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MIZ

Missouri 33 at Minnesota 17

MINN
2014 · Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2015 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:32 · Braylon Webb run for no gain to the Minn 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense−8.5Pregame prior−3.6Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:04: Bud Sasser 25 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +10.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:48: Maxx Williams 54 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +19.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:16: Maty Mauk 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MIZ win probability +16.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:22: Ryan Santoso 38 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +6.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 9:22: Russell Hansbrough 78 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick) — MIZ win probability +19.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 4:13MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:28MINN 4th & 4 at MIZ 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:54MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56MIZ 4th & 4 at MINN 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.0
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 10, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:39MIZ 4th & 3 at MINN 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−7.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:59MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:03MIZ 4th & 3 at MINN 15, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:38MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22MINN 4th & 8 at MIZ 21, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−10.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:22MIZ 4th & 21 at MINN 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−6.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:32MIZ 4th & 3 at MINN 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−2.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−16.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:48MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−2.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:51MINN 4th & 17 at MIZ 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:45MINN 4th & 8 at MIZ 8, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 5:42MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:04MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:48MINN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16MIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:22MIZ Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:51MIZ Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5366% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
34.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
34.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Mitch Morse) to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
34.8%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Derrick Wells return for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:1835% → 36%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
34.9%
David Cobb run for 18 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to David CobbSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
35.3%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-5
35.6%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 44 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Markus Golden, recovered by Misso Harold Brantley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:5365% → 65%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.2%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
35.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 7 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
35.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 7 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.4%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted, touchback. Briean Boddy-Calhoun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:4636% → 42%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.9%
David Cobb run for no gain to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
36.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 7 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
36.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
36.7%
KJ Maye run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
50
+9
37.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Lincoln Plsek for 9 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
37.5%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
37.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
38.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Jon Christenson) to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+15
37.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 15 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
38.6%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
39.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
42.3%
Rodrick Williams Jr. 20 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2559% → 57%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
42.4%
Maty Mauk run for 6 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
42.8%
Christian Brinser punt for 53 yds , Craig James returns for 10 yds to the Minn 44 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (David Cobb) to the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3543% → 46%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
42.9%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-3
43.4%
KJ Maye run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 17Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+35
43.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 35 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
45.2%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+2
45.2%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+5
45.6%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
45.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2755% → 53%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
45.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 6 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
45.5%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
46.2%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+19
47.4%
Harold Brantley run for 19 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
45.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 19 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
45.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
45.5%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
46.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Darius WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
46.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 37 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1248% → 49%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
48.3%
David Cobb run for 8 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 10
-5
48.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Maxx Williams) to the Minn 5Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
48.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 11
-1
48.7%
David Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 10 David Cobb fumbled, forced by Donavin Newsom, recovered by Minn David CobbSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+37
48.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 37 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:4852% → 55%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
47.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 21 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
46.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
47.3%
Maty Mauk run for 5 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+12
49.0%
Marcus Murphy run for 12 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
47.9%
Maty Mauk run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
48.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud Sasser, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
45.4%
Andrew Baggett 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2848% → 49%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
47.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
47.9%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
47.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 9 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
49.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Miles Thomas for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
50.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-7
50.8%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 37 Mitch Leidner fumbled, recovered by Minn KJ MayeSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+9
48.5%
Peter Mortell punt for 39 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 9 yds to the Misso 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:4352% → 66%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
48.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 6 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+16
47.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 16 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
46.0%
Maty Mauk run for 20 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
44.8%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
34.3%
Bud Sasser 25 Yd pass from Maty Mauk (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5940% → 42%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.6%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
41.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 9 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
41.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:4064% → 69%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
35.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 25 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
34.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 9 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
34.8%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-2
35.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
31.5%
Andrew Baggett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0435% → 54%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.8%
David Cobb run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
34.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 20 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
54.1%
Maxx Williams 54 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5350% → 47%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
50.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
50.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+3
51.9%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+3
52.7%
Christian Brinser punt for 37 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 3 yds to the Minn 34 Marcus Jones fumbled, recovered by Misso Tyler HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:0954% → 70%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
46.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
46.1%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to Sasser, Bud (Boddy-Calhoun, Briean), PENALTY MINNESOTA roughing passer (Wilson, Damien) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
46.1%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+18
29.9%
Maty Mauk 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3839% → 45%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
38.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 20 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
40.4%
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-2
40.5%
David Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
38.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Harold BrantleySimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
45.0%
Ryan Santoso 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 29 yds · 6:0058% → 61%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Devon Wright) to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-2
39.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
41.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 14 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
38.1%
Maty Mauk sacked by Jack Lynn for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+12
39.1%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
37.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
36.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 8 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
35.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-11
35.9%
Maty Mauk sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+5
40.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 15
OPP 40
-6
36.9%
Maty Mauk sacked by Michael Amaefula for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
39.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0743% → 45%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
43.0%
David Cobb run for 5 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+21
43.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Berkley Edwards for 21 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
44.6%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 34 Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Michael Scherer, recovered by Misso Braylon WebbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2868% → 64%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.0%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jason Reese, broken up by Cedric ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
32.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 36Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+9
35.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 9 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
36.0%
Braylon Webb run for no gain to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3944% → 41%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.3%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
42.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Berkley Edwards, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+5
40.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Isaac Fruechte for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
41.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for no gain to the Misso 32 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Braylon Webb) to the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 2:2063% → 83%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
37.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 9Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+9
38.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 9 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
38.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
36.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 1 yd to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+78
16.9%
Russell Hansbrough 78 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:0917% → 14%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
16.8%
David Cobb pass complete to Mitch Leidner for 9 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
18.7%
David Cobb run for 2 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ MayeSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
16.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 12 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
18.4%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
16.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 17
OPP 48
0
14.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to David CobbSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
13.6%
Peter Mortell punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4787% → 97%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+69
12.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 69 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
9.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
8.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
3.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 48 yds · 2:544% → 2%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
3.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 10 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
3.6%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
3.7%
David Cobb run for 3 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
3.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to David Cobb for 7 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 29
-1
4.0%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
3.8%
David Cobb run for 9 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
4.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Lincoln Plsek for 4 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+9
3.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Maxx Williams for 9 yds to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Goodger, broken up by Ian SimonSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Maxx Williams, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.4%
KJ Maye pass incomplete to Isaac FruechteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:3698% → 98%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 7Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 6
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:22
Russell Hansbrough 78 Yd Run (Andrew Baggett Kick)
-19.9
TD · Q3 11:48
Maxx Williams 54 Yd pass from Mitch Leidner (Ryan Santoso Kick)
+19.5
TD · Q3 9:16
Maty Mauk 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com