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ILL

Illinois 18 at Louisiana Tech 35

LT
2014 · Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl · Dec 26, 2014 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:02 · Logan McPherson punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaTch 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense+9.3Pregame prior+6.6Score differential+4.0Garbage-time factor+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 25 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski PAT MISSED) — ILL win probability +6.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 7:20: Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 69 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +11.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Donovonn Young run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ILL win probability +16.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:15: Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +16.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:43: Blake Martin run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:09ILL 4th & 25 at ILL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43LT 4th & 7 at ILL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46ILL 4th & 9 at LT 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28ILL 4th & 6 at LT 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:45LT 4th & 3 at LT 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:57LT 4th & 10 at LT 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:49ILL 4th & 10 at LT 35, down 12
    Close callPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:02LT 4th & 4 at LT 15, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:07ILL 4th & 12 at LT 28, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21LT 4th & 3 at LT 38, up 12
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:50ILL 4th & 4 at LT 46, down 12
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:21LT 4th & 16 at LT 14, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:00LT 4th & 9 at ILL 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:01ILL 4th & 11 at LT 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−9.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:19ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:15ILL 4th & 6 at LT 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21ILL 4th & 14 at LT 16, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:29LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:15ILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:20LT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:04ILL Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:15LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:43LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -15 yds · 2:4638% → 38%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
62.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-16
62.1%
O'Toole, Reilly pass complete to Davis, Jon for 12 yards to the ILLINOIS48, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Davis, Jon) 16 yards to the ILLINOIS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 25
OWN 20
-5
62.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (Reilly O'Toole) to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 30
OWN 15
+14
62.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 14 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-9
62.2%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 25
OWN 20
0
62.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 38 yds , Trent Taylor returns for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1262% → 62%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
62.3%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
62.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for 3 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
62.5%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
62.4%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
62.1%
Logan McPherson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4538% → 38%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 7 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
61.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Michael Heitz) to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
62.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
62.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (Justin DuVernois) to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+11
62.2%
Justin DuVernois punt for 50 yds , Paul Turner returns for 11 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:2062% → 65%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
61.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for 28 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.7%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Paul TurnerSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
62.7%
Cody Sokol pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
62.4%
Cody Sokol run for 9 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+10
62.1%
Sokol, Cody pass incomplete to Gaston, Josh, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Mosely, Darius) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
65.3%
Jarred Craft run for 16 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2736% → 37%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
64.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+50
64.7%
Mike Dudek run for 50 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
63.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+11
63.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-11
63.7%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 11 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+10
64.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.5%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Jon DavisSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
62.9%
Taylor Zalewski 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
67.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 80 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:5233% → 31%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for no gain to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
67.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 21 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
66.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Justin Hardee for 10 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
65.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Donovonn Young for 2 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-10
66.1%
O'Toole, Reilly rush for 2 yards to the LATECH24, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Schmidt, Austin) 10 yards to the LATECH36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+5
67.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 5 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+7
68.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
68.7%
Taylor Zalewski 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3770% → 69%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 7 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
70.0%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
69.4%
Logan McPherson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2231% → 39%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
69.1%
Josh Ferguson run for 17 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
68.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 17 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
67.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 6 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
60.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 25 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:0664% → 64%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.4%
Carlos Henderson run for no gain to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
64.6%
Sokol, Cody pass incomplete to Craft, Jarred (TEAM), PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Thomas III, Earnest) 2 yards to the LATECH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.9%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
65.7%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Hunter LeeSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
64.4%
Logan McPherson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by V'Angelo Bentley at the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11INT TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3036% → 27%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
64.0%
Josh Ferguson run for 16 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
62.4%
Donovonn Young run for 8 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-3
62.1%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+69
73.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 69 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 2:1526% → 25%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
73.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+17
74.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 17 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
74.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 18 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.8%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
73.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 12 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
72.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
73.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
74.6%
Justin DuVernois punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3975% → 76%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
75.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for no gain to the LaTch 9Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
75.3%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+4
75.2%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
76.3%
Logan McPherson punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:3023% → 21%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
76.7%
Reilly O'Toole run for 11 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
76.6%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
76.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 11 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
75.4%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-9
77.5%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Kentrell Brice for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 39 ILLINOIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Reilly O'Toole) to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 23
OPP 39
+11
79.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
79.5%
David Reisner 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:5081% → 81%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
81.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 17
OWN 21
-5
81.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (David Mahaffey) to the LaTch 16Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 22
OWN 16
+1
81.0%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 17
-2
81.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2980% → 80%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+26
80.0%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 26 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
80.5%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 3 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
80.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
81.2%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Kenneth DixonSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Logan McPherson punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2023% → 21%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
77.5%
Jon Davis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
50
+4
77.5%
Reilly O'Toole run for 4 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
78.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
79.0%
Justin DuVernois punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
82.1%
Cody Sokol sacked by Rob Bain for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 11Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
81.7%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Kenneth Dixon for 3 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
81.3%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Robinson) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
80.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 58 yds, downed at the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5620% → 36%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
80.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+19
82.0%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 19 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
80.6%
Reilly O'Toole run for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
80.2%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+22
81.4%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 7 yds to the LATECH 44 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Vontarrius Dora) to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
79.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 15 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
80.1%
Donovonn Young run for 11 yds to the LaTch 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.9%
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:0474% → 75%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.6%
Hunter Lee run for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
73.4%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+14
74.6%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Trent Taylor for 14 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
76.4%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
76.2%
Sokol, Cody pass incomplete to Taylor, Trent, PENALTY ILLINOIS roughing passer (Ward, Jihad) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
76.8%
Sokol, Cody pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH holding (Danielsen, Jens) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 20
OPP 38
0
75.1%
Cody Sokol pass incomplete to Kenneth DixonSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+11
73.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 11 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
75.0%
Kyle Fischer 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4931% → 34%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
68.7%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Mitch Villemez and Houston Bates for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+20
70.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 20 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
66.3%
Reilly O'Toole run for 7 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
64.1%
Reilly O'Toole run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+13
64.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Jon Davis for 13 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
62.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
62.2%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
63.1%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
65.7%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+43
66.0%
David Reisner 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 8 yds · 5:1570% → 70%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
69.7%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+4
69.1%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+8
67.9%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Paul Turner for 8 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
71.3%
Carlos Henderson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
73.1%
Carlos Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
73.4%
Kenneth Dixon run for 4 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
74.9%
Kenneth Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 8
50
-5
72.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Josh Robinson) to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+19
69.8%
Cody Sokol sacked by LaKeith Walls for a loss of 10 yards to the LaTch 16 Cody Sokol fumbled, forced by LaKeith Walls, recovered by Illin Jihad Ward , return for 0 yards , return for 19 yds to the LaTch 16 Jihad Ward fumbled, recovered by LaTch Cody Sokol , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0671% → 92%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
70.9%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-5
70.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Jens Danielsen) to the LaTch 10Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+17
70.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Hunter Lee for 17 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+70
71.2%
Cody Sokol pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 70 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.5%
Kenneth Dixon run for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:369% → 8%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
91.1%
Reilly O'Toole sacked by Houston Bates for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 17
OWN 15
0
91.3%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
91.9%
Reilly O'Toole pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
92.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 34 yds, downed at the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:3193% → 99%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
92.5%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+14
93.1%
Kenneth Dixon run for 14 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
93.6%
Blake Martin run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
94.9%
Blake Martin run for 3 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
94.6%
Blake Martin run for 2 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.8%
Blake Martin run for 28 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
99.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 17 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.2%
Reilly O'Toole pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+5
99.0%
O'Toole, Reilly pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ILLINOIS49 (Bates, Houston), PENALTY LATECH substitution infraction 5 yards to the LATECH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-3
99.1%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+7
99.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+20
99.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 20 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
99.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-4
99.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Donovonn Young for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 14
OPP 16
0
99.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Donovonn Young run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-16.2
TD · Q4 6:15
Kenneth Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+16
TD · Q2 7:20
Reilly O'Toole pass intercepted for a TD Xavier Woods return for 69 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com