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AUB

Auburn 31 at Wisconsin 34

WIS
2014 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2015 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Drew Meyer punt for 32 yds, downed at the Aub 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 46Pregame prior−17.3Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Time remaining+0.2Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:20: Melvin Gordon 53 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +23.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:21: C.J. Uzomah 20 Yd pass from Nick Marshall for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +24.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:58: Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick) — WIS win probability +29.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:55: Cameron Artis-Payne 2 Yd Run for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +49.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:07: Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +41.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00WIS 4th & 13 at AUB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:01WIS 4th & 1 at AUB 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−2.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:23AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19WIS 4th & 17 at AUB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:32AUB 4th & 5 at WIS 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:36AUB 4th & 8 at WIS 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:20WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.2%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:56WIS 4th & 5 at AUB 33, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.4 ptsWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%−5.4
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−17.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:07WIS 4th & 10 at AUB 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−26.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−34.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:01AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:09WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:20WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:21AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:58WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:55AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.0%
Ricardo Louis run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
28.0%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
28.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Daniel Carlson punt for 55 yds, downed at the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:1029% → 32%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+26
28.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 26 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
28.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
28.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
28.8%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY AU pass interference 13 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+43
29.0%
Corey Clement run for 43 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
31.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 7 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
31.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 8 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
31.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 11 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
30.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
30.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Sojourn SheltonSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
30.8%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
30.9%
Daniel Carlson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
33.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
33.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
33.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+8
33.3%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex Erickson, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
33.4%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
33.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
32.9%
Drew Meyer punt for 24 yds, downed at the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4664% → 68%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
35.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 9 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-5
35.0%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+13
35.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 13 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
35.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 7 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
34.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
35.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
34.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+19
34.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 19 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne 2 Yd Run for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:1634% → 35%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
34.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
34.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 8 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
34.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+29
34.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 29 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
35.4%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+7
36.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
36.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Sam ArnesonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
35.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
34.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 32 yds, downed at the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
34.9%
Nick Marshall sacked by Michael Caputo for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 3
+7
35.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 7 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
35.3%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
35.8%
Daniel Carlson punt for 46 yds, downed at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8INT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
37.9%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 1 yd to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
37.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
37.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
38.3%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
38.7%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Kenzel Doe, broken up by Derrick MoncriefSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
38.7%
McEvoy, Tanner pass incomplete to Gordon, Melvin, PENALTY WIS holding 10 yards to the AU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 20
OPP 42
-5
37.4%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 25
OPP 47
0
36.5%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Trovon Reed return for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4064% → 71%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
36.3%
Corey Grant run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+66
29.0%
Ricardo Louis 66 Yd pass from Nick Marshall for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10INT
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
29.9%
Kenzel Doe run for 14 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
30.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
32.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
32.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
32.1%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
31.3%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
32.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 17 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
33.2%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
33.2%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Jermaine Whitehead return for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
29.7%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+6
29.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
29.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
29.1%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete, broken up by Michael CaputoSimilar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
29.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
30.4%
Daniel Carlson punt for 41 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2132% → 30%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
31.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 9 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+10
32.7%
Stave, Joel pass incomplete to Arneson, Sam (R. Therezie), PENALTY AU holding 10 yards to the AU41, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
33.0%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-13
32.8%
Joel Stave sacked by Kris Frost for a loss of 13 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+6
29.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
29.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 23 yds, downed at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5129% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
28.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 17 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
30.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
31.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
31.8%
George Rushing run for 16 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
32.9%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
48.6%
Melvin Gordon 25 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:3759% → 65%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
40.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+18
41.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Cameron Artis-Payne for 18 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
38.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+17
38.1%
Ricardo Louis run for 17 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
37.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
37.6%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
37.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
35.1%
Daniel Carlson 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:0037% → 42%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
37.3%
Corey Clement run for 14 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
38.8%
Stave, Joel pass complete to Erickson, Alex for 7 yards to the WIS46 (J. Whitehead), PENALTY AU offside defense 5 yards to the WIS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+15
40.8%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
41.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 4 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
41.6%
Joel Stave pass intercepted Jermaine Whitehead return for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:5264% → 64%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
36.4%
C. Artis-Payne rush for 12 yards to the AU17, out-of-bounds (Shelton, Sojour), PENALTY AU face mask 2 yards to the AU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+18
36.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 18 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
35.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 12 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
35.0%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+5
35.8%
Quan Bray run for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
35.5%
Nick Marshall run for 15 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.2%
Corey Grant run for no gain to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+23
33.4%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 23 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
31.4%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
31.4%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete, broken up by Michael CaputoSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
33.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Melvin RaySimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
36.0%
Daniel Carlson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 3:1640% → 66%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
40.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
43.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
41.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
41.7%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
42.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Corey Clement for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+53
65.6%
Melvin Gordon 53 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:5937% → 68%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
63.1%
Corey Grant run for 6 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
62.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
63.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
62.5%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 21 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
58.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+21
58.4%
Corey Grant run for 21 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
56.3%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+5
56.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Melvin Ray for 5 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
31.8%
C.J. Uzomah 20 Yd pass from Nick Marshall for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2341% → 79%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
41.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 13 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
44.4%
Kenzel Doe run for 25 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
49.2%
Corey Clement run for 13 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
49.2%
Corey Clement run for 11 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
49.2%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.8%
Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0332% → 82%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
68.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 6 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+12
65.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 12 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
64.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+8
62.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 8 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
62.7%
Ricardo Louis run for 15 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
60.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 11 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
60.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
60.2%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the Wisc 7Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-5
62.7%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-3
62.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+13
67.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, PENALTY WIS pass interference 13 yards to the WIS2, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne 2 Yd Run for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 2:4836% → 59%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.5%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
36.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 20 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
42.2%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
42.0%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-1
34.5%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+7
26.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 7 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
38.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
32.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Melvin Gordon for 5 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
31.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 10 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
34.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
34.2%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
25.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
58.9%
Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
64.7%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
64.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+14
62.2%
Joel Stave pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 14 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
64.7%
Derek Watt run for 2 yds to the Aub 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.7%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Aub 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
62.4%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
79.3%
Rafael Gaglianone 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25MISSED FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 13%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
70.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
74.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-1
79.8%
C.J. Uzomah pass complete to Nick Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 28Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
86.7%
Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Cameron Artis-Payne 2 Yd Run for a TD (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-49.5
FG · Q4 0:07
Rafael Gaglianone 29 yd FG GOOD
+41.5
TD · Q4 7:58
Melvin Gordon 6 Yd Run for a TD (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)
+29.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com