHDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1823% → 20%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
77.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 1 yd to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
76.9%
Browning, Jake pass complete to Pettis, Dante for 15 yards to the BOISEST36, PENALTY WASHINGTON illegal touching (Pettis, Dante) 0 yards to the WASHINGTON49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+2
79.8%
Korey Durkee punt for 31 yds , Donte Deayon returns for 2 yds to the BOISEST 49 BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Terrell Johnson) to the BoiSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5685% → 85%
Q4 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+7
85.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 7 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22FG7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1624% → 32%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
75.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
75.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+6
78.4%
Browning, Jake pass incomplete to Renfro, Isaiah, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Moxey, Jonathan) 6 yards to the BOISEST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1575% → 74%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.1%
Ryan Finley sacked by Joe Mathis for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4030% → 30%
BOISDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0176% → 88%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
76.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 15 Jeremy McNichols fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jeremy McNicholsSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+28
79.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 13 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Travis Feeney) to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+16
88.4%
Sean Wale punt for 31 yds, downed at the Wash 15 BOISE ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Terrell Johnson) to the Wash 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26MISSED FG14 plays · 36 yds · 1:3621% → 13%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
78.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 19 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+15
76.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Brayden Lenius for 15 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
69.1%
Jake Browning sacked by Kamalei Correa for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+17
77.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 17 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
69.0%
Browning, Jake pass complete to Mickens, Jaydon for loss of 1 yard to the BOISEST20, PENALTY WASHINGTON face mask (Lenius, Brayden) 10 yards to the BOISEST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 20
OPP 29
-8
72.2%
Jake Browning sacked by Justin Taimatuia for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 28
OPP 37
+8
84.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dwayne Washington for 8 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36
Timeout WASHINGTON, clock 00:36
+12.1
TD · Q3 1:37
Dante Pettis 76 Yd Punt Return (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
-12
FG · Q4 7:29
Cameron Van Winkle 28 Yd Field Goal
-10.6