Try the model
BYU

BYU 48 at Memphis 55

MEM
2014 · Miami Beach Bowl · Dec 22, 2014 · Marlins Park
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:11 · Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the BYU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 111Home team on offense−2.9Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:52: Paul Lasike run for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +28.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:48: Paxton Lynch pass intercepted for a TD Zac Stout return for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +30.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:45: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +39.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Jake Elliott 54 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +30.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +17.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11BYU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 3:41BYU 4th & 21 at BYU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22MEM 4th & 4 at BYU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:53BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:05MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:33BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:44MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30BYU 4th & 1 at MEM 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−3.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:55BYU 4th & 3 at MEM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:11MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:33BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.5
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09MEM 4th & 5 at BYU 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:01BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:03BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:00MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:50BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:35BYU 4th & 5 at MEM 5, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%−1.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−8.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:58MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:25BYU 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:05MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%−4.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:06MEM 4th & 9 at BYU 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−2.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−3.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:34BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−4.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:35MEM 4th & 7 at BYU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−5.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−6.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:45MEM 4th & 4 at BYU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−6.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:54MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:17BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:49MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:16BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:44MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:55BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:11BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:50MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:45MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:52BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:48BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:45MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−6.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:3344% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Christian Stewart run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
55.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 10 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
55.7%
Paul Lasike run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 35 Paul Lasike fumbled, forced by Jackson Dillon, recovered by MemphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2356% → 56%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
55.9%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
55.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
56.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:2544% → 44%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
56.3%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+18
56.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 18 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
56.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
56.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
55.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 47 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2656% → 59%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+19
56.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
56.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 16 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
56.6%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+1
56.7%
Mose Frazier run for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+12
56.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 12 yds Phil Mayhue fumbled, recovered by Memph Phil Mayhue for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:1442% → 45%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
58.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+33
58.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 33 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
57.7%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
57.4%
Paul Lasike run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+7
58.0%
Algernon Brown run for 7 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
55.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 25 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:2356% → 57%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
56.2%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
56.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 11 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.7%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+47
56.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 47 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
57.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the BYU 8 Paxton Lynch fumbled, forced by Manoa Pikula, recovered by BYU Jordan LeslieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2744% → 43%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
56.1%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
56.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+24
56.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Terenn Houk for 24 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
55.7%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
55.9%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-11
56.3%
Christian Stewart sacked by Jackson Dillon for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 21
OWN 20
+5
56.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 40 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 5 yds to the Memph 25 MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1956% → 58%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
56.3%
Keiwone Malone run for 38 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
57.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
57.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 6 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
57.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
57.7%
Jake Elliott 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2243% → 41%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.4%
Mitchell Juergens run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
57.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
57.9%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
58.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 56 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4857% → 56%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
57.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
57.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-5
56.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Charles Harris) to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
56.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Keanu Nelson at the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.7%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Derek Howard return for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1160% → 65%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
59.5%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+7
59.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 7 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+5
59.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 5 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
59.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 9 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 11
-1
59.8%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
59.2%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:0336% → 34%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.1%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
63.9%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
64.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
63.9%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-11
63.6%
Christian Stewart sacked by Jackson Dillon for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
66.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4165% → 64%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
64.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
64.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
64.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 62 yds · 4:4134% → 41%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
66.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
66.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+8
67.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
66.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 9 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
65.4%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+5
66.7%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
65.7%
BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Tejan Koroma) to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
66.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 13 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
66.4%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
66.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
66.4%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.8%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
66.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 6 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
66.6%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+23
58.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 23 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1562% → 62%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+37
61.9%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Alani Fua return for 37 yds to the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1944% → 55%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
56.0%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+4
56.0%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.0%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.3%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:0052% → 50%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
51.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
52.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 7 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
52.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Taylor Fallin) to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
48.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
49.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Roderick Proctor at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1251% → 51%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
49.0%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-1
48.9%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+6
49.9%
Algernon Brown run for 6 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
49.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 56 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
45.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 4:4850% → 67%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
49.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
49.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
50.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
51.6%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+11
48.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 11 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
51.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
52.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
52.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
51.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 11 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
54.0%
Sam Craft run for 7 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+6
54.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
53.9%
BYU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
53.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1938% → 37%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
61.7%
Algernon Brown run for 12 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
61.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
61.7%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
63.1%
BYU Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (-5 Yards) to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-2
63.5%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted Bobby McCain return for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0667% → 65%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
67.0%
Keiwone Malone run for 3 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
67.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+2
66.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
64.5%
Jake Elliott 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5939% → 37%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.9%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.4%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+1
60.8%
Christian Stewart run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+6
62.8%
Scott Arellano punt for 40 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 6 yds to the Memph 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:5764% → 82%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
64.2%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+42
64.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for 42 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
68.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+11
68.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 11 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
68.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
82.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4221% → 18%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
79.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
79.0%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-4
80.1%
Christian Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 28 Christian Stewart fumbled, recovered by BYU Christian StewartSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
82.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:0082% → 82%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
82.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
82.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
81.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
84.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taylor Fallin) to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jarvis CooperSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+1
83.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+12
82.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 12 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-5
82.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
82.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0017% → 14%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
83.9%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-4
83.6%
Christian Stewart run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 30 Christian Stewart fumbled, recovered by BYU Christian StewartSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+14
85.7%
Scott Arellano punt for 53 yds , Joe Craig returns for 14 yds to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
85.2%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Manoa Pikula return for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:5519% → 22%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
80.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 41 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
79.3%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the Memph 5Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.5%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
77.7%
Trevor Samson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 31TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:2626% → 55%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
73.8%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 19 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.1%
Paul Lasike run for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5459% → 55%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
57.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
54.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devon Blackmon at the BYU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 33PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:2748% → 47%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
49.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Adam Hine for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
50
0
47.0%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Devin MahinaSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
50
0
47.8%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 10
50
0
49.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 10
50
0
53.5%
Scott Arellano punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 34INT TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2956% → 26%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
56.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+19
25.7%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted for a TD Zac Stout return for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 35PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:1326% → 21%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
24.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
26.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
23.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 6 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
27.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
27.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
27.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
25.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
21.4%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, downed at the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 36PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5687% → 85%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
13.5%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-5
13.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BYU Christian StewartSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 4
0
13.7%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 12
OWN 4
+9
15.0%
Scott Arellano punt for 38 yds , Joe Craig returns for 9 yds to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 37TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:3029% → 59%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
29.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
25.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
22.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+19
17.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 19 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
26.9%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
26.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+4
23.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+5
58.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 38END OF GAME
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:3551% → 53%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
49.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 12 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
48.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
49.0%
Christian Stewart run for 8 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+8
47.3%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 39FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the Memph 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-5
43.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
46.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
29.5%
Trevor Samson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 40FG
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0041% → 55%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
41.3%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 34 Paxton Lynch fumbled, forced by Bronson Kaufusi, recovered by MemphSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 34
-3
31.1%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 37Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 22
OPP 37
0
26.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 22
OPP 37
+54
54.5%
Jake Elliott 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 41TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone MaloneSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
64.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 10 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
64.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the BYU 11Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
82.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 11 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 42Uncategorized
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
80.4%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
81.3%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted DaShaughn Terry return for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+39.5
FG · OT 0:00
Jake Elliott 54 yd FG GOOD
+30.5
TD · Q4 7:48
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted for a TD Zac Stout return for 19 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-30.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com