2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:11: Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK) — EWU win probability +1.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:29: Royce Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:35: Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK) — EWU win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:13: Jabari Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK) — EWU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:35: Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandyn Bangsund KICK) — EWU win probability +1.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EWU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:14EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 39, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q1 6:17EWU 4th & 1 at EWU 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:38EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 41, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 14:22ORE 4th & 1 at EWU 12, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%71% to convertField goal96.7%−0.286% to makePunt96.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 12:15EWU 4th & 2 at ORE 2, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%48% to convertField goal1.9%−0.294% to makePunt1.2%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:44EWU 4th & 1 at ORE 32, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%71% to convertField goal1.7%−0.451% to makePunt1.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 4:32ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 49, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt95.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:16ORE 4th & 6 at EWU 30, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%40% to convertField goal95.9%−<0.156% to makePunt95.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:48EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 33, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q3 13:20EWU 4th & 12 at EWU 23, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q3 10:29ORE 4th & 1 at EWU 1, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%59% to convertField goal95.3%−0.894% to makePunt93.3%−2.8average punt
- Q3 8:48EWU 4th & 7 at EWU 39, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%average punt
- Q3 0:00ORE 4th & 5 at EWU 13, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%85% to makePunt95.1%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8EWU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:43ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick97.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:32ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:21EWU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:23ORE Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:22ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:15EWU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.4%97% to makeGo for two3.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:37ORE Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:11EWU Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:29ORE Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:35EWU Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.1%97% to makeGo for two3.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:31ORE Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:13EWU Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.0%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:47ORE Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:35EWU Touchdown, down 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOREDrive 1TD8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5599% → 98%
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
98.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 3 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
98.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 12 yds to the EWash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+19
98.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Kani Benoit for 19 yds to the EWash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
Kani Benoit run for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:092% → 2%
OREDrive 3TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3698% → 98%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
98.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Byron Marshall for 16 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
98.2%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the EWash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.3%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 6 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:502% → 3%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.2%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 11 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
98.1%
Jordan West pass complete to Nic Sblendorio for 7 yds to the EWash 45Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
98.1%
Jordan West pass complete to Shaq Hill for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.0%
Moore, Jalen rush for 2 yards to the OREGON48, PENALTY OREGON offside (Seisay, Chris) 5 yards to the OREGON45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+33
98.0%
Jordan West pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 33 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Shaq Hill for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD5 plays · 62 yds · 0:4798% → 98%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
97.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 46 yds to the EWash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:212% → 2%
Q1 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
98.0%
Jordan West pass complete to Jalen Moore for 6 yds to the EWash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.0%
Jordan West pass complete to Zach Wimberly for 13 yds to the EWash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
97.9%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 3 yds to the EWash 41Similar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD10 plays · 77 yds · 2:1198% → 99%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
97.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Byron Marshall for 4 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+5
97.9%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 5 yds to the EWash 12Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
98.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 12 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:521% → 3%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
98.6%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 73 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Jordan West pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)Similar
Q2 12:15
—
OWN 35
-5
97.5%
Dascalo, Jordan kickoff 63 yards to the OREGON2, Marshall, Byron return 19 yards to the OREGON21, PENALTY EASTWASH offside 5 yards to the EASTWASH30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD8 plays · 61 yds · 1:3498% → 99%
Q2 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
97.7%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Evan Baylis for 8 yds to the EWash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+39
97.8%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 39 yds to the EWash 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
97.7%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the EWash 6 for a 1ST down EASTERN WASH Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the EWash 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 10INT6 plays · 54 yds · 1:211% → 2%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+23
98.6%
Jordan West pass complete to Shaq Hill for 23 yds to the EWash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
98.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 30 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Jabari Wilson for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+4
98.4%
Jordan West pass intercepted Chris Seisay return for 4 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
98.6%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 24 yds to the Oregn 41 Vernon Adams Jr. fumbled, recovered by EWash Mitch FettigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 12TD9 plays · 41 yds · 2:462% → 4%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Jalen Moore for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-3
98.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Jalen Moore for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+12
98.6%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 12 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+14
98.4%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 14 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.3%
Jordan West pass incomplete to Kendrick Bourne, broken up by DeForest BucknerSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.5%
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13DOWNS12 plays · 30 yds · 3:4497% → 97%
EWUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.4%
Jordan West pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 5 yds to the EWash 35Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
96.3%
Jabari Wilson run for 7 yds to the EWash 42 EASTERN WASH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kendrick Bourne) to the EWash 32Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
96.3%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bralon Addison at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF9 plays · 58 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
96.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+6
96.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Royce Freeman for 6 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
96.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 5 yds to the EWash 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:303% → 3%
Q3 14:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
96.5%
Jordan West sacked by Joe Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the EWash 23Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+6
96.7%
Jordan Dascalo punt for 38 yds , Bralon Addison returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 29 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4197% → 99%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
97.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Byron Marshall for 25 yds to the EWash 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 18TD18 plays · 70 yds · 4:541% → 4%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.7%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, False Start (Cassidy Curtis) to the EWash 20Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+16
98.7%
Jordan West pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 16 yds to the EWash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+20
98.8%
Jordan West run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Christian French) to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
98.8%
Hennessey, Reilly pass incomplete to Grady, Terence, PENALTY OREGON holding (Seisay, Chris) 10 yards to the OREGON31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTWASH.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.6%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Kendrick Bourne for 4 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
98.6%
Hennessey, Reilly pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the OREGON33 (Daniel, T.J.), PENALTY EASTWASH holding 10 yards to the OREGON37, NO PLAY, PENALTY OREGON personal foul 0 yards to the OREGON37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTWASH.Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
96.0%
McNannay, Tyler kickoff 8 yards to the EASTWASH43, on-side kick, recovered by OREGON on EASTWASH43, PENALTY EASTWASH offside 5 yards to the EASTWASH30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:4197% → 99%
EWUDrive 20TD8 plays · 70 yds · 1:531% → 4%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Terence Grady for 9 yds to the EWash 39Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
98.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Nic Sblendorio for 3 yds to the EWash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
99.0%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 37 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
98.8%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Terence Grady for 18 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21FG8 plays · 33 yds · 1:5798% → 99%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Bralon Addison for 9 yds to the EWash 9Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-2
97.5%
Vernon Adams Jr. pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 11Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-2
97.4%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 13 Vernon Adams Jr. fumbled, recovered by Oregn Vernon Adams Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 22INT13 plays · 54 yds · 3:392% → 2%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
97.8%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 13 yds to the EWash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.6%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Malcom Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the EWash 38Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 9 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
97.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Simba Webster for 9 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+10
98.0%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Nic Sblendorio for 10 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.7%
Reilly Hennessey pass incomplete to Kendrick Bourne, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
97.8%
Reilly Hennessey pass intercepted Juwaan Williams return for 17 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
99.0%
Vernon Adams Jr. run for 7 yds to the OREGON 49 for a 1ST down EASTERN WASH Penalty, Personal Foul for Targeting (John Kreifels) to the EWash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 15 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 24TD15 plays · 68 yds · 4:510% → 2%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
99.9%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 16 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.9%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, False Start (Jake Withnell) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.1%
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandyn Bangsund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 58 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:35
Reilly Hennessey pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q3 2:13
Jabari Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q2 6:11
Jordan West pass complete to Cooper Kupp for 16 yds for a TD, (Tyler McNannay KICK)
-1.8