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ARK

Arkansas 31 at Texas 7

TEX
2014 · AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl · Dec 29, 2014 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFUMBLETDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:59 · Michael Davidson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−9.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Demetrius Wilson 36 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +4.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 8:13: Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 3 yards, Johnathan Gray fumbled, recovered by Ark Taiwan Johnson for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +7.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:07: TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 49 — TEX win probability +4.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:59: Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick) — TEX win probability +8.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:24: Keon Hatcher 5 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +10.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:07ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32ARK 4th & 8 at TEX 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:09TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21ARK 4th & 5 at TEX 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:07ARK 4th & 6 at TEX 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:37TEX 4th & 17 at TEX 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23ARK 4th & 2 at midfield, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:20TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:11ARK 4th & 1 at TEX 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:11TEX 4th & 14 at TEX 19, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:48ARK 4th & 7 at TEX 41, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:15ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:59TEX Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:24ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:41ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4162% → 62%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
37.6%
Jonathan Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+17
38.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.0%
Keon Hatcher run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
38.1%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
38.3%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
38.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 48 yds, downed at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:1439% → 39%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
38.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+11
38.5%
Malcolm Brown run for 11 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
38.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
38.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
39.2%
Malcolm Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
39.3%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-9
39.3%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Darius Philon for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
39.0%
Michael Davidson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:5261% → 60%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
38.9%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
39.1%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
39.0%
Brandon Allen run for 2 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
39.4%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Cody Hollister, broken up by Duke ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+8
39.6%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 12 yds to the Texas 25, fumbled, forced by Mykkele Thompson, recovered by Hunter Henry, Hunter Henry for 8 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
39.1%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
39.2%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
39.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
39.7%
Adam McFain 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2339% → 39%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.4%
Johnathan Gray run for 9 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
40.6%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
41.1%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
41.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Marcus JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-10
40.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
38.9%
Michael Davidson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:3660% → 66%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
40.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 15 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
39.8%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
39.7%
Jonathan Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
38.8%
Alex Collins run for 8 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Hicks) to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
38.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+36
33.9%
Demetrius Wilson 36 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5635% → 33%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
34.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
33.8%
Malcolm Brown run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
33.5%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John HarrisSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Michael Davidson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:3666% → 67%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
34.5%
Alex Collins run for 7 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
34.0%
Alex Collins run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
34.0%
Brandon Allen run for 1 yd to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
33.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+9
32.8%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.6%
Alex Collins run for 1 yd to the Texas 47Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
32.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
32.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Quandre DiggsSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
32.8%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 39 yds, downed at the Texas 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FUMBLE TD
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
25.5%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 3 yards, Johnathan Gray fumbled, recovered by Ark Taiwan Johnson for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0827% → 33%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
27.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
26.7%
Johnathan Gray run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+6
26.1%
Malcolm Brown run for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
25.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 8 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.3%
Johnathan Gray run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
26.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for 11 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
26.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Daje Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+13
24.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 13 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
32.9%
Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:1471% → 84%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
29.0%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
28.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Hunter Henry for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
50
0
28.3%
Brandon Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
50
+6
28.4%
Jonathan Williams run for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+10
28.0%
Brandon Allen run for 10 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
26.7%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 24 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
26.6%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter Henry, broken up by Dylan HainesSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
26.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.3%
Keon Hatcher 5 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-19
20.8%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Trey Flowers for a loss of 19 yards to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1419% → 19%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
19.4%
Malcolm Brown run for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
19.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje Johnson, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-9
18.7%
Tyrone Swoopes sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. and Reeve Koehler for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 18
OWN 15
+27
18.5%
Michael Davidson punt for 47 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 27 yds to the Texas 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3284% → 85%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
16.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
15.7%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
15.3%
Allen, Brandon pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TEXAS43 (Hughes, Naashon), PENALTY TEXAS face mask (Hughes, Naashon) 5 yards to the TEXAS28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
14.7%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
14.9%
Alex Collins run for 10 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
14.1%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
14.0%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
13.9%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
15.5%
Adam McFain 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:1716% → 16%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
16.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Malcolm Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 13 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Taylor Doyle) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
15.8%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
15.7%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
15.6%
Michael Davidson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0486% → 87%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
14.1%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+9
13.8%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
13.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 2
50
+4
13.5%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 41 yds , Jaxon Shipley returns for 4 yds to the Texas 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2814% → 14%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
14.4%
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
14.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Daje JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
14.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Geoff SwaimSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
14.0%
Michael Davidson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
16 plays · 57 yds · 8:3188% → 99%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
11.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+16
11.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Demetrius Wilson for 16 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
10.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
9.9%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
8.5%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
8.1%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-6
7.8%
Brandon Allen sacked by Steve Edmond for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+15
8.2%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 15 yds to the Texas 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
6.9%
Brandon Allen run for 6 yds to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-5
6.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brey Cook) to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
5.1%
Jonathan Williams run for 8 yds to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
5.1%
Brandon Allen run for no gain to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+5
3.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Jonathan Williams 1 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:093% → 2%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
2.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 14
OWN 19
0
2.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for no gain John Harris fumbled, forced by Brooks Ellis, recovered by Texas John HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Geoff SwaimSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
2.2%
Michael Davidson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:0598% → 99%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
1.6%
Alex Collins run for 9 yds to the TEXAS 46 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Arinze) to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 11
OWN 44
+4
1.5%
Alex Collins run for 4 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
1.4%
Alex Collins run for 6 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
1.3%
Jonathan Williams run for 2 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.2%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.9%
Alex Collins run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Brandon Allen pass incomplete to Hunter HenrySimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
0.9%
Sam Irwin-Hill punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Shipley at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
1.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Harris for 15 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.1%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jaxon Shipley for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
1.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
1.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 5 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
1.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
1.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Marcus Hutchins) to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+5
1.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+46
0.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for 46 yds to the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5499% → 100%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.6%
Jonathan Williams run for no gain to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.6%
Jonathan Williams run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+25
0.5%
Jonathan Williams run for 25 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yard to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yard to the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Keon Hatcher 5 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
-10.3
TD · Q2 3:59
Tyrone Swoopes 9 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)
+8.1
FUMBLE · Q2 8:13
Johnathan Gray run for a loss of 3 yards, Johnathan Gray fumbled, recovered by Ark Taiwan Johnson for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com