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UTSA

UTSA 32 at Arizona 42

ARIZ
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:16 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:39: Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:14: Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 5:57: Aaron Grubb run for a loss of 4 yards Aaron Grubb fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jamar Allah , return for 22 yds for a TD (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:46: Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:13: Jalen Rhodes run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTSA win probability +5.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:57UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28UTSA 4th & 1 at ARIZ 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:14UTSA 4th & 2 at ARIZ 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39UTSA 4th & 2 at ARIZ 2, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:56UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03ARIZ 4th & 4 at UTSA 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:35UTSA 4th & 4 at ARIZ 16, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:26ARIZ 4th & 6 at UTSA 49, up 8
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06UTSA 4th & 3 at ARIZ 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:59ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:09UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:54ARIZ 4th & 2 at UTSA 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:18ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:36UTSA 4th & 14 at ARIZ 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:27ARIZ 4th & 3 at UTSA 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:06UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 6, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:25ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:07ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:09UTSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:05ARIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39UTSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:14ARIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:36UTSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:46ARIZ Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:13UTSA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1INT TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:123% → 3%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
97.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+23
97.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Lopez return for 23 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:133% → 3%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
97.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
97.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
97.2%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
97.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
97.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
97.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
97.1%
Anu Solomon sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+7
97.0%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
97.0%
Drew Riggleman punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4MISSED FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 6:423% → 4%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
97.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 5
OWN 12
0
97.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+5
97.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
96.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 15 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
96.8%
Blake Bogenschutz run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 28 Blake Bogenschutz fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+19
96.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 19 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
96.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+11
96.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 11 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
96.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-10
96.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+5
96.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Brady Jones for 5 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+7
96.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 7 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+7
96.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
96.2%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
96.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+7
96.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 7 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
96.0%
Daniel Portillo 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:4996% → 97%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
96.1%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
96.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 7 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
96.0%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
96.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 12 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
96.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
96.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+35
95.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 35 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
96.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 14 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
96.0%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.9%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 6 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:114% → 5%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
96.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
96.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Bias for 4 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
96.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+18
96.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 18 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
95.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+11
95.8%
Tyrell Clay run for 11 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
95.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
95.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
95.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.6%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
95.0%
Daniel Portillo 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Nick Wilson run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30 Nick Wilson fumbled, forced by Jason Neill, recovered by TexSA Mauricio SanchezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:035% → 8%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
94.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
94.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
94.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
94.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 15 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4593% → 95%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.3%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+34
93.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 34 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
93.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 21 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
94.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
94.7%
Russell Bellomy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+15
94.7%
Russell Bellomy run for 15 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Russell Bellomy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
94.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:3895% → 95%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
94.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 11 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
95.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
95.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 6 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
95.1%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
95.0%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:116% → 7%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
94.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 16 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
93.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
93.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
93.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 13 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
93.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-2
93.2%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+7
93.9%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 7 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
93.2%
Daniel Portillo 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:5394% → 93%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
93.5%
Jared Baker run for 1 yd to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+13
93.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to David Richards for 13 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.4%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
93.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 11 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
93.8%
Jared Baker run for 4 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
93.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
93.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+19
93.4%
Drew Riggleman punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Derrick Dick at the TexSA 25 ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:377% → 14%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
93.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 28 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
92.1%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
91.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Bias for 5 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
91.7%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+30
92.3%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 30 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.2%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
89.1%
Jared Baker run for 3 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4989% → 88%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.2%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Josh Kern for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
89.0%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.3%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
87.9%
Drew Riggleman punt for 48 yds , Derrick Dick returns for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3712% → 13%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
87.7%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 6 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.3%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 5 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
86.4%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
87.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DaVonte' Neal at the Ariz 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 4:4288% → 93%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
87.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 4 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
87.3%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
87.3%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-7
87.5%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 38 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+13
86.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 13 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
87.6%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
87.8%
Nick Wilson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
88.0%
Nick Wilson run for 16 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
88.3%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+8
88.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Jared Baker for 8 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
88.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 1 yd to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
87.9%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+7
87.1%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Johnny Jackson for 7 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+6
86.0%
Jared Baker run for 6 yds to the TexSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.4%
Anu Solomon run for no gain to the TexSA 4Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:599% → 5%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.8%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 8 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
90.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+22
95.0%
Aaron Grubb run for a loss of 4 yards Aaron Grubb fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jamar Allah , return for 22 yds for a TD (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:095% → 10%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
95.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
95.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 12 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
94.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
94.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+4
95.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+15
95.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
94.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 5 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
93.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+32
89.9%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aron Taylor for 32 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0492% → 91%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.9%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Shun Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
91.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Shun Brown for 1 yd to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.1%
Anu Solomon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.8%
Drew Riggleman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:299% → 9%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.9%
Brady Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
90.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+43
91.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Kenny Bias for 43 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
88.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 25
OPP 38
0
89.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+6
89.8%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 6 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+5
90.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+8
91.2%
Daniel Portillo 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DaVonte' Neal Jonathan Haden return for 8 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4592% → 97%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
92.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
92.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+31
91.7%
Nick Wilson run for 21 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
92.2%
Jared Baker run for 5 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
92.4%
Jared Baker run for 2 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
97.3%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Cayleb Jones for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 4:184% → 10%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.0%
Blake Bogenschutz run for no gain to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
96.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
96.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
96.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+13
96.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to David Morgan II for 13 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
95.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
95.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 5 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
95.4%
Blake Bogenschutz run for 1 yd to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+5
95.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 16Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
90.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25DOWNS
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:2793% → 97%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.0%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
93.2%
Nick Wilson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
93.7%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+31
93.8%
Anu Solomon run for 31 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
94.2%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+3
94.6%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+22
95.0%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 17 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (5 Yards) to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.5%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
96.5%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
96.8%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:183% → 3%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
97.0%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
97.1%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 6
0
97.2%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
97.5%
Blake Bogenschutz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4397% → 97%
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 8Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:14
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q4 7:13
Jalen Rhodes run for 16 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.2
TD · Q2 0:39
Blake Bogenschutz run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com