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NEB

Nebraska 42 at USC 45

USC
2014 · National University Holiday Bowl · Dec 27, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:52 · Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:01: Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 71 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +9.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:41: Ameer Abdullah run for 20 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +13.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:03: Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 20 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK) — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:24: Jordan Westerkamp 65 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +8.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:52: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Kenny Bell for Two-Point Conversion) — NEB win probability +24.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 10 of 11NEB made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:49NEB 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52USC 4th & 6 at USC 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:05NEB 4th & 3 at USC 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05USC 4th & 6 at NEB 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:35NEB 4th & 3 at USC 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:07USC 4th & 12 at USC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:52USC 4th & 1 at NEB 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−2.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:38NEB 4th & 15 at NEB 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:13USC 4th & 14 at USC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:11NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:39NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:41USC 4th & 5 at USC 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:13NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:35NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:53USC 4th & 4 at USC 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:28NEB 4th & 7 at USC 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−6.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:15USC 4th & 10 at USC 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:39NEB 4th & 6 at USC 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:43USC 4th & 1 at USC 38, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:52NEB 4th & 2 at USC 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−4.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:19USC 4th & 17 at USC 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−8.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:31NEB 4th & 3 at USC 31, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%−2.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−12.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:19USC 4th & 7 at USC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:54USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:23NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:01USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:41NEB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:06USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:03USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:24NEB Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:52NEB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4635% → 35%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.5%
Ameer Abdullah run for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-4
65.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 10
50
0
65.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 10
50
0
65.5%
Sam Foltz punt for 40 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5566% → 65%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
65.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (JuJu Smith) to the USC 5Similar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+7
65.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 7 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
65.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
65.3%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Steven MitchellSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
65.2%
Kris Albarado punt blocked by TEAM blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4035% → 35%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
65.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 7 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
64.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 8 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 16
0
64.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 16
-1
64.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
64.7%
Drew Brown 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
65.6%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Adoree' Jackson) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:0735% → 36%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
65.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
50
+5
65.3%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 45Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+13
65.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 13 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
65.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 17 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
65.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+6
65.0%
Ameer Abdullah run for 6 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-5
65.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the USC 13Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-5
65.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (Matt Finnin) to the USC 18Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+18
64.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 18 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:4564% → 65%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
64.2%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 7 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+16
64.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Javorius Allen for 16 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
64.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the Neb 48Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+4
64.4%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 4 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+16
64.8%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 16 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
65.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 4 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
65.1%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to George FarmerSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
64.7%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Randall TelferSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
65.0%
Andre Heidari 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:1836% → 36%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
64.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
64.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+19
64.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 19 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
63.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
63.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
63.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2364% → 64%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
64.3%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
64.2%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
63.8%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 10
OWN 5
-2
63.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Adoree' Jackson) to the USC 3Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 12
OWN 3
0
63.5%
Kris Albarado punt for 36 yds, downed at the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2937% → 43%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
63.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
62.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
62.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+10
61.9%
Armstrong Jr., Tommy pass incomplete, PENALTY USC roughing passer (Williams, Leonard) 10 yards to the USC9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEBRASKA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Leonard Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 19 USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leonard Williams) to the USC 9Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the USC 9Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
57.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4959% → 67%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.6%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
58.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
57.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 18 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
59.1%
Javorius Allen run for 7 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
59.6%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
59.2%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
58.3%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
59.2%
Javorius Allen run for 6 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+19
59.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Randall Telfer for 19 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
67.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 17 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2238% → 36%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
62.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
63.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 15
OWN 47
+6
63.8%
Sam Foltz punt for 45 yds , Nelson Agholor returns for 6 yds to the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1365% → 63%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
64.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 14 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
65.0%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
65.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-6
64.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Taariq Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
63.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 33 yds, downed at the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4938% → 37%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
61.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
61.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
61.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
63.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:1665% → 75%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
64.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+14
65.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 14 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
66.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Javorius AllenSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+13
64.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 13 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
66.6%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to George FarmerSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 5 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+28
66.4%
Justin Davis run for 28 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
67.4%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
67.4%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
67.4%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the Neb 2Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.6%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4829% → 27%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
70.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for no gain to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
71.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon ReillySimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
72.9%
Sam Foltz punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:3973% → 75%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
73.0%
Cody Kessler run for 12 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
73.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 12 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
74.6%
Cody Kessler pass intercepted Josh Mitchell return for no gain to the Neb 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17INT
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:0727% → 31%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
72.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-2
72.8%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
73.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 12 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
72.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 17 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
71.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
70.5%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
70.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 21 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-6
68.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Cody Temple for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+8
69.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 8 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
69.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Su'a Cravens return for no gain to the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:4073% → 73%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
72.7%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 12Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+18
72.5%
Javorius Allen run for 18 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.2%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5974% → 73%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
73.5%
Javorius Allen run for 12 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.6%
Javorius Allen run for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
75.4%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Bryce DixonSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
74.4%
Nelson Agholor run for no gain to the USC 43 Nelson Agholor fumbled, recovered by USC Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 53 yds, downed at the Neb 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0727% → 25%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
73.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 5Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
73.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
74.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
75.2%
Sam Foltz punt for 64 yds, downed at the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
84.7%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 71 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0416% → 31%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
83.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 11 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
82.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 17 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
82.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 14 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
81.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
81.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+5
82.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
68.6%
Ameer Abdullah run for 20 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:0977% → 88%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.5%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
76.8%
Javorius Allen run for 9 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
78.3%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 12 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.8%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
87.6%
Javorius Allen run for 44 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1015% → 14%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
84.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 2 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
84.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
85.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Ameer AbdullahSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
86.1%
Sam Foltz punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3688% → 88%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
88.3%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
88.0%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to JuJu SmithSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Kris Albarado punt blocked by Kieron Williams blocked by Kieron WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4717% → 16%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
83.0%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 11Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+2
83.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 2 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
83.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
84.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
85.0%
Ameer Abdullah sacked by Anthony Sarao for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
86.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 8 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
86.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 7Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
83.7%
Drew Brown 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:0786% → 95%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
85.6%
Cody Kessler pass complete to JuJu Smith for 45 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
95.0%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Bryce Dixon for 20 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 28TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 0:516% → 15%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 1 yd to the Neb 22Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
94.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 14 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
94.1%
Ameer Abdullah run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 35Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+65
85.3%
Jordan Westerkamp 65 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4587% → 86%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
87.1%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-4
87.1%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
86.0%
Cody Kessler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
85.6%
Kris Albarado punt for 38 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 30DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2616% → 11%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
83.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 3 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
83.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 15 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
82.9%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
81.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 2 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
86.2%
Ameer Abdullah run for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
87.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 34Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+5
88.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3790% → 91%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
90.0%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
91.3%
Javorius Allen run for no gain to the USC 30Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+8
91.5%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 8 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 32TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:389% → 34%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
91.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Kenny Bell for 5 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Kenny BellSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+33
91.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 33 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
90.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 8 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
89.0%
Terrell Newby run for 8 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
89.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
89.0%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
90.4%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the USC 15Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+15
65.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Kenny Bell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 33PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1178% → 73%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.9%
Cody Kessler pass incomplete to Nelson AgholorSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
76.7%
Javorius Allen run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-9
76.0%
Cody Kessler sacked by Kevin Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
73.2%
Kris Albarado punt for 39 yds, downed at the Neb 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 34DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3730% → 24%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
70.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 11 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
68.7%
Ameer Abdullah run for 10 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
65.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
63.4%
Ameer Abdullah run for 8 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
63.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
66.3%
Ameer Abdullah run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
70.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+1
75.7%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 35PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0587% → 93%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
87.3%
Javorius Allen run for 14 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.3%
Javorius Allen run for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
89.8%
Javorius Allen run for 4 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
92.5%
Javorius Allen run for 1 yd to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 2
OPP 48
-5
94.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 47Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+7
93.3%
Kris Albarado punt for 43 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 7 yds to the NEBRASKA 46 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 36END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:1913% → 14%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
86.8%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+7
88.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Ameer Abdullah for 7 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+12
88.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 12 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST down lat. to Kenny Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:52
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass to Kenny Bell for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+14.3
TD · Q3 9:41
Ameer Abdullah run for 20 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com