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UGA

Georgia 37 at Louisville 14

LOU
2014 · Belk Bowl · Dec 30, 2014 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:59 · Ryan Johnson punt for 39 yds , Reggie Davis returns for no gain to the Geo 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−15.7Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:25: Gerald Christian 11 Yd pass from Kyle Bolin (John Wallace Kick) — LOU win probability +3.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:40: Nick Chubb run for 31 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +6.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:41: Sony Michel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK) — UGA win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:48: Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +14.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:48: LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 30 — UGA win probability +3.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:40LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:03UGA 4th & 20 at UGA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:03LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:33UGA 4th & 8 at LOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:58UGA 4th & 5 at LOU 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:28LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 31, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:50UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:38LOU 4th & 7 at UGA 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:41UGA 4th & 11 at LOU 36, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:20UGA 4th & 4 at LOU 24, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 10, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:22LOU 4th & 7 at UGA 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:24UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:40UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:41UGA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:48LOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:02UGA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1027% → 29%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
27.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
27.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+8
28.0%
Kyle Bolin run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
28.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
28.8%
Ryan Johnson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:0871% → 72%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
28.9%
Nick Chubb run for 20 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
29.0%
Hutson Mason sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 26Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+4
29.3%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 4 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
29.6%
Mason, Hutson pass incomplete to Conley, Chris, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul 15 yards to the GEORGIA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
29.3%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
29.3%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+5
29.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 5 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
29.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Kenneth Towns) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+1
29.6%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+44
27.7%
Chris Conley 44 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 3:3528% → 33%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
28.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+28
28.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 28 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
29.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 8 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
29.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
29.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 11 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+20
29.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 20 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
30.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 11Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
30.2%
Bolin, Kyle pass complete to Parker, DeVante for 11 yards to the GEORGIA0, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal touching (Parker, DeVante) 1 yards to the GEORGIA12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
32.9%
Gerald Christian 11 Yd pass from Kyle Bolin (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:0068% → 66%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
32.2%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 10Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+7
32.4%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+9
33.0%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 9 yds to the Geo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
32.4%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 26Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
32.6%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Michael BennettSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
33.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 13 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
32.0%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
32.3%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-13
32.7%
Hutson Mason sacked by Deiontrez Mount for a loss of 13 yards to the Geo 29 GEORGIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Hutson Mason) to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
34.4%
Collin Barber punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Eli Rogers at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5734% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
34.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
34.5%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
34.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
34.5%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
34.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Geo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:1767% → 68%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
33.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 3 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
33.2%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 38Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+20
33.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 20 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
32.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 9 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+8
31.9%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 8 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.0%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.4%
Brendan Douglas run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
33.2%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
32.4%
Marshall Morgan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0833% → 32%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
33.2%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+14
33.4%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Gerald Christian for 14 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
35.2%
L.J. Scott run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-9
34.9%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Ramik Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
32.7%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
32.2%
Ryan Johnson punt for 39 yds , Reggie Davis returns for no gain to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:1367% → 76%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.3%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Quayvon HicksSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
33.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+32
33.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Sony Michel for 32 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
30.8%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
31.0%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
31.0%
Hutson Mason run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
24.1%
Nick Chubb run for 31 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+40
25.0%
Reggie Bonnafon pass intercepted Dominick Sanders return for 40 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1576% → 78%
Q2 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
23.9%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
23.9%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
24.1%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
22.0%
Marshall Morgan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5223% → 22%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
22.5%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Mike Thornton and Jordan Jenkins for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+10
22.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 10 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
22.4%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
22.1%
Ryan Johnson pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
20.1%
Brice Ramsey pass intercepted Terell Floyd return for no gain to the Lvile 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:5822% → 21%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
21.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
21.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+24
20.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 24 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
22.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
22.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 9 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
22.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
22.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
21.5%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
21.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 36 yds, downed at the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
19.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2980% → 83%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
20.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
19.8%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
19.8%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 4 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
18.8%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
18.3%
Nick Chubb run for 10 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+19
18.0%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Justin Scott-Wesley for 19 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
17.2%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-1
17.1%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 32 Sony Michel fumbled, forced by Lorenzo Mauldin, recovered by Lvile Lorenzo MauldinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:4322% → 23%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
21.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
21.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+14
21.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 14 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
22.6%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted Dominick Sanders return for 1 yd to the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3482% → 83%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
17.9%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
16.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+1
16.5%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 48Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
16.2%
Brice Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
17.5%
Collin Barber punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Eli Rogers at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:0220% → 20%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
20.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+29
19.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 29 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.3%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
20.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
20.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
19.5%
Ryan Johnson punt for 43 yds, downed at the Geo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
3 plays · 97 yds · 0:4585% → 96%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+82
15.1%
Nick Chubb run for 82 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
13.1%
Sony Michel run for 13 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 3:368% → 17%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
7.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 12 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
5.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
5.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
5.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 15 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
5.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 22 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
6.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Brandon Radcliff) to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
5.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
5.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 15
OPP 22
-5
5.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Keith Towbridge) to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+21
5.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds to the Geo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
16.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 37 yds · 6:4988% → 93%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
12.0%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 26Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
12.0%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 26Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+14
12.2%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Chris Conley for 14 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
10.8%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
10.8%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
9.3%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
9.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
8.8%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
8.5%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Jeb BlazevichSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
8.3%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.3%
Brendan Douglas run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
7.0%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Chris ConleySimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-1
7.1%
Brendan Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
7.5%
Brice Ramsey pass incomplete to Kenneth TownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.4%
Kyle Bolin pass intercepted Damian Swann return for no gain to the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:3593% → 97%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.1%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
6.6%
Nick Chubb run for 15 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
6.0%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
5.9%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+14
5.7%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Kenneth Towns for 14 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
5.4%
Brendan Douglas run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
5.0%
Brendan Douglas run for no gain to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+4
5.0%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
2.8%
Marshall Morgan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
3.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
3.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
3.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
3.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds, downed at the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0698% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
2.1%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
1.8%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+30
1.7%
Nick Chubb run for 30 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.4%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
0.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 17 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
0.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 22 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 6 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
0.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Matt MiltonSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-3
0.8%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Ray Drew for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 46Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+18
0.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 18 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
0.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 18 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-18
0.6%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 18 yards to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:48
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q3 5:41
Sony Michel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 6:40
Nick Chubb run for 31 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
-6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com