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HOU

Houston 35 at Pittsburgh 34

PITT
2014 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Jan 2, 2015 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:10 · Logan Piper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+19.8Garbage-time factor+5.8Score differential+6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7Pregame prior+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:40: Kenneth Farrow 2 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard PAT blocked) — HOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Isaac Bennett 12 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +9.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:10: J.P. Holtz 16 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +10.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:58: Demarcus Ayers 29 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:59: Deontay Greenberry 25 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Greg Ward Jr. Pass to Deontay Greenberry for Two-Point Conversion) — HOU win probability +67.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:44PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09HOU 4th & 21 at PITT 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:35HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:58HOU 4th & 1 at PITT 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−2.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:23HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:45HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:31PITT 4th & 1 at HOU 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−2.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:10HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:14PITT 4th & 10 at HOU 11, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:58HOU 4th & 13 at PITT 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:02PITT 4th & 10 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q2 14:02PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:40HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27PITT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:10PITT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:58PITT Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:43HOU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:41HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:59HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.2 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.8%−3.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3555% → 55%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
55.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
55.0%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
55.1%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+5
55.1%
Matt Galambos run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.3%
Isaac Bennett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
55.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
55.6%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
55.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:4945% → 44%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
55.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 16 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.2%
Demarcus Ayers run for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+26
55.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 26 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
54.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+9
54.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
54.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
54.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-7
54.6%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Bam Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 16
OPP 30
-5
55.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 21
OPP 35
0
55.7%
Logan Piper punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 6:5655% → 63%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
55.4%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
55.4%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 7 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+24
55.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 24 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
56.2%
Isaac Bennett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
56.3%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
57.2%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 12 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
57.7%
Chad Voytik sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
57.3%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+17
56.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 17 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
58.0%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
58.1%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+3
57.6%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.2%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.3%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.9%
James Conner 1 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5938% → 37%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
61.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
61.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to William JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.6%
Logan Piper punt for 42 yds, downed at the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4863% → 62%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
62.7%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
62.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+12
62.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
62.6%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Kevin WeatherspoonSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
61.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:4638% → 44%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
62.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 7 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+10
61.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 10 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
61.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-1
62.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
63.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+16
64.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 16 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
61.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
61.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
62.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
63.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
62.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 20 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
61.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 9 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
61.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
61.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.9%
Kenneth Farrow 2 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5560% → 73%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
59.9%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
59.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
58.9%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete to Ford, Dontez, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
62.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
61.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 17 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.7%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
62.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to J.P. Holtz for 10 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
63.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+13
63.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 13 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
73.1%
Isaac Bennett 12 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4830% → 28%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
70.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 21 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+1
71.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
71.7%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:1872% → 75%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
72.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
50
+16
73.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kevin Weatherspoon for 16 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
74.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
73.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+52
75.3%
Chris Blewitt 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0326% → 23%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
74.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
74.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
74.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+6
75.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+7
75.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 7 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+1
76.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
77.2%
Logan Piper punt for 60 yds , Tyler Boyd returns for no gain to the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:2277% → 92%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
76.7%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+27
77.2%
Chad Voytik run for 12 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.7%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
79.3%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+9
78.9%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 9 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.3%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
80.3%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
79.9%
Chris James run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
79.2%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
81.4%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+11
81.7%
Chad Voytik run for 11 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
81.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
82.5%
Chad Voytik run for 16 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
92.1%
J.P. Holtz 16 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:489% → 9%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
90.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 10 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Kenneth Farrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
91.2%
Logan Piper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Boyd at the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:0293% → 99%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
92.6%
James Conner run for 10 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+16
93.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 16 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
93.3%
Chris James run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+15
93.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for 15 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
93.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.9%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
94.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 7 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+12
95.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 12 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
95.2%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+7
95.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Rachid Ibrahim for 7 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
James Conner 5 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:503% → 6%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
96.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
96.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+31
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 31 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
96.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 17 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
96.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
96.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+14
96.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 14 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.3%
Kenneth Farrow 8 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:1397% → 99%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
96.6%
Chris James run for 17 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
96.9%
Chris James run for 7 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
97.1%
Chris James run for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
97.2%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+20
97.4%
James Conner run for 20 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
97.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+5
97.7%
Rachid Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
98.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
97.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
99.3%
Chris Blewitt 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:161% → 7%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
99.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 9 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-8
99.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+43
99.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 43 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
99.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 32 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.5%
Deontay Greenberry 8 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:195% → 14%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
94.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+23
95.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 23 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
94.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 13 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
93.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 13
OPP 29
0
94.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
94.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+29
85.6%
Demarcus Ayers 29 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 0:4115% → 79%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
84.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 38 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
77.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-1
79.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 16
OPP 25
0
84.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+25
21.0%
Deontay Greenberry 25 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Greg Ward Jr. Pass to Deontay Greenberry for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:4240% → 24%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
40.3%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Tyler Boyd for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
41.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+15
36.1%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
50
0
35.7%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
50
0
34.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 10
50
0
28.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Tyler BoydSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 10
50
0
23.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Kevin WeatherspoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -16 yds · 0:0294% → 93%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
50
-15
6.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 35
-1
7.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:59
Deontay Greenberry 25 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Greg Ward Jr. Pass to Deontay Greenberry for Two-Point Conversion)
-67.7
TD · Q3 5:10
J.P. Holtz 16 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)
+10.5
TD · Q2 1:27
Isaac Bennett 12 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com